Rickert Analytics

Sports Analytics w/ Data-Driven Evaluations

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

I built a data-driven model to identify potential 2026 MLB breakout hitters.

Out of 303 players screened, only 9 qualified.

Five were selected as my final breakout picks.

Here's how the "Four-Bucket Model" works, and my five picks! 🧵⬇️

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

Here’s a sneak preview: Perdomo’s 2025 can be attributed to eliminating his biggest weakness as a hitter!

Learn more in the thread below, or check out the extended breakdown on my Substack:

https://t.co/iXyNdU50Jq

#MLB #Statcast #Diamondbacks #Dbacks

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

PLAYER CASE STUDY: Geraldo Perdomo
Geraldo Perdomo burst onto the scene in 2025 with a top 5 season in the MLB by fWAR.

How?
Is it sustainable?
I did a deep dive into his pitch splits, batted ball data and underlying numbers.

Here’s what I saw and why I think it's legit!🧵⬇️

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

@IISwitch2II This is a game changer!

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

Final Verdict
There may likely be slight regression, considering just how amazing Perdomo was in 2025. For example, last season:

Overall SLG: .462
xSLG: .424
Breaking Ball SLG: .443
Breaking Ball xSLG: .406

He only hit 2 HRs on breaking balls but still slugged .443, so it is easy to see some regression to the mean and a season closer to that xSLG number.

But the skill shift is real.
He no longer has an exploitable weakness at the plate.
Good luck getting Perdomo out consistently.
He is safely here to stay as a top SS in the game!

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

PLAYER CASE STUDY: Geraldo Perdomo
Geraldo Perdomo burst onto the scene in 2025 with a top 5 season in the MLB by fWAR.

How?
Is it sustainable?
I did a deep dive into his pitch splits, batted ball data and underlying numbers.

Here’s what I saw and why I think it's legit!🧵⬇️

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

Breakdown
Perdomo isn’t a high percentile EV, Barrel %, or Hard Hit % guy. In fact, he's well below league average in those areas. But it doesn't matter.

He’s a:
• Top-end bat-to-ball hitter (98 Percentile Whiff %)
• Elite swing decision maker (96 Percentile Chase %)
• High OBP profile (94 BBs to 83 Ks)
For that archetype, having a clear pitch-type weakness is dangerous, since consistent at-bats is what provides strong value not high-end power.

In 2024, pitchers could attack him with spin easily.
In 2025? That blueprint disappeared.

Now he:
• Handles breaking balls very well
• Gets the ball in the air more
• Pulls more damage contact

That combination makes him capable of hitting for SLG and a brutal at-bat for opposing pitchers.

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

@Kid_Cojo Might be hard to believe, but I really think 2026 will be his best season yet!

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

I built a data-driven model to identify potential 2026 MLB breakout hitters.

Out of 303 players screened, only 9 qualified.

Five were selected as my final breakout picks.

Here's how the "Four-Bucket Model" works, and my five picks! 🧵⬇️

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

@DillyHIM Big 2026 season in store!

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

Breakout Pick 5⃣: Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick already had a breakout season in 2025, so I thought about excluding him from my final list. But the more I thought about it, the more I believed he can reach an even greater level of play in 2026. Maybe that’s being unrealistic, but I am a Sal Frelick believer. The second straight Brewer on this list, Frelick enjoyed an amazing 2025 campaign where he produced 3.6 fWAR in Milwaukee, with a .756 OPS and 12 HRs after having only 5 HRs combined in the previous two years.

How did this happen? Frelick paired his already-elite swing decisions with a newfound ability to lift the ball to his pull side frequently (14% in 2024 to 17.8% in 2025) leading to a season with 35 extra-base hits. Frelick had just a .335 slugging percentage in first full MLB season in 2024, and his 35 extra-base hits powered him to a .405 mark in 2025.

This is a former first round pick with elite bat-to ball ability, and he’s just begun to grow his power potential. I have no reason to believe this will plateau in 2026, and I expect a great baseball player like Frelick to build off it and grow even stronger as a hitter. And if that’s the case, we could see a 25+ double, 15+ home run season for Sal Frelick as he grows into more and more of a household name.

[Rickert Analytics @RickertAnalytic]

Breakout Pick 4⃣: Andrew Vaughn
Vaughan always boasted strong exit velocity numbers and Hard-Hit Percentages, but one thing always held him back: swing decisions. Things reached a new low in 2025, where Vaughan had just a .531 OPS in his first 48 games with the White Sox… and then he was traded to Milwaukee. Vaughan had one of the sharpest 180s you can have as a player, starring down the stretch for the Brewers with an .869 OPS and 9 HRs in 64 games to close the regular season.

Could it have been luck? Just a flash in the plan, never to be repeated again? Sure, maybe. But I don’t buy it. Vaughan increased his swing decisions dramatically , specifically in his time with Milwaukee. He made one of the strongest chase rate reductions in the dataset and paired it with an increase in damage-zone swing share, meaning he’s swinging less at “pitchers’ pitches” and more at balls he can drive, all while maintaining the raw power potential he’s always had.

Is Vaughan a platoon bat? His 142 wRC+ vs lefties compared to his 81 wRC+ vs righties in 2025 says maybe he is. But I believe his newfound ability to lay off bad pitches can make him an everyday player, albeit one much stronger against left-handed pitching. I’m not saying he’s going to be 2025 post-trade deadline Andrew Vaughan from here on out, but there was tangible growth in what he always lacked, and I’m excited to see what he can do over a full-season sample.