ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲

Returning the GOP to the party of Optimism, Opportunity, and Open Tent. Any sane Republican 2028.
Husband, Father, NYer by birth, Texan by choice.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

Economic freedom is the first and foremost of all freedoms. If you don't own what you create, and you cannot use that as you choose to purchase what you want, then you are a slave that can vote. Democracy is irrelevant in socialism.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@GoldenSand_ This is a hard year for any Republican and in a state with a democratic lean it's even harder

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

It's unlikely but a Rogers win would bring me some real joy on election Day.

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Senate poll - Michigan

🔵 Abdul El-Sayed 47%
🔴 Mike Rogers 46%

InsiderAdvantage (A) - LV - 10/22

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@texasrunnerDFW That's what almost everyone I know did.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@SubduedRadical I'm a high information voter but we live in a country where 50% of the people don't know our neighbor to the South. There's plenty of people who have opinions on Paxton but there are not as many who care about RRC.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

No real change from their poll one months ago - Talarico 49-44. If accurate, it confirms that Paxton $200m ad blitz moved the needle by only a small percentage. Because he can try to drive up Talarico negatives, but can't eliminate his own.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

TPOR poll | 10/15-10/18 LV

US Senate Texas 2026

🟦James Talarico 51%
🟥Ken Paxton 47%

Link to poll: https://t.co/F58W7B3GmK

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@ReaganConserv83 That's only a problem if you think big pharma is bad which I do not. Profit motive cures diseases. Innovation is expensive and risky and deserves to be rewarded if successful.

[Justin Stapley @JustinWStapley]

Always?

[Alyssa Farah Griffin @Alyssafarah]

Candidates matter. This race would not be nearly as tight if Jasmine Crockett had been the Dem nominee.

Same could be said for if republicans nominated John Cornyn!

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@Jonathanvi64888 I think Talarico wins by about two points but turn-out, as always, is everything.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@ReaganConserv83 I look at his record as a legislator rather than his rhetoric in today's crazy environment. He is a reasonable candidate and is opposed by one of the worst ones in the cycle

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@Jonathanvi64888 Why do I believe what? That Rogers is likely to lose? Mostly because of the environment and the partisan lean of Michigan

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@CGshamer Assuming that all Rs vote Paxton (they absolutely won't), you still have to overcome losing Indies by 30.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

This is actually some objective data. Up to the individual how to interpret it but if Democrats have a lead in their primary voters voting in the general (so far), and non-primary voters are independents who break for Talarico heavily, then Paxton has some ground to make up.

[Michael Openshaw @mopenshaw]

The Democrats currently have a 40K lead in identifiable primary voter turnout in early votes. I don't think they ever led in this category since the 1980s.
Does NOT mean they have it in the bag; they have a teep hill to climb. But they put in the work and the money to be highly competitive even in Texas.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@bigbluedave1 If they couldn't make money, then they will never take the massive time and money (not to mention risk) involved in bringing new medicine to market.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

No real change from their poll one months ago - Talarico 49-44. If accurate, it confirms that Paxton $200m ad blitz moved the needle by only a small percentage. Because he can try to drive up Talarico negatives, but can't eliminate his own.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@bigbluedave1 Big pharma saves lives. But the real joy is in stopping a socialist radical Muslim.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@RLangford18 Why would a conservative want AES? I'm confused.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@EW14879353 *lean

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@EW14879353 I hope you're right but Michigan already has a Democrat lien and this is going to be a Blue Wave year so I think under most circumstances AES loses but he has a lot of wind at his back

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@PostTenebras2 2020 can't be included in any analysis given the covid restrictions and loose ballot rules.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@SchieleMatt Only if you assume that Paxton is getting all Republicans, which we know he is not, and that Independents split down the middle which is very unlikely. I think Paxton requires a really large r+

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@SubduedRadical I actually do have an answer on that one. It's purely based on partisan lean and the fact that 90% of the electorate has no idea who Bo French is or why they would vote against him.

[ClassicConservative 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 @ReturnToReagan]

@howard_hic24151 I'm not sure what you're missing. Palerica was up 6 in the last poll and now he's only up five but he is also now above 50% so how am I wrong?