Rising Capital

Backing Crypto Founders, building & hustling together.

We help Crypto & Web3 startups by providing access to Capital, Talent and Services.

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 CoreWeave Yields Hit 15% (-10% Equity) → French OAT-Bund Spread Blows Out to 170 bps → BTC Softens with Equities

• AI Credit Stress: CoreWeave bond yields reach ~15% YTD; equity drops -10% on Oct 22 as debt serviceability concerns spread across neocloud infra. Tesla trims forward capex guidance, heightening AI ROI worries 💻
• Eurozone Sovereign Risk: French 10Y OAT yields cross 5.1%; OAT-Bund spread widens to ~170 bps, signaling fiscal strains in Europe alongside a flight-to-quality bid into long US Treasuries 🏛️
• Energy at 5-Month Highs: Geopolitical friction and potential military action involving Iran push Brent & WTI to 5-month highs, reigniting cost-push inflation fears 🛢️
• Fed Repricing: October Fed rate hike odds drop to near zero on credit stress, but conviction for a December cut declines sharply amid surging energy prices 📊
• Crypto Tone: BTC tracks equity market weakness lower, acting as a liquid risk asset rather than establishing independent price discovery 📉
💵 Focus: MSFT & GOOGL Earnings (Next 2 Weeks) | Nov 3 Midterms | Iran Oil Risks.
→ Strategy: Holding unleveraged spot BTC, trimming high-debt AI beta, maintaining put option hedges.

What happened:
• AI infrastructure debt faced severe repricing as CoreWeave yields spiked to 15% and Tesla cut capex.
• French sovereign spreads hit 170 bps, driving a broad flight-to-safety into long-dated Treasuries.
• Bitcoin tracked equities lower as institutional desks treated crypto as a risk-off liquidity source.

Now key:
Microsoft & Alphabet Earnings. Hyperscaler capex disclosures over the next two weeks will determine if tech credit spreads stabilize.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Crypto majors remain rangebound and vulnerable to equity risk-off spillovers.
• Long term: Market shifts from rewarding narrative-driven compute buildouts to demanding positive cash flows.

CoreWeave yields hit 15%, French debt spreads blew out to 170 bps, and oil touched 5-month highs.
Holding core spot, managing credit risk, and keeping downside put hedges active.
Credit stress is in the driver's seat.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 US Evacuates Saudi Diplomats (Crude +1%) → Kospi Drops -2% on AI Slowdown → $876M BTC Options Block Dominates Desks

• Geopolitics & Macro: US orders diplomats to evacuate Saudi Arabia; Brent/WTI crude jumps +1%. Gold slips slightly. South Korea's Kospi falls -2% as Bank of Korea flags AI slowdown & household debt risks 🛢️🏛️
• BTC Spot: Drops -1.7% in the past hour on aggressive spot selling, consolidating flat over 24h at $83,000. Institutional spot volume stays muted ahead of the Fed & US elections 📉
Desks log net buying in AI tokens vs selling in LIT 🤖
• Derivs Flow: Massive $876 Million BTC options block trade hits the tape via a large hedged-options strategy! 📊
• Election Skew: 90-day IV drops ~6 vols, but election-week forward vol sits >40v. Traders actively bid November 6 puts, keeping put premium elevated across the curve 🗳️

💵 Focus: Nov 3 Midterms & Nov 6 Options Expiry | Oct 28 FOMC.
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC at $83k, holding Nov 6 put hedges, fading reflexive altcoin spikes.

What happened:
• Middle East tensions flared as the US ordered diplomat evacuations from Saudi Arabia, lifting oil.
• An $876M institutional options block trade crossed the tape as 90-day volatility compressed.
• Election-week forward volatility remained bid above 40v, driving heavy demand for Nov 6 puts.

Now key:November 3 Midterms & November 6 Options Expiry. With forward vol above 40v, markets are fully pricing an election-driven volatility expansion.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Rangebound chop near $83,000 as hourly spot selling offsets quality altcoin bids.
• Long term: Prudent institutional hedging into political events preserves capital for Q4 expansion.

