I am a Paine

Just tweeting while the world burns.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@JustinWolfers Looking into the jobs reports shows massive loss of full time jobs while part time and low paying jobs are doing the heavy lifting.

I sing think we are out of the woods yet.

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Breaking News!
Code UFB!!!

Sea-surface temperature records are being shattered daily, and yet this El Nino is just getting started ...

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@VictorishB123 @JustinWolfers I understand, but there are too many independent economists with academic ties involved at so many stages that the whistle would be blown.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@reesetheone1 Perhaps. Real wages are still down and people s feel a recession

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

Another encouraging sign: The Black Unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in May.

That's the lowest in a year.

The Black unemployment rate is often seen as a leading indicator. The fact that it's improving is another good sign (and an indicator that more Americans are benefitting from job gains this year)

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

This is the clear pain point in the economy.

Wage growth in May was the lowest in 5 years
May wage gains: 3.4% (for past year)
May inflation: Likely to be ~4%

It's easier to get a job now, but it's hard to find a job where your pay will keep up with current inflation.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Why I call the below the most important story in markets / geopolitics?

1) without China importing far less, oil would be way, way above $100

2) Fed would be forced to hike rates, crashing Wall Street

3) President Trump would be against the clock in negotiations with Iran

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: Another strong jobs report. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May (way better than the 88k expected) and the revisions for April and March were 93k higher. Hospitality was the top job gainer (+70k) followed by local gov’t (+55k)

Unemployment rate in May: 4.3% (same as April)

Job gains so far in 2026: 114,000 per month
Job gains in 2025: 10,000 per month

The bad news = wages grew 3.4% in past year. -->The lowest rate in 4 years and well below ~4% inflation.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Wowee!!!!

Payrolls grew a massive +172k in May, well above expectations.

April also revised up +64k to +179k, and March revised up +29k to +214k.

The labor market appears to be motoring along after a slow 2025.

Take that recession talk off the table.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🇺🇸🛢️US oil and petroleum product inventories just hit a 22 year low.

The last time stockpiles were this low, the iPhone didn't exist....

48 hours ago, ExxonMobil's SVP Neil Chapman told CNBC inventories were heading to "really, really low levels" and physical Brent would move to $150–160 in 2 to 3 weeks.

This chart is what Chapman was looking at when he said it.

Here's the question every trader should be asking: if combined crude and product inventories are at a 22-year low, why is Brent still trading at $96?

The answer is in my latest article, link in the below comments

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@neeratanden Leftists enthusiastically support a scumbag and many Dems jumped on board.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Inflation in Europe is rising rapidly:

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Input Prices spiked to 80 points in May, the highest since May 2022.

This also marks the largest monthly increase in costs for firms over the last 4 years.

Furthermore, PMI Output Prices surged to 62 points, the highest in 3.5 years.

The rate companies are increasing the prices they charge for goods they produce has surged +12 points, or +24%, since the start of 2026.

This surge has been primarily driven by rising energy and raw material costs.

Meanwhile, supply chain delays are up to the highest level since the pandemic supply squeeze of 2022, adding further pressure on prices.

As a result, factories are forced to pass higher costs on to customers, which will push inflation even higher over the next few months.

Price pressures across Europe are accelerating.

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@samueltombs Rising inflation and a weaker job market.

Ugh!!!

[Samuel Tombs @samueltombs]

🚨The best leading indicators of payrolls, by a comfortable margin, just collapsed.

The NFIB survey's hiring intentions index has dropped to its lowest since May 2020:

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@DannyDayan5 So much mix evidence. The economy feels both resilient and like the other shoe is about to drop.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

"As part of President Donald Trump's budget plan, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) will see its funding cut from around $125 million a year to about $25 million." -Newsweek

[I am a Paine @Rightsof_Man]

@StatisticUrban The worst part is the Left’s utter enthusiasm for him.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US inflation is set to rise further:

ISM Services Prices rose +0.6 points in May, to 71.3, the highest since August 2022.

Since February, the index has risen +8.3 points, the biggest 3-month increase since 2021.

Diesel, gasoline, oil, and related commodities were the most frequently cited as "up in price" in the survey.

In May alone, no commodities were reported as "down in price."

Historically, rapidly rising services prices have led CPI inflation with a ~3-month lag.

The current reading suggests CPI could rise above 5.0% for the first time since early 2023, from the 3.8% seen in April.

Inflation pressures are mounting.

[Dr Richard Hirschson @richardhirschs1]

Global and local trade/transportation depends on ships and trucks which use diesel.

Diesel for December 2027 delivery is going vertical, as are trucking spot rates.👇

Ship bunker fuel hits tank bottoms in coming months.

Everything is about to cost a lot more.

https://t.co/5bIoEkV4r6