Replication Markets

Reliable research replicates...you can bet on it!

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

Also, @michaelbg01 has nearly finished a manuscript on the preprint forecasts -- using only the surveys for clarity.

And we are collaborating with @replicats on correlates of good forecasting. (Expecting to mostly corroborate earlier work, but worth a check.)

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@ReplicationMkts forecasters:

Now only six covid reprint prizes left to claim: DMS, mudiku, Poison, davison, r6XqxtYY1V, josephharvey6.

https://t.co/heqK8kWBKo

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@ReplicationMkts
folks: Anyone know these forecasters? They haven't responded to our prize emails.

In other news, catch the Economist article on mainstream prediction markets: https://t.co/wMvKeXSlHB

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

Troof_ claimed!
And then there were 8.

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

9 preprint market winners yet to claim your prize - please check your filters for email from [email protected]:

DMS
mudiku
Poison
davidoj
r6XqxtYY1V
josephharvey6
Troof_
KRH
reMarketSubject88

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

Announcing COVID-19 Preprint Market Winners:

https://t.co/heqK8kF0lO

We had 54 winners, with prizes from $16 to $1,269. Congratulations all, and thanks again to all forecasters. And to @FetzerFrFund for the prizes.

@ReplicationMkts

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

Announcing COVID-19 Preprint Market Winners:

https://t.co/heqK8kF0lO

We had 54 winners, with prizes from $16 to $1,269. Congratulations all, and thanks again to all forecasters. And to @FetzerFrFund for the prizes.

@ReplicationMkts

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@AlvaroDeMenard (The fourth nomination for paper #114 was actually the published version of paper #39, similar name and authors but meta-analysis versus early clinical report. More confusingly, #39 changed name and author order
during its four versions on medRxiv.) 2/2

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@ReplicationMkts forecasters: We're resolving the COVID-19 *Preprint* markets. Have a look at proposed resolutions before we finalize prizes.

https://t.co/FJ5qmVCEX1

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@AlvaroDeMenard We accepted 3 of the 4 nominated publications, and updated prize calculations. Just finished vetting them and it seems we have 61 winners splitting the $10,920, in amounts from about $15 to about $1,280. Plan is to announce details on Monday.

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@AlvaroDeMenard Whoa. I missed that due to display rounding. Let me check with Michael. Might take a bit - it's 3:30am in NZ.

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

These were the forecasts on future citation and publication for 400 popular COVID-19 preprints.

These prizes were funded by @FetzerFrFund, not DARPA SCORE. Survey prizes were paid in Nov. 2020. Markets had to wait for resolutions in Sep. 2021.

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@joshmnicholson Looks like it won't help resolve a JIF-based question, but an interesting metric. Seems to range 0.7 - 1.0 right now, yes?

https://t.co/yK9kChVOzW

[Scite @scite]

We found that SJI does not correlate with the Journal Impact Factor (JIF), which is not surprising because by virtue of how it is calculated (an average number of citations per article) JIF considers all citations, including contradicting and supporting, as equal.

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

Resolving COVID-400 markets. Anyone have Journal Impact Factors (or similar) for:

* Communications Medicine
* Int'l J. Research in Medical Sciences
* J. of Rare Diseases and Orphan Drugs
* Lancet Microbe
* Lancet Regional Health - Europe
* The Innovation

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@joshmnicholson Thanks, will do!

Most were first published 2020, so there is no Clarivate JIF.

Though I.J. Res. in Med.Sci. started 2013.

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@mvbulutay Well done! And thank you.

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

@replyallguy After U.S. Thanksgiving I'd like to post our forecasting data, which at least will allow comparisons. And the 30 resolutions in Round 11.

(Also prizes for the preprint round. It was kinda strange, but all 400 resolved.)

[Replication Markets @ReplicationMkts]

Prizes, finally!

We are pleased at last to announce the *market* prizes for Replication Markets: 258 winners split $142K, with 121 questions resolving. (We are contacting the winners directly.)

https://t.co/Gh2TgBzk1u