Oil is bidding, an $876M options block printed, and election vol is pinned above 40v.
Holding core spot, hedging with Nov 6 puts, and keeping leverage flat.
The hedges are set.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC01u6c
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 BTC Reclaims $83k Despite Kospi -4% Drop → Brent Clears $110 on Saudi Strikes → Spot ETFs Post Largest Inflow in ~1 Month

• BTC Spot: Reclaims $83,000 after absorbing overnight weakness as South Korea's Kospi dropped -4% on AI capex doubts. Resilient spot absorption 📈
• Macro & Oil: Brent crude surges above $110/bbl post-Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. Fed expected to hold next Wednesday, but a December hike stays priced in 🛢️
• Institutional ETF Flows: Spot BTC ETFs log their largest net inflow in nearly a month! BlackRock's IBIT outpaces group net (offsetting Fidelity/Grayscale redemptions). ETH sees 4th straight day of outflows 💸
• Derivs Flow: Majors IV stays pinned in $80k–$83k chop, but 30d 25d RR skews heavier to puts (ETH 3-4v put-favored). OTC sees spike in Anthropic & OpenAI pre-IPO hedging 💻

💵 Focus: This Week's Big Tech AI Earnings | Oil > $110 | Next Week's Oct 28 FOMC.
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC at $83k, riding AERO merger momentum, hedging Monad unlock, holding 30d put options.

What happened:
• Bitcoin shrugged off a steep tech sell-off in Asia and $110 oil to reclaim $83,000.
• Institutional ETF buyers returned in force, posting the best daily inflow numbers in four weeks.
• Traders aggressively hedged pre-IPO AI equity perps and bid up 30-day put options.

Now key: This Week's Q3 Tech & AI Corporate Earnings. Forward capex guidance will dictate whether macro credit and equities stabilize.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Range chop between $80k and $83k as options desks maintain downside put skew.
• Long term: Revenue-generative protocols continue capturing multi-chain market share.

BTC is back at $83k, ETFs saw their biggest buy in a month, and Brent crude broke $110.
Holding core spot, stacking AERO, hedging tech risk, and tracking AI earnings.
The bid is back.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 BTC Tests $81k 50-Day MA & $82k ETF Cost Basis → Spot ETFs Bleed -$548M → Tokenized Equities Flash Crash on Thin Liquidity

• BTC Spot: Rangebound between $81,000–$82,500; ETH holds $2,400. Market sits squarely on the $82k ETF cost basis and $81k 50-day MA support 📉
• Institutional Outflows: Weekly ETF net outflows hit -$228.4M (BTC) and -$320.1M (ETH). FalconX desk logs net hedge fund selling across both majors 💸
• Alts & Flash Crash: Tokenized equity markets suffer a brief flash crash before recovering, exposing thin weekend liquidity. PRL extends outperformance, while high-beta tokens (STRK, DRV, GRASS) & memecoins (PUMP, M) give back gains ⚡
• Derivs Flow: Front-end implied volatility compresses aggressively, but skew remains heavily tilted toward puts. Persistent demand for Oct/Nov downside protection + call overwriting 📊
• Macro: Asian equities drift lower on AI capex concerns ahead of Q3 earnings week. Energy balances Middle East friction vs potential Russian energy sanction waivers 🛢️

💵 Focus: Friday Flash PMIs | Big Tech Q3 Earnings | Next Week's Oct 28 FOMC Meeting.
→ Strategy: Holding spot at $81k support, buying Oct/Nov put hedges, overwriting $85k+ calls.

What happened:
• Digital majors drifted through the weekend, testing critical institutional ETF breakeven levels.
• Over $548M left spot ETFs as hedge funds reduced gross exposure ahead of tech earnings.
• Tokenized equity markets experienced localized liquidations on thin off-market orderbooks.

Now key: The $81,000 50-Day Moving Average.
A daily close below $81k risks triggering automated stops down toward $78,000.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Range compression as traders overwrite calls and hold October put protection.
• Long term: Tech earnings and AI capex disclosures will dictate cross-asset risk appetite.

