Richard Grieveson

Deputy Director @wiiw_ac_at. Member of @BIEPAG. Usual caveats.

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

Full report for members here. Executive summary and selected sections free to download: https://t.co/5cbQ6VjbNF

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

Today we release our new @wiiw_ac_at forecasts for 23 countries in Central and Eastern Europe (#CEE). The region's growth model is in transition, and the Middle East war/inflation shock will accelerate this. A summary of the findings:

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

Summary:
- CEE convergence story is intact. Region again showing its resilience, with divergence.
- Inflation is back, and accelerates existing structural transformation.
- Growth model is changing due to demographics, German stagnation and geopolitics.

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

Defence spending in #CEE has overtaken FDI inflows as a share of GDP for the first time since the early 1990s. The growth model is changing.

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

Orbán's defeat was not only about economics, but the dire performance of the Hungarian economy over the last few years clearly played a big role. The extent to which #Hungary missed out on CEE's investment surge of the last few years is striking. @wiiw_ac_at

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

#Hungary was a regional growth front-runner, but has in recent years fallen behind many regional peers. 'Orbánomics' bears much of the blame. New @wiiw_ac_at policy note by @MarioHolzner ahead of the election: https://t.co/fgdodwc8Qc

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

After half a decade as one of the slowest growing economies in CEE, an opposition win in #Hungary's upcoming election could significantly improve EU relations and boost growth. More here (free to read): https://t.co/pjXrpuA3Gp

[Carnegie Europe @Carnegie_Europe]

EU enlargement has stalled, with challenges arising both in candidate countries & in the union.

Brussels should revive the process by promoting gradual integration as a structured path to full membership, write @StefanLehne, @ZoranNechev, & @RicGri.

https://t.co/6410Vz2a1e

[wiiw @wiiw_ac_at]

Donald #Trump ist für Osteuropa weder Grund zur Panik noch für Selbstgefälligkeit, meint @RicGri in seinem #Gastkommentar für @derStandardat.
https://t.co/ISM3X9ChMF

[wiiw @wiiw_ac_at]

Out now: Our new Winter Forecast for Eastern Europe. The region is set to grow faster in 2025 despite #Trump. Private consumption driving growth, export-oriented industry struggling; 🇺🇦’s economic prospects uncertain; growth in 🇷🇺 will halve to 1.8%. ⬇️
https://t.co/M4jCK03Q5D

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

New policy note with my colleague Meryem Gökten on Turkey's ever-fascinating geoeconomic options and strategy. There is an opportunity here for the EU if it wants to take it: https://t.co/oAP2nGdHVs

[Richard Grieveson @RicGri]

A few thoughts on what Trump 2.0 will mean for CESEE, based on discussions in the region since the US election. Trade + investment could suffer and inflation could be higher, but CESEE's resilience to external shocks should never be underestimated: https://t.co/DovjAIRsdu