RepricedRisk

Markets move when Risk gets Repriced. Macro, policy, rates, credit, equities, and geopolitics.
*Not investment advice.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

Building this account from scratch around markets, macro, geopolitics, liquidity, and trading process.

Industry experience. Decades of trading.

Unique models and viewpoints.

📌 Follow for more.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@sidprabhu Couldn't agree more. Great post.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@MarioNawfal Trying to break out now

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

The 30-year US Treasury yield just hit a 19-year high, reaching levels last seen in 2007.

After a long basing range, it is now testing the upper boundary. If this breaks cleanly, the move higher could accelerate quickly.

That would be a serious problem for housing, long-duration stocks and the federal budget.

#Treasuries #Bonds #InterestRates #Fed #FOMC

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

The 30-year US Treasury yield just hit a 19-year high, reaching levels last seen in 2007.

After a long basing range, it is now testing the upper boundary. If this breaks cleanly, the move higher could accelerate quickly.

That would be a serious problem for housing, long-duration stocks and the federal budget.

#Treasuries #Bonds #InterestRates #Fed #FOMC

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@KobeissiLetter https://t.co/Dcy5tvVs6u

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

July FOMC Review - Three Dissents + What Changed in the Statement
Read the full Substack report: https://t.co/dCKUFDKhzo

#FOMC #FED #Warsh #Reserve

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

July FOMC Review - Three Dissents + What Changed in the Statement
Read the full Substack report: https://t.co/dCKUFDKhzo

#FOMC #FED #Warsh #Reserve

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

What changed in the FOMC Statement:

The descriptive body of the statement remained almost completely frozen from the June release, with a 61% exact wording overlap across the text. Outside of the vote tally and date, the Committee made a single verb substitution in the opening section:

• Added: “The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.”

• Dropped: “The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.”

• Swapping “reaffirmed” for “is continuing” shifts the balance sheet posture from an active re-endorsement to a passive background process.

#Fed #FOMC #Rates #Bonds #Federal #Warsh

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

Wednesday is going to be absurd:
2:00 PM: #Fed decision
2:30 PM: #Warsh press conference
After the close: $MSFT + $MET earnings

Then Thursday at 8:30 AM: PCE inflation + Q2 GDP.

Rates, inflation, growth and the AI trade, all packed into 19 hours.

#FOMC #StockMarket #AI

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@hkuppy I hope everyone is okay, man.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@kevinnbass The average age in a lot of these countries is older than it was 10 years ago.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@mcm_ct_usa I wonder if we're missing something

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@StealthQE4 NVDA down 5% today and another 2% AH. Not a good movement by the General.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@davevermilion Yeah, I've been noticing this too. Some of the best performers over the last few weeks. Maybe some people are looking to diversify out of tech as far away as possible.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

Wednesday is going to be absurd:
2:00 PM: #Fed decision
2:30 PM: #Warsh press conference
After the close: $MSFT + $MET earnings

Then Thursday at 8:30 AM: PCE inflation + Q2 GDP.

Rates, inflation, growth and the AI trade, all packed into 19 hours.

#FOMC #StockMarket #AI

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

My weekly market calendar with seasonality effects. Historically, this week, the days lean bearish, but there has been outsized bull days. We also have the #FOMC and the #PCE.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@RBAdvisors It will show up eventually

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

This isn’t a political post. It’s a market question.

#AOC now leads the latest New Hampshire poll of the prospective 2028 Democratic field.

A #political shift like this could have major implications for taxes, regulation, healthcare, energy, banks and Big Tech.

Markets are still treating the next election as distant noise.

What does that repricing look like for the market?

#Election2028 #StockMarket #President

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@Kalshi Local LLMs are where we are going

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@business Producers saw this coming weeks ago. https://t.co/zGHxNmqdwK

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

One of the strongest oil signals on the board that no one has paid attention too.

WTI producers and merchants are now net long 20% of open interest, the highest reading on my data.

The commercial side of the market has continued to move sharply toward protection against higher crude prices.

#WTI #Oil #Commodities #Energy #Brent

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@KobeissiLetter Everyone is long. Which usually doesn't end well. The question is when? https://t.co/b3XzCabjNZ

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

Another thing related to my earlier valuations post is that households are extremely loaded into equities.

Whether you look at:
• equity allocation
• equities as a share of total assets
• equities relative to disposable income
• equities relative to cash-like assets

The message is clear household equity exposure is near the top end of history.

A lot of the easy upside from “more participation” may already be behind us.

$SPX $SPY #Stocks #Markets #Investing #Valuation

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@KobeissiLetter Here is my calendar for the week with seasonality effects included. https://t.co/u6AxK6dpXA

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

My weekly market calendar with seasonality effects. Historically, this week, the days lean bearish, but there has been outsized bull days. We also have the #FOMC and the #PCE.

[RepricedRisk @RepricedRisk]

@business Models are saying the heat is coming back to the east in August after a reprieve over the last couple of weeks.