BTC is sitting on its $82k ETF cost basis, ETFs bled -$548M, and put skew remains bid.
Holding core spot, hedging with Oct/Nov puts, and keeping leverage flat.
$81,000 is the line.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Hot CPI Triggers Flight to Treasuries → CoreWeave CDS Blows Out to 60% (-15.5%) → MSCI Index Rule Threatens Strategy

• Macro Regime Shift: Sept CPI beats (3.7% YoY / 2.6% Core YoY), but Treasury yields collapse in a flight-to-safety! 10Y (peaked at 5.35%) & 30Y (peaked at 5.73%) tumble as credit risks override inflation fears 🏛️
• AI Credit Contagion: Compute infra giant CoreWeave plummets -15.5% as its 5-year CDS spread spikes to 60% (severe default pricing). Nasdaq & Kospi fall as tech debt faces scrutiny 2 weeks ahead of Q3 earnings 💻
• Index Structural Shock: MSCI adopts a new "non-operating company" methodology. Puts Strategy (MSTR) at risk of index ejection, raising forced passive redemption overhangs 🧱
• Crypto Tone: Flight-to-quality dynamics take over; market shifts from pricing central bank rate friction to assessing tech credit contagion risks 📊
💵 Focus: CoreWeave CDS Contagion | MSCI Constituent Determinations | Q3 Tech Earnings in 2 Weeks.
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC over equity proxies, de-risking AI tech beta, maintaining downside put hedges.

What happened:
• Hot inflation was completely ignored as market participants rushed into Treasuries to escape credit risk.
• CoreWeave's 60% CDS spread exposed severe debt strains within capital-intensive AI infrastructure.
• MSCI's methodology shift introduced mechanical benchmark exclusion risks for corporate crypto treasuries.

Now key: CoreWeave Credit Stabilization & MSCI Determinations. Contagion in AI debt will test high-beta asset valuations ahead of earnings.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Tech credit quality has become the primary constraint on broad risk appetite.
• Long term: Preference for direct spot assets over debt-financed corporate equity vehicles.

CPI ran hot, Treasuries rallied on credit fear, CoreWeave CDS hit 60%, and MSCI rules threaten MSTR.
Holding direct spot BTC, cutting AI tech debt beta, and tracking benchmark rebalancings.
Credit risk is the new driver.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Sept CPI Beats (3.7% Headline / 2.6% Core) → Hormuz Collapses to 1 Crossing (SPR -30.5%) → Tech Credit CDS Widens as BTC ETFs Bleed -$585.9M

• Macro / Inflation: September CPI tops estimates! Headline prints at 3.7% YoY (vs 3.6% exp) with Core at 2.6% YoY (vs 2.5% exp). Energy surges +5.2% MoM—inflation stays sticky despite Fed hikes 🏛️
• Geopolitics: Houthis strike Riyadh airport (Oct 10-11); Iran reviews US response via Qatar. Hormuz transits collapse to 1 crossing/day (avg 26); US SPR down 30.5% YoY to 283.0M barrels 🛢️
• Credit & AI Strains: Oracle CDS blows out to 251.9 bps (~2x AVGO at 132.6 bps). OpenAI prints $50B ARR vs $70B target, raising tensions into Oct 26 Q3 earnings peak 💻
• Sovereign Risk: France OAT-Bund spread hits 152 bps (debt 119% GDP, growth 0.4%). Dems hold 62-63% odds to sweep Congress on Nov 3 📊
• Crypto Flows: BTC momentum fades on -$585.9M net ETF outflows. Strategy buys back $192.4M in STRC preferred stock (outweighing BTC buys), cash drops to $640.5M 🧱
💵 Focus: Oct 26 Earnings Peak | Nov 3 Midterms | Hormuz Shipping Bottleneck.
→ Strategy: Holding core spot, de-risking high-beta AI credit, maintaining downside put hedges.

What happened:
• Energy spikes (+5.2% MoM) drove a broad CPI beat, keeping the Federal Reserve in a hawkish box.
• Physical oil logistics reached critical levels with Hormuz down to 1 transit and SPR reserves depleted.
• Big tech credit spreads widened sharply while institutional ETF redemptions halted crypto momentum.

