Richard Elliott

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@Pretend_Ad_4709 @mrjgossipgirl @DebRoberts3 @LilyBartx @NeilRos55889793 @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 Well argued. The insulin cases are the only ones where there is any physical evidence of a malevolent act, and even there the details do not convincingly add up.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@mrjgossipgirl @DebRoberts3 @LilyBartx @NeilRos55889793 @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 Same kind of test, on samples with similarly high insulin levels, so similar errors in the results. The hook effect is a systematic error, not a random variation.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@mrjgossipgirl @gill1109 @Pretend_Ad_4709 @DebRoberts3 @jane32621 @gill11099 You are repeating yourself.
My previous reply was:
"Again, no contradiction. The hospital data are real data that can be objectively analysed, unlike the highly subjective opinions of 'experts' commissioned to support a prosecution."

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@mrjgossipgirl @DebRoberts3 @LilyBartx @NeilRos55889793 @Pretend_Ad_4709 @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 The bottom line is that nobody really knows for sure. Changing the bag (and giving set) when a long line is replaced is just such a routine part of normal practice that nobody would take much notice, but it remains likely that it would have happened.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@Pretend_Ad_4709 @DebRoberts3 @berryincisor @Truth07036156 @mrjgossipgirl @LilyBartx @Overlordmainst1 @samueljwinter @Conspiracy_Jack @jane32621 @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 Yes, that is partly my point. The appeal will not be considering new evidence, but can consider whether the original evidence was presented in a fair and unbiased manner.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@DebRoberts3 @Pretend_Ad_4709 @berryincisor @Truth07036156 @mrjgossipgirl @LilyBartx @Overlordmainst1 @samueljwinter @Conspiracy_Jack @jane32621 @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 Interesting indeed, and if Lucy's initial appeal succeeds it is likely to be on the basis of some point raised in those legal discussions than on any of the witness testimony.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@LilyBartx @NeilRos55889793 @DebRoberts3 @Pretend_Ad_4709 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 The bags would normally be made up in batches (bespoke for each baby) by the pharmacy and stored in the unit fridge. So there would be no need to reorder immediately.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@NeilRos55889793 @LilyBartx @DebRoberts3 @Pretend_Ad_4709 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 I think many people are getting confused between changing the bag and changing the giving set. There definitely was a second bag but there were conflicting accounts of whether the giving set was changed at the same time.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@Pretend_Ad_4709 @DebRoberts3 @mrjgossipgirl @jane32621 @gill11099 @gill1109 2. I can't speak directly for the legal people but I think they, too, are thinking in terms of underlying principles of the justice system.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@Pretend_Ad_4709 @DebRoberts3 @mrjgossipgirl @jane32621 @gill11099 @gill1109 I think it is probably true that most statisticians are more interested in the general principle of the safety of making accusations based on a common misunderstanding of probability rather than any specific case.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@Pretend_Ad_4709 @DebRoberts3 @LilyBartx @NeilRos55889793 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 In fact he was very critical of the insulin evidence in both his cross-examination and his summing up.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@LilyBartx @DebRoberts3 @NeilRos55889793 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 Her analysis of the scientific principle underlying the interpretation of the test results is entirely correct because it has been well documented in reputable scientific studies.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@LilyBartx @DebRoberts3 @NeilRos55889793 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 Because it has been studied and is well documented. It is so well known that most of the test manufacturers draw attention to it in their own datasheets. Why it wasn't mentioned in court is baffling.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@LilyBartx @DebRoberts3 @NeilRos55889793 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 Presumably it wasn't raised because he wasn't aware of the underlying science. This is one of the areas where @EdgarMoose43433's analysis is entirely correct. The fact that she has been criticised on other matters is entirely irrelevant.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@DebRoberts3 @LilyBartx @NeilRos55889793 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 But we know that the routine, hospital, C-peptide test is subject to errors even when conducted in the correct manner. If it had been repeated on a diluted sample, as recommended, I would be more inclined to accept it.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@LilyBartx @NeilRos55889793 @DebRoberts3 @mrjgossipgirl @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 It only has to be one of those reasons *if* the C-peptide test result is accurate. If there is doubt about the test result all bets are off.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@DebRoberts3 @LilyBartx @mrjgossipgirl @NeilRos55889793 @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 And so we come full circle. It always comes back to her presence at multiple events, regardless of the lack of objective evidence for her directly contributing to any single one of them.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@LilyBartx @mrjgossipgirl @DebRoberts3 @NeilRos55889793 @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 Not quite true. She did do a few things, like her unprofessional behaviour in taking home notes, that didn't exactly help to exonerate her. But nothing she did actually links her directly to any of the deaths or collapses.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@mrjgossipgirl @LilyBartx @DebRoberts3 @NeilRos55889793 @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 Many people probably didn't set out to deliberately 'stitch her up', but as the narrative was built up more and more people fell into believing it. That is why it is important to get the early parts of the investigation right.

[Richard Elliott @RichardEll55153]

@LilyBartx @DebRoberts3 @NeilRos55889793 @Overlordmainst1 @jane32621 @samueljwinter @gill1109 @gill11099 @DaveWell4 @mrjgossipgirl @RonWinter6 @DoddsMaz @GCarr1953 @EdgarMoose43433 We believe it because, unfortunately, it has happened many times before. You have to admit that there have been numerous high-profile miscarriages of justice, even if you probably wouldn't accept the statistics on how common they are.