Rikuldo

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

- Macro BTC considerations -

I believe it’s important at this point in the cycle to share my overall view on Bitcoin to offer a rational, data-driven perspective rather than one based on “hope.”

When taking a broader look at the market, we need to examine the weekly chart.

As we can clearly see, we’ve had a two-year uptrend during which a high-risk asset like Bitcoin has delivered a +700% performance from its lows.

It’s natural, logical, and highly rational to think that, at this stage of the market, this long-term movement will eventually come to an end and that someone will need to provide exit liquidity before the market begins to collapse.

If it still needs to be repeated: this is definitely not the time to buy BTC for the long term, nor is it the time to be overexposed with long positions.

A few concrete examples, beyond the “mere” analysis in terms of overperformance, can be found in the nature of the HTF price movements.

1⃣) The long March-November range was clearly an accumulative one and this can be visible not only by the strong BO but also from the type of volumes coming in at spring phase (buyers stepping in to absorb)

2⃣) The distribution we saw in December 2024 was a first move in order to re-accumulate through a 3 drive front-running the key demand/breaker at 72K.
This is an important sign because in a clean healthy environment, you don't want to frontrun those areas as orders to push to the upside are not being collected.
The sell-off from 112K to 98K is a first distributive sign.

3⃣) Now observe the correlation between the last highs, the volumes and the nature of the bearish moves.
Each push to the upside has been immediately utilized as a reason to unload positions from smart money and this is proven by the aggressiveness paired with increasing tick volumes.
Even weekly FP points it out.
The highlighted candle in the FP shows a large increase in traded volume (5.32B)paired with a negative delta (-49M).
That means a massive amount of transactions took place, but selling pressure dominated: sellers were hitting the bid aggressively despite the surge in activity.
In short: high activity + negative delta = aggressive selling into demand, a sign of potential exit liquidity being provided by retail buyers while smart money sell.

Now there's one thing that must be taken into consideration and I believe is important in this context: the HTF MS.

In the chart above I pointed out a clean downside SFP so buyers have been able to save the weekly closure and with it, the HTF MS, so we don't have a confirmed BOS that may suggest us a full reversal.

We have signs but we don't have confirmations yet.

What does it mean?

That technically speaking we may even see another push higher, even a new high (116K is they key high to reclaim in this case) but if so, that will likely be the final push before, in my opinion, the meltdown.

In this scenario there's also another and last thing to add that is meandering my mind: the last liquidation event.

As we know, 19B have been liquidated and during that moment, exchanges didn't work giving no possibility to retails to buy the very bottom of the move..only smart money did and before the weekly closure.

Why?

1⃣) They're gonna use it as final exit TP after the last rebound sending everything down over the coming weeks

2⃣) They're gonna use it as fuel to ignite the last move higher before the biblical collapse

Personally, profits are secured with what made during the cycle till now but I still have some exposure + leverage trades in case they're gonna "send it" for the grand finale.

Either ways, exciting and crucial times ahead.

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

Time for a crucial update on this metric, since plenty of you asked me about it.

"Brother what do you think? Is it over?"

Let me clarify my thoughts.

In the previous update we were seeing it reaching the key area near the 4.40% zone, my primary HTF target for reloading more on spot and start eyeing some longs.

From that moment we saw another rise melting the level but if you read the update I was mentioning: "As long as the 4.49% high isn't reclaimed on HTF, I can't be bearish."

This didn't happen as we formed consecutive daily SFPs above every new high formed (and if you want to know more about this I leave you with a post that I made recently) ->
https://t.co/bSrs5nsGqw

However, the most important aspect in this context is that we took 1 of the 2 "last key areas" for a reversal: the 4.61% one (apologize if I didn't mention it in the previous update, I marked it on my charts later) and this has occurred with another SFP, something that matters a lot...but why?

Well, the big conjunction here could be found in the opposite side of the market where most charts (T2/OTHERS/OTHERS D.) have taken their major levels alongside plenty of HTF breakers on individual altcoins.

I also already shared my view on OTHERS D (accumulation in my opinion) and to validate this scenario a strong breakdown of the USDT D is required.

Also, something to note aside is that, "retailistically" speaking, we have a potential HTF rising wedge in the making, with the metric converging into the crucial area, also forming a potential DT.

Considering the decline of BTC from the highs (average of -13%) this is the moment where to expect a reversal, in my opinion.

Could we still see another pump toward 4.64%?

Yes, everything is possible (and this would likely match the 106.700 key area on BTC -> FRVP high volume + liquidation level + MTF breaker) but what we don't want to is seeing a closure above 4.60% as it would compromise the whole structure on majors regaining almost a 2M range.

For me, that would likely mean the ultimate signal that the absolute top on BTC is likely in, therefore de-risking everything from spot and start looking for HTF shorts.

However, this is not a scenario that I'm tracking and I'm leaning toward another swing to the upside until proven otherwise.

To the downside we have a 4.37% fresh demand that I'm eyeing as partial TP and based on the reaction I will adjust, considering that it could be flipped and utilized as a breaker for going lower (tbe).

Let's see what we got and if we can complete our plan at 100%.

[Rikuldo @Rikuldo]

@IamZeroIka Thank you for everything! I can’t believe how much my mindset has changed because of you, not to mention all the valuable things I’ve learned. I’m so glad i joined the Dojo! 🥷

[Rikuldo @Rikuldo]

@Moneytaur_ I may be quiet, but I am constantly learning.

-human 😁