ReneeAlphaView

Stocks | ETFs | Macro
Daily notes on trends, sentiment, and risk
Not financial advice

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

Top 10 Stocks by 52-Week Relative Strength
1.SNDK – memory leader, strong AI storage demand
https://t.co/p56WnZeAx7 – HBM & DRAM cycle strength
3.WDC – storage cycle recovery
4.STX – AI data storage demand
5.LITE – optical networking for AI datacenters
6.TTMI – AI server PCB demand
7.NVMI – semiconductor metrology growth
8.TPL – energy + data infrastructure tailwind
9.POWL – power infrastructure for datacenters
10.BWXT – nuclear / energy demand from AI expansion

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

SPX / ES Playbook
• 🚀 CALL WALL | $6,700 Spx /$6,735 ES
The ceiling. Expect heavy supply. Bulls need a miracle to clear this on the first attempt.
• 🧲 MAGNET | $6,600 /$6,635 ES
Gravity center. Price will pivot here. This is where the big money is parked.
• 📍 SPOT | $6,582 /$6,618ES
The baseline. Intraday stability lives or dies here.
• ⚠️ TRIGGER | $6,535 / $6,570ES
The Bull/Bear Divide. Below 6,535, the party is over. Sentiment shifts to sell-side fast.
• 🛡️ PUT WALL | $6,500 / $6,535ES
The floor. Major gamma support. If we flush here, look for the bounce.

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

Why I don’t think $SPX has bottomed yet:

•Price Zone: 5,850–6,050. This is the convergence area of the 250-day moving average, the 38.2% retracement of the bull market that began in 2024, and the largest Put Wall in the options market.
•Time Window: June 15 – June 25, 2026. The logic is: April CPI shock → mid-May Fed leadership transition turbulence (the Kevin Warsh factor) → June 19 quarterly OpEx triggering a liquidity washout.
•Microstructural Pressure Point: 6,600 (Gamma Flip Line). As long as SPX remains below this level, dealers become machines that chase price in both directions—selling into weakness and selling rallies mechanically, which smothers any rebound.

A Structural Battle:

1. Defensive Phase (Now – Mid-April)
• Watch $VIX / $VVIX. If $VIX rises while $VVIX stays flat, it suggests the market is undergoing orderly hedging, meaning the real crash has not started yet.
•Strategy: Use the current B-wave rebound (targeting around 6,650–6,700) to sell out-of-the-money calls through Bear Call Spreads, collecting premium to hedge spot exposure.

2. Selloff Phase (After April CPI – Mid-May)
•Key signal: Watch for SPX to break below 6,400. Once that level breaks, it could trigger a waterfall-style Gamma Squeeze to the downside.
•Strategy: Build Long Puts or Put Debit Spreads. Focus on June expiration options to capture the potential explosion in implied IV.

3. Bottom-Fishing Phase (Mid-to-Late June)
•Must-have signals:
•VIX spike: $VIX surges sharply above 35–40.
•Term structure normalizes: Near-month VIX futures begin trading below deferred-month futures.
•. Watch for a bullish divergence after an extreme negative $TICK reading (below -1000).
•Strategy: Gradually sell Cash-Secured Puts around 5,950 to accumulate exposure below 6,000, or directly initiate long-dated Call positions.

4. Conclusion: Don’t Die Before Dawn

The current rebound (March 26) is a liquidity window for institutions to reduce exposure.

The underlying truth: The market still needs a real capitulation—the kind of moment when financial headlines are filled with “recession is inevitable” and “the Iran crisis cannot be resolved.” That is when the best opportunity appears to buy blood-in-the-streets inventory below 6,000

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

$SPX positioning suggests a Pin Day setup.（3/26）

• Spot: 6591
• Vol Trigger: 6585
• Max Pain: 6650
• Put Wall: 6500
• Call Wall: 6700

Dealers likely long gamma → volatility suppressed.

As long as 6585 holds, path of least resistance = drift toward 6650 magnet.

Break > 6625 → squeeze potential into 6700 call wall.

Lose 6585 → downside opens to 6550–6500.

Range dominates until a catalyst appears
#spy #es #spx

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

How Global Tensions Are Reshaping U.S. Equity Risk - OpenMarkets https://t.co/ZN9c8UN1us

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

I’m bullish on $PDD.
Not because the risks aren’t real, but because the valuation already prices them in.

At ~10x earnings, the market is positioned for disaster.
That means any “normal” result — especially if Temu efficiency is improving and losses stop expanding — could flip the narrative fast.

If growth holds and margins stabilize, institutions may have to reprice the stock.

Low expectations. Asymmetric upside. Short squeeze potential.

#PDD

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

🚀 SpaceX IPO is getting closer

According to The Information, SpaceX may confidentially file for IPO as soon as this week.