Now key: October 26 Tech Earnings Peak & Credit Stability. Widening CDS spreads indicate corporate debt markets are demanding higher risk premiums.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Range consolidation and spot drag as markets digest -$585.9M ETF outflows and CPI heat.
• Long term: Corporate treasury discipline (STRC buybacks) protects balance sheets through macro volatility.

CPI beat, Hormuz is down to 1 tanker, Oracle CDS hit 252 bps, and ETFs bled -$586M.
Holding core spot, managing credit risk, and keeping put protection pinned.
Macro defense mode.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 US Core CPI Drops Tonight (0.2% MoM Exp) → NY Fed Williams Dovish on 2027 → Strive Stacks 3,311 BTC ($280M) & Launches $500M "SATS" Preferred

• Macro Catalyst: Tonight's Sept CPI is the week's main event! Headline higher on energy, but Core exp to cool to +0.2% MoM (down from +0.3%).
• Fed Speak: NY Fed Pres Williams states inflation will fall "quite a bit" in 2027 & the Fed "would not need to do more" in 2027—notably more dovish than market pricing 📊
• Corporate Treasury Surge: Strive buys 3,311 BTC for $280M last week! Also announces a $500M capital raise via a new preferred equity class "SATS" with a 15% fixed dividend to buy more BTC 🧱
• BTC Levels: Consolidating firmly above the $82.8k technical pivot, clearing the runway to retest September highs at $87.3k 📈
• Derivs Execution: Desks buying 15-Oct $81,500 Puts at ~10 bps for cheap CPI tail hedges. Playing upside via Dec $98k/$104k/$105k Call Ladders ($111k exit)
💵💵 Focus: Tonight's US CPI Print & Defense of $82.8k Technical Pivot.
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC, hedging with 15-Oct $81.5k puts, structuring Dec Call Ladders.

What happened:
• Core CPI is projected to cool to +0.2% MoM, setting up the foundation for an October Fed pause.
• Strive deployed $280M into spot BTC and introduced a $500M 15% preferred equity engine ("SATS").
• Traders bought 15-Oct puts at 10 bps to protect against a supercore inflation surprise.

Now key:
Tonight's U.S. CPI Release. A clean print $\le 0.24\%$ MoM clears spot BTC to test $87.3k resistance.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: $82.8k pivot acts as the launchpad for a run toward September highs.
• Long term: Corporate treasury adoption is proliferating through preferred debt/equity structures.

CPI drops tonight, Williams capped 2027 hikes, and Strive just bought 3,311 BTC.
Holding core spot, hedging with 10 bps puts, and climbing the Dec Call Ladder.
Positioned for the print.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC01u6c
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Korean Chips Plunge (Kospi -5.5%) → BTC Defends $83k Support → Desks Bid 30-Oct Puts Ahead of CPI & Anthropic

• Global Macro: Korean chip stocks sell off overnight with Kospi down -5.5%; semis remain equities' weak link. Crude stays pinned above $100/bbl 🛢️
• BTC Resilience: Tested $81,000 overnight (2nd time this week) before snapping straight back to $83,000 support. Decoupling from tech carnage 📈
• Derivs Flow: OTC desks buying downside protection! 30-Oct 25d RR widens to 2-3v put-favored (from 0v).
Meanwhile, HYPE & SOL implied vol trades below realized vol on overwriting 📊

💵 Focus: Tomorrow's US CPI Release & Anthropic Pre-IPO Revenue Guidance.
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC at $83k, buying cheap HYPE/SOL vol (IV < RV), holding 30-Oct put hedges.

What happened:
• Asian chip equities suffered a severe liquidation while Bitcoin absorbed the shock to defend $83,000.
• Derivatives desks aggressively accumulated 30-Oct protective puts ahead of tomorrow's CPI print.
• Overwriting flows compressed HYPE and SOL implied volatility to steep discounts vs realized volatility.

