I'm proud that Kalshi already blocks members of Congress and enforces against insider trading under existing laws. It's encouraging to see universal recognition and reinforcement of this important principle.
Arizona’s decision to weaponize state criminal law against companies that comply with federal law sets a dangerous precedent. I welcome the Court’s order today that sends a clear message: these cases raise important issues that must be resolved before states seek to enforce state laws against @CFTC registrants.
Any state that attempts to circumvent federal law will be met in court.
Read more ⬇️
https://t.co/LShFZ7nLa9
The Third Circuit ruled in Kalshi’s favor.
People use prediction markets because they’re more fair, transparent, and reward being right.
Free markets work. We should keep them that way.
This is a big win for the industry and millions of users.
The $1 Billion Kalshi Perfect Bracket Challenge
$1 Billion for a perfect bracket
$1 Million guaranteed to the top scoring bracket
$1 Million to charity and scholarships
See the full rules and submit your bracket: https://t.co/oIRws6H3Jn
No purchase or deposit required. SIG Parametrics, LLC, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies, is financially backing this promotion.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the company, an online prediction market, is committed to following the rule of law.
He speaks to Bloomberg's Tim Stenovec at the FIA Global Cleared Markets conference in Boca Raton, Florida https://t.co/C5zqPVxnNN
@mansourtarek_ The lawyers at Kalshi are some of the sharpest and most driven attorneys I've ever had the pleasure of working with. Bobby is no exception. Our enforcement operations are in excellent hands.
On Insider Trading.
Some say insider information can make prediction markets more accurate. But the same argument can be made for stock markets, where insider trading is banned.
Insider trading erodes trust. When people believe a market is unfair, they stop trading. Liquidity dries up, volume collapses, and the market dies. Also, allowing it could incentivize bad actors to leak information they shouldn’t.
So Kalshi bans insider trading.
How do we police it?
Just like stock markets. We spent years building a market surveillance system similar to those used by the NYSE and Nasdaq:
1. Detect: Our surveillance system (called Poirot, after the French detective) flags suspicious patterns in real-time by running trades through pattern recognition models. Insider trades stand out because they often are weird and are bigger in size: people don’t usually commit fraud for $25.
2. Investigate: We have a market regulation team that conducts investigations. They review KYC data, funding sources, prior trading history, and trade rationale. They contact traders when needed.
3. Enforce: If we find wrongdoing, penalties range from warnings and fines, to referrals to the CFTC (and sometimes DOJ) for civil/criminal prosecution.
Transparency helps.
All activity on Kalshi is public. We also report it to the CFTC daily. Because of that, our traders help by sending us whistleblower tips. To those traders, I know some of you are frustrated that we don't tell you what happens after you send a tip. I get the frustration. Legally, we need to keep our investigations private – but please know your help is super valuable.
In the past year, we ran over 200 investigations and froze relevant accounts. Of these, over a dozen have become active cases and several have been referred to law enforcement.
Today we go further:
1. Wharton Forensics Lab: We’re bringing Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab Director Daniel Taylor, one of the premier forensics experts in the country, to advise us. He will help us investigate intricate "cousin of the spouse of the dude at Tesla" insider cases.
2. Brian Nelson: We’re adding Brian, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, to counsel us on financial compliance and market integrity.
3. Surveillance Audit Committee: We’re forming an independent committee of market integrity experts like Lisa Pinheiro to provide quarterly reports to Brian and publish relevant statistics.
4. System upgrades: We're partnering with Solidus Labs. Their institutional-grade behavior monitoring and pattern recognition tools will be added to our systems.
5. Robert DeNault as Head of Enforcement: Bobby is a force of nature and a self-professed financial crime nerd. He was a white-collar criminal attorney and spent law school studying presidential investigations and the Panama Papers. He’s also a great guy - we love Bobby.
All industries have bad actors and no system is perfect, Kalshi's included. But we are committed to improving daily. Lots of work ahead!
We are hosting our first Prediction Market Conference in March 2026.
Researchers, economists, policymakers, traders will discuss big questions around prediction markets and knowledge aggregation.
Spots will be limited. Reply here with a topic if interested in joining.
@RLinnehanSR If only there were an existing regulatory regime with impartial access requirements, to prevent predatory operators from unfairly limiting their smartest customers.
Wait a second.
Today we launched the Coalition for Prediction Markets @PredictAction alongside Cryptocom, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog.
Millions of Americans have become active users of prediction markets, whether they trade or learn from the forecasts. These markets have emerged as the most powerful way to harness the wisdom of crowds and routinely outperform traditional polls. Economists, news networks (CNN, CNBC), journalists, policymakers, and passive readers now rely on them for high quality signal amongst the overwhelming noise of public discourse.
We created the Coalition with a simple mission: provide a voice for prediction markets against adverse legacy lobbying groups. The Coalition will also protect the transparency, market integrity, and customer protection standards that underpin the industry. We expect more industry players to join over the next few months.
Why now? With over 150B of annualized volume, prediction markets have quickly become one of the most important consumer internet applications. In recent months, lobby groups have attacked prediction markets and spread mis-information about how they work and how they’re regulated.
Just like how the bank lobby attacked crypto claiming it's “not safe”: the attacks on prediction markets aren’t about protecting consumers, they're about protecting monopolies and the profits they fear losing.
The Coalition will work with policymakers to educate the public about how prediction markets work and how they differ from casinos and sportsbooks. With prediction markets, there is no “house” and no penalty for winning. People trade in a transparent and competitive environment against each other, just like the stock market.
Prediction markets deserve the same rigor as any modern financial market – clear rules and federal oversight. The best way to protect consumers is to keep these markets federally regulated, with consistent guardrails.
Onwards.