Jamie McGeever

Markets Columnist @Reuters

[Catherine Rampell @crampell]

My job is to analyze policy. I can't even find a complete sentence in this

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

U.S. non-farm payrolls revised -818k in year to March

[Edward Luce @EdwardGLuce]

Can't say this enough; Elon Musk's menace to democracy is intolerable. He's using the largest & most influential platform in the democratic world to stoke racial conflict and civil breakdown - in his own posts & what X promotes. Democracies can no longer ignore this.

[Shayan Sardarizadeh @Shayan86]

Elon Musk shared a completely fake Daily Telegraph headline posted by Britain First's co-leader about "detainment camps on the Falkland Islands" for UK rioters to his 193 million followers and then deleted it without any explanation.

[Josh Self @Josh_Self_]

Just Elon Musk quote tweeting the co-leader of far-right party, Britain First, who is sharing a fake Telegraph headline

Seen by almost 1 million people in 15 minutes

Utterly dystopian

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Japan leads the Asia-wide stock market recovery charge from Monday's selloff

Monday - Nikkei 225 index -12.4%, second largest fall on record

Early Tuesday - Nikkei 225 index +10 .3%, on track for third largest rise on record.

A sign that Monday's volatility was way overdone?

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

"Up the escalator, down the elevator shaft" - not dollar/yen, but US interest rates. Fed hiking cycles are often gradual - "measured pace", anyone? - but not easing cycles. This time is no different.
COLUMN-Gradual Fed rate cut hopes were always misplaced
https://t.co/YXPXC2QPXR

[Eric Wallerstein @ericwallerstein]

woah, maybe the US economy is not crashing?

ISM services employment up 5 points to 51.1. Entire PMI in expansion

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

VIX volatility index - Wall Street's 'fear index' - surges above 65, its highest ever except for global financial crisis in 2008 and pandemic in 2020.

Higher than peaks of Asian crisis, LTCM, dotcom crash, 9/11, taper tantrum, US debt downgrade, Volmaggedon.

Panic or justified?

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Japan's Nikkei has fallen 20% in three weeks, the Topix has fallen 15% in three days.

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Japanese stocks tumbling. The broad Topix index is down 7% and on track for a two-day fall of 13%.

That would be the fourth biggest two-day fall in almost 50 years, topped only by:

Oct 1987 (Black Monday)
Oct 2008 (Great Financial Crisis)
March 2011 (Fukishima disaster)

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Carry trades getting clobbered - Japanese stocks, dollar/yen, Nasdaq futures and crypto all posting heavy losses as Friday's 'risk off' momentum spills into early Asian hours Monday.

Topix -7%
USD/JPY below 145.00
Nasdaq futures -2.5%
Ethereum -15%

[Adam Bienkov @AdamBienkov]

A reminder that Rishi Sunak proudly rolled out the red carpet for this guy just last year.

[Peter Jukes @peterjukes]

And what the hell is the owner of this site - who has bigged up Tommy Robinson and Paul Golding - doing tell us that “civil war is inevitable” in Britain?

Elon Musk and the role of X should be a major part of any investigation into the violence of the last few days

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

CFTC data shows that as of Tuesday, asset manager long & hedge fund short US Treasury futures positions rose to new records worth $1.12 trln and $1.08 trln.

Yield collapse since Thursday - 45 bps in 2y, 30 bps in 10y - will be hurting some of these highly leveraged funds.

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Remember the basis trade? Record asset manager, hedge fund US Treasury futures positions of >$1 trillion not a problem if vol is low, rate changes are gradual. They may be vulnerable...
COLUMN-US Treasury futures in unchartered waters as Fed cuts loom
https://t.co/vIqokJm0VN

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Remember the basis trade? Record asset manager, hedge fund US Treasury futures positions of >$1 trillion not a problem if vol is low, rate changes are gradual. They may be vulnerable...
COLUMN-US Treasury futures in unchartered waters as Fed cuts loom
https://t.co/vIqokJm0VN

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Markets now pricing in an 85% probability that the Fed cuts rates by *50 bps* in September

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Bad U.S. jobs numbers - affirms economic slowdown, will fuel recession talk and need for bolder rate cuts.

Unemployment rate up to 4.3%, higher than expected

Payrolls +114k in July, less than expected

June payrolls revised down

Wage growth slows more than expected

[Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1]

FLASHBACK: Nikki Haley in January:

"The first party to retire its 80 year old candidate is going to be the one who wins this election."