Is this another dot-com bubble?
This chart shows how much money sits inside the stock market relative to all the money that exists. The Stock market is 3x bigger than all the money available in the economy.
It’s hovering near its own 2000 era peak, no wonder traditional investors are sounding the alarm about the next bubble.
So the question writes itself: are we here again?
This ratio has 2 numbers:
- Top: market cap
- Bottom: M2 (money supply)
Only watching the top misses the other half.
In 2000, the bottom was growing. M2 expanded and the ratio still tripled. That tells you the move came almost entirely from price. Money inside the market relative to money that existed had run genuinely too hot.
This time, the bottom did something different. M2 peaked in April 2022, then contracted and did not regain its high until March 2025. For three years the denominator shrank while price climbed. Part of the parabola you are looking at is arithmetic.
Every system has limits to growth. The strongest driver, the reinforcing loop, is often the same force that ends the run.
AI capex feeds earnings expectations, which feed market cap, which feed more capex. The loop spins. If the driver does not limit itself, a balancing loop arrives uninvited: less money supply, tighter liquidity. The system gets forced back to balance.
So is this dot com again?
I do not think so, yet. We happened to find a new investable technology AI which the internet itself gave birth to. Record revenue earned across the whole world. The names carrying the index actually have cash flow. M2 now reaccelerating to fresh records above 22 trillion. So from here the ratio can only keep rising.
Predicting when this ends will give you sleepless nights. Nobody times the top of a reinforcing loop. You do not need the date. You need the flows.
Understand the flows feeding the stock and watch them carefully, and you are already thinking like the top 10%.
Act on what they tell you, and you become the top 1% of market operators.
The chart tells us how far price reached last time.
The inflows tell us when the move is running out of juice.
What's Ahead for the US Dollar in H2?
As liquidity drains and fundamentals align, the US Dollar is on the move and it's taking everything with it!
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