Now key: Tomorrow's U.S. CPI & Anthropic Investor Day. In-line inflation removes rate-hike overhang, while hot data tests the $81k spot floor.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Choppy range consolidation anchored above $81k–$83k support under $100 crude.
• Long term: Buying compressed options volatility (HYPE IV at all-time lows) offers asymmetric Q4 convexity.

The Kospi dropped 5.5%, BTC held $83,000, and traders are bidding 30-Oct puts.
Holding core spot, buying cheap HYPE/SOL vol, and tracking tomorrow's CPI.
The floor holds.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Crude Trades >$100 on Hormuz Strikes → US CPI Expected at 3.7% → BTC & ETH See >$1B Net ETF Outflows

• Energy & Geopolitics: Crude oil trades erratically above $100/bbl post-Houthi strikes on Gulf airports & Hormuz shipping. Unconfirmed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire adds confusion 🛢️
• Macro: US CPI expected to hit 3.7% YoY on energy. However, 3 Fed officials push back on hikes, dropping Oct 28 rate hike odds to 18% 🏛️
• Majors: BTC ($83.6k) & ETH ($2.5k) drift higher into heavy overhead resistance. Institutional de-risking drives >$1 Billion in weekly ETF net outflows 📉
• Alts & Desk Flows: STRK rips +105% w/w on L1 pivot proposal. FalconX desk logs corporate treasury buying in ETH vs VC-led selling in AI names (GRASS, NEAR, ICP) 🚀
• Derivs: Downside tail-risk demand stays elevated, pushing put skews higher across BTC & ETH term structures 📊
💵 Focus: This Week's US September CPI Release (3.7% Headline Exp).
→ Strategy: Holding spot ETH, maintaining downside put hedges, keeping futures leverage flat.

What happened:
• Energy supply shocks pushed oil past $100, threatening to push headline CPI up to 3.7% YoY.
• Institutional investors de-risked heavily, pulling over $1 Billion out of BTC and ETH ETFs.
• Option traders actively bid up put skews to protect against potential CPI downside wicks.

Now key: U.S. September CPI Report. A print above 3.7% will test the Fed's 18% rate-hike probability.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Rangebound price action constrained by overhead resistance and ETF outflows.
• Long term: Corporate treasury accumulation in ETH provides a structural floor beneath spot.

Oil is over $100, ETFs bled $1B, and put skew is rising into CPI.
Holding core spot, hedging with put options, and tracking U.S. inflation.
Caution remains the tilt.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC01u6c
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Semis & AI Names Rinsed → Firmus $30B IPO Fails on Power Disconnect → Crypto Alt Rotation Exhaustion

• Equities: US markets sell off as AI & semi stocks plunge to new local lows. Energy outperforms while Info Tech is heavily dumped. Asia trading stays flat (NKY unchanged, Korea closed) 📊
• Yields: Sovereign yields retrace from overnight highs, helping global equity futures stabilize off U.S. close lows 🏛️
• Neocloud Reality Check: Firmus fails to IPO at a $30B valuation (seeking private funds with only 900MW power). 💻
• Crypto Tone: Majors remain soggy & uninspiring. Market is unable to sustain sector-wide pumps, relying on isolated single-token gambling. $DOGE drops >10% on market weakness 📉
→ Strategy: Holding cash, withholding semi dip buys, de-leveraging crypto futures.

What happened:
• Semiconductor equities plummeted as tech sector risk-off dragged memory leaders to local lows.
• Private neocloud valuations faced a severe reality check as unbacked capacity estimates failed at IPO.
• Crypto altcoin pumps became increasingly isolated while non-trending tokens like DOGE suffered double-digit drops.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Thinning crypto liquidity sets up a potential market-wide flush in majors.
• Long term: Public markets prioritizing contracted megawatt capacity ($NBIS) over private neocloud hype.