• Potential valuation: $1.5T+
• Could become the largest IPO ever
• AI + space infrastructure narrative heating up

SpaceX IPO Key Beneficiaries

• EchoStar (SATS): Direct arbitrage; holds a 3% equity stake.
• Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX): Retail proxy; a newly listed fund (March 2026) with SpaceX, OpenAI, and xAI in its top holdings.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Industry peer; sets a higher valuation ceiling.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Infrastructure; supplies Space AI chips.
• UFO / ARKX: Sector ETFs; captures broad industry growth.

#spacex #VCX #rklb #nvda #Arkk #Sats

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

$SPX Intra-day Strategy (Mar 24)
• Long Entry: $6,550 - $6,555 (Hold/Support)
• Target: $6,580/$6,600
• Stop Loss: $6,545
• Short Entry: $6,595 - $6,600 (Resistance)
• Target: $6,570
• Risk Warning: Break below $6,545 triggers a drop to $6,525 / $6,500.
• Action: No bottom fishing; wait for $6,500 reversal.

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

📊 ADP | 4 Weeks Ending Mar 7, 2026

U.S. private employers added ~10K jobs/week, up modestly from 9K/week in late February.

• Feb path: 12.75K → 15.5K → 9K → 10K
• Stabilization, not a clean cooling trend
• Official Feb NER: 63K, strongest since July 2025

Takeaway:
The labor market is soft, but not breaking.
Low-hiring, low-firing.
Mixed signals, not a straight line down.

👀 Next key catalyst: NFP on Apr 3

#Jobs #ADP #USEconomy #Fed #MacroMonday

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

⚠️ Risk Warnings:
1️⃣ Gamma Trap: Below $6,605, price action is non-linear. Watch for downside acceleration if $6,550 breaks.
2️⃣ IV Skew: Puts are expensive. Use Bear Put Spreads to offset high IV costs for bearish plays.
#SPX #OptionsTrading #GEX #Volatility

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

🚨 US regulator bans imports of new foreign-made routers, citing security concerns

Potential winners:
• NETGEAR – consumer router share shift narrative
• Cisco Systems – enterprise networking security demand
• Jabil / Flex / Sanmina – potential manufacturing reshoring play

Biggest loser narrative: foreign low-cost router vendors losing US market access.

If supply chain shifts domestically, this could quietly reshape the $networking space. 📡

#stocks #AIinfrastructure #supplychain #NTGR

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

6460 tested ✔️ reaction confirmed.

Path unchanged:
• hold 6460 → bounce toward 6645–6700
• lose 6460 → 6370 becomes magnet

Until 6700 breaks, this remains a tactical market, not a trend market

#TradePlan #Spx

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

SPX Game Plan - Next Week

6460 = must hold
Flush → bounce to 6645–6700
Break 6460 → 6370 in play

Until 6700 breaks, rallies are tactical.

#TradePlan #SPX #SPY #MarketVolatility

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

Tomorrow = inflation vs growth test.

Key data:

Unit Labor Costs (cons. 3.4%)
PMI
2Y Auction

If labor costs stay hot → pressure on yields → headwind for QQQ.

If growth softens enough → yields may ease → relief bounce possible.

Market is trading the rate path, not just the data.

#SPX #QQQ #Macro

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

Market is bouncing — but gamma is getting more negative.

Institutions are still hedging downside risk.

SPX remains below zero gamma (6618), which means dealers are still in a short gamma regime.

Expect:

fast moves
sharp reversals
unstable trend structure

Key levels:
6583.75 = Spot

6584 = volatility trigger
6618 = zero gamma
6590/6620 = resistance

This is a tactical rally, not confirmed trend.

#SPX #Gamma #Volatility

[ReneeAlphaView @ReneeAlphaView]

Has risk actually disappeared — or merely been delayed?

Today’s move is driven by a rapid unwind of tail-risk hedges:

• Oil sharply lower
• Gold pulling back
• BTC bid
• Small caps outperforming mega caps

This is classic risk premium compression, not a structural improvement in growth.

The market is effectively trading:

“Worst-case scenario postponed” ≠ “macro risks resolved.”

Two major risks remain underpriced:

1️⃣ The geopolitical narrative is not yet confirmed across all parties
2️⃣ The prior oil spike has already tightened financial conditions via inflation expectations and yields

If tensions re-escalate, the transmission mechanism is well known:

higher oil → higher yields → lower multiples → pressure on equities

Today looks more like a risk-on squeeze within a fragile macro regime, rather than the start of a durable trend leg higher.

Positioning should still assume:

• elevated headline sensitivity
• persistent volatility in energy and rates
• unstable cross-asset correlations

Trade the reaction, not the narrative