Michael Kelly

Christian | My Daughter’s Jester | Twin Dad

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

Most companies don’t compound across decades. A small number do, and what they share is identifiable. I built a model that forecasts this. Now I’m testing it in public markets, with real positions tracked daily. 🧵

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@Jason Now that it’s 2-0, it’s about to get a lot worse.

They need to extend the series

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

I’ve had a lot of good and bad interactions. This take is 100% true

[TJ Parker⚡️ @tjparker]

This VC meme is very funny.

If someone falling asleep, not liking your idea, or ghosting you gets you bent out of shape, NGMI.

Go spend a day in private equity or try competing with an incumbent.

Venture is arguably the most pleasant form of dealmaking in the world.

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@pmarca I’m sure this is 100% true when you’re in the room.

In my experience it’s not true 100% when you’re not.

[Oliver Beavers @oliverbeavers]

@pmarca Yeah, but who missed out here?

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@andrewarruda Only real ones.

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@FactoryAI This is a feature not a company

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@t_blom This is exactly what we do at Entrecore. If you have this problem, reach out.

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

May close on the public-markets experiment.
One month in, almost triple the S&P 500. R-squared 0.19 (81% of moves explained by something other than the index; active managers aim for <0.5). Information ratio 4.47 (anything above 1.0 is strong over multi-year; the bar is well cleared early).
Sample is thin, will compress as it grows. Direction is what the framework is supposed to produce.

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

Most companies don’t compound across decades. A small number do, and what they share is identifiable. I built a model that forecasts this. Now I’m testing it in public markets, with real positions tracked daily. 🧵

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

As I’ve been saying our competition at Entrecore are the consulting firms.

If the plan is to charge customers millions to set up this framework, I like our chances

[McKinsey & Company @McKinsey]

Agentic orchestration layers allow AI agents, enterprise systems, and data connections to work together across functions.

As cognitive bottlenecks shrink, that allows decision-making to speed up, coordination to improve and new operating models to form. https://t.co/0to4HC26cu

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

Those are not experts

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@immad The highest value investors I’ve met approach things with more curiosity, and less damnification. Good for him to recognize they were the wrong people to listen to

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@POWERAVE @nic_carter Love it. Good luck! World def needs more people in hardware

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@POWERAVE @nic_carter I’m not no haha. What’re you building?

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

@1752vc 🫡

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

Track it here: https://t.co/unkjloEiwi

Note: this is not investment advice. This is a highly concentrated portfolio. If you decide to invest in these companies, you’re doing so at your own risk.

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

Most companies don’t compound across decades. A small number do, and what they share is identifiable. I built a model that forecasts this. Now I’m testing it in public markets, with real positions tracked daily. 🧵

[Michael Kelly @ResoluteMichael]

If the model fails I’ll publish that too. The point is to find out, not to be right.