Tech got rinsed, private neoclouds got hit with reality, and DOGE fell 10%.
Holding cash, de-leveraging futures, and waiting for $MU at $950s.
Patience is key.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 FOMC Minutes Confirm Hawkish Tilt → "Bunker Mode" Warning Drips Majors → Desks Bid Oct 16 BTC Gamma

• Macro: Sept FOMC minutes show most Fed officials favor one more rate hike in 2026. However, soft NFP data dramatically lowers Nov hike odds, giving markets a temporary breather 🏛️
• Crypto Pullback: Macro relief vanishes as ETH researcher Justin Drake warns of "bunker mode." BTC, ETH, and ZEC drop toward recent lows, threatening mid-Sept gains 📉
• Spot Resilience: Selected alts hold green: ENA, AAVE, AERO, NEAR, PUMP. Token2049 Singapore keeps the industry distracted, but spot markets remain calm with no panic selling 🟢
• Derivs Spike: Institutional caution accelerates! Desks report a surge in near-dated downside protection, driven by heavy bids for 16-October BTC gamma to hedge liquidation risks 📊
• Geopolitics & Oil: US-Iran friction stays unresolved. Crude sees brief relief but energy costs remain elevated ahead of the critical Oct 14 CPI print 🛢️
💵 Focus: Oct 14 US CPI Report & Oct 16 Gamma Expiry.
→ Strategy: Buying 16-Oct downside put gamma, holding spot AAVE/ENA/NEAR, keeping futures leverage flat.

What happened:
• Hawkish Fed minutes and "bunker mode" warnings dragged digital majors back to recent lows.
• Institutional traders rushed to buy short-dated downside options to guard against liquidation cascades.
• Resilient DeFi and infrastructure tokens decoupled to stay green despite light spot volume.

Now key: October 14th U.S. CPI Report. The inflation print will single-handedly decide whether the Fed hikes again in Q4.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Range defense at recent lows as traders hold 16-Oct put hedges into CPI.
• Long term: Unleveraged spot absorption during Token2049 confirms higher structural floors.

Fed minutes were hawkish, Drake warned of bunker mode, and traders are buying Oct 16 BTC puts.
Holding core spot, hedging with Oct 16 gamma, and eyeing Oct 14 CPI.
The hedges are pinned.
--------
Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Long-End Yields Inch Up → Utilities Drive SPX Highs as Tech Languishes → Crypto Liquidity Dries Up

• Macro: Long-end bond yields continue to creep higher, straining non-AI corporate balance sheets and drawing structural parallels to historical duration stress events 🏛️
• Equities: SPX reaches new highs led strictly by defensive Utilities, while tech & semis lag. Memory stocks hit hard into the close without explicit headlines 📊
• Crypto Tone: Majors show soggy price action, alt momentum leaders are dying out, and orderbook quote depth is thinning—setting up a potential tactical downward flush 📉
• TOKEN2049 Pulse: On-the-ground sentiment shows a sharp decline in retail participation, replaced by dense institutional fund & allocator presence 💼
• Niche Flows: Heavy fund attendance at $PRL events highlights concentrated institutional interest in under-exposed, low-fee orderbook assets 🧱
💵 Warning: Market consensus claiming a "cycle bottom" clashes with drying orderbook liquidity.
→ Strategy: De-leveraging crypto futures, holding defensive equity sectors, waiting for cleaner spot entries.

What happened:
• Long-end yield creep is applying silent pressure to non-AI balance sheets despite index-level equity highs.
• S&P 500 gains were driven by defensive sector rotation rather than broad tech strength.
• Digital asset orderbooks thinned out as altcoin momentum leaders rolled over.

Now key: Crypto Orderbook Liquidity Depth. Thin quote depth leaves majors vulnerable to a sharp flush before a genuine floor forms.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Downside risk in crypto majors as fragile liquidity gets tested.
• Long term: TOKEN2049's institutional audience confirms the market is shifting toward professional capital deployment.

Yields are creeping up, Utilities are leading stocks, and crypto liquidity is drying up.
De-leveraging futures, holding defensive spot, and watching for the downside test.
Liquidity is thin.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 FinCEN Retracts $10k Rule → CFTC Opens Retail Leverage Rules → BTC Caps at $87k as Solana Partners w/ JPM

• Regulatory Relief: FinCEN withdraws proposed $10k self-custody reporting rule! CFTC opens rulemaking for federal retail leveraged crypto trading 🏛️
• Institutional Rails: Bloomberg launches Hyperliquid terminal screen; Solana collaborates with J.P. Morgan on institutional settlement 💼
• BTC & Equities: BTC tests $87,000 resistance for 3rd time in 3 weeks; equities rally on record Nasdaq close 📈
• Derivs: Overwriting pushes HYPE & XRP implied vols below realized (HYPE IV at all-time lows!).
💵 Catalysts: Wednesday 2AM SGT FOMC Minutes | Ondo AI Note Trading.
→ Strategy: Buying cheap HYPE vol, trading barrier options, holding spot ZRO/SOL.

What happened:
• Regulatory agencies delivered double relief with FinCEN withdrawing self-custody rules and the CFTC eyeing leverage.
• Institutional adoption accelerated as J.P. Morgan built on Solana and Bloomberg added Hyperliquid.
• Option implied volatility on HYPE and XRP dropped below realized volatility, opening prime options entry windows.

Now key: A Clean Close Above $87,000 BTC. Clearing $87k resistance unlocks the path toward $90,000+.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Barrier options offer cheap, structured range positioning while $87k caps spot.
• Long term: Federal CFTC leverage frameworks set up massive onshore retail volume expansion.

FinCEN dropped the $10k rule, JPM is on Solana, and option volatility is at all-time lows.
Holding core spot, buying cheap HYPE vol, and trading barrier options.
$87k is the ceiling to break.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 September Payrolls Weak (+29k) → October Fed Hike Odds Drop to ~22% → BTC Reclaims $86.7k as Wall St Lifts Target to $113k

• Macro Shift: "Oct Hike" consensus flips to "Fed on Hold"! Sept NFP adds just +29k jobs (vs +84k exp), unemployment ticks up to 4.2%, wage growth slows to 3.0% YoY. Hike odds plunge to ~22% 🏛️
• Yield Friction: 10-Year Treasury yield remains sticky at 5.25% as debt supply & term premiums override weak labor data 📊
• Target Upgrade: Major Wall St bank lifts 12-month BTC price target to $113,000 from $82,000, confirming institutional accumulation 🚀
• BTC: Trades near $86,700 (+1.8%), recovering post-payroll rejection at $87,100. Weekend liquidations light at $62.7M (68% shorts) 📈
• ETH: Holds range at $2,725 ($2.65k–$2.80k intact). Watching Sepolia Glamsterdam testnet activation on Tuesday 💻
• Key Level: BTC needs acceptance above $87,200 to confirm $90k test; $83,000 serves as structural breakout support 🧱
💵 Catalysts: Mon ISM Services | Tue Glamsterdam | Wed TOKEN2049 | Thu 2AM FOMC Minutes.
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC/ETH, playing the $84k-$88k range, keeping leverage flat ahead of FOMC Minutes.

What happened:
• Weak labor data stripped away central bank justification for an October rate hike.
• Institutional allocators used range consolidation to upgrade long-term price targets.
• Muted weekend liquidations confirm spot-backed organic demand at support levels.

Now key: Thursday 2:00 AM SGT FOMC Minutes. The document will reveal whether Chair Warsh's committee is ready to formalize an October pause.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Rangebound consolidation capped under $87,200 BTC / $2,800 ETH.
• Long term: Reclaiming $87.2k opens technical runway toward $90,000 and six-figure targets.

Payrolls missed, hike odds collapsed to 22%, and Wall Street raised its BTC target to $113k.
Holding core spot, managing $83k support, and waiting for Thursday's FOMC Minutes.
The hold is priced.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 10Y Yield Clears 5% (+53bps) → Hormuz Choked at 2 Crossings → Strategy Resumes BTC Accumulation ($142.7M)

• Macro / Rates: US Composite PMI jumps to 58.4 (strongest since Jul 2021). Accelerating growth + sticky costs drive duration demand, pushing 10Y yield above 5% (+53bps) 🏛️
• Geopolitics: Direct US-Iran talks confirmed, but Iran's 7-day plan rejected. Hormuz sits at 2 crossings vs 32 average; SPR at thinnest level since 1982 🛢️
• Trade: Trump-Xi summit extends trade truce to Jan 10, 2027 (shorter than 3–6 months floated). US-China tail risk moderates 📊
• Credit & AI: Massive AI capex re-prices credit spreads—Oracle free cash flow hits -$5.4B despite 30% rev growth (2027 capex ~$420B). OpenAI shelves finished model 💻
• Crypto: SEC approves tokenized stock exemption. Strategy (MSTR) resumes BTC buys, stacking $142.7M in spot BTC 🧱
💵 Question: Does duration demand ease, or does repricing fuel further term premium?
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC/ETH, de-leveraging corporate credit, keeping put hedges active.

What happened:
• Re-accelerating growth and massive AI debt issuance drove the 10-Year yield past 5%.
• Physical energy supply remains choked as US-Iran ceasefire terms were rejected.
• Michael Saylor re-opened Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation engine with a $142.7M buy.

Now key: Long-End Term Premium Expansion. Yields holding above 5.00% will test corporate credit while spot BTC absorbs yield drag.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Rangebound spot consolidation as markets digest 5% Treasury yields and Hormuz bottlenecks.
• Long term: SEC tokenized equity exemptions + MSTR cash deployment reinforce structural crypto rails.

The 10Y yield hit 5%, Hormuz is down to 2 tankers, and Saylor just bought $142.7 Million in BTC.
Holding core spot, managing credit risk, and tracking term premium.
The accumulation resumes.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 NY Fed's Williams Signals "No Urgency" → Consumer Confidence Drops to 81.9 → BTC Holds $82.8k Support Ahead of Core PCE

• Fed Division: NY Fed Pres Williams signals "no urgency" for an Oct hike (points to pause), while Gov Barr warns "further adjustments needed." Oct rate hike odds fall below 50% 🏛️
• Macro: Consumer Confidence drops 6.7 pts to 81.9 (lowest since 2014). U.S. 30Y Treasury yields touch multi-decade highs 📊
• BTC: Trades in tight range, holding key technical support at $82.8k despite yield pressure 📉
• PCE Catalyst: Tonight's Core PCE (0.3% MoM exp) is the key arbiter. Hot print risks a break below $82.8k toward $80,000 🛢️
• Trade Setup: Compressed option vols make long wing optionality cheap. Preparing to scale into year-end Call Spreads & Bullish Seagulls on any dip to $80k 💵
💵 Focus: Tonight's US Core PCE Inflation Release.
→ Strategy: Holding spot at $82.8k support, scaling bullish spreads at $80k, buying cheap alt wing options.

What happened:
• Dovish signals from Fed President Williams pushed October rate-hike odds back below 50%.
• Consumer confidence hit 12-year lows, highlighting expanding macroeconomic drag.
• Bitcoin held $82.8k technical support as options implied volatility compressed to entry floors.

Now key: Tonight's U.S. Core PCE Inflation Report. A print above 0.3% MoM will test $82.8k support and re-ignite Fed hike odds.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Potential sweep down to $80,000 on a hot PCE print offering an attractive re-entry window.
• Long term: Pre-election geopolitical energy deals could cool inflation and unlock a Q4 risk rally.

Williams signaled no urgency, consumer confidence plunged, and BTC is holding $82.8k.
Holding core spot, preparing $80k call spread entries, and buying cheap option wings.
PCE drops tonight.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 BTC Enters Quarter-End +40% & ETH +70% → Oct Rate Hike Odds Hit 67% → HYPE Faces $904M Unlock Today

• Q3 Finish: Crypto sentiment stays bullish into quarter-end! BTC on track for >+40% Q3 & ETH close to +70%, 1st positive quarter for both majors since Q3 2025 📈
• Macro: 10Y/30Y yields hover near multi-decade highs. Brent crude holds $100/bbl post-Trump ceasefire rejection. Kalshi odds for an October Fed hike jump from 50% to 67% 🏛️
• HYPE faces $904M unlock today (~4.5% of circulating supply)
• Derivs: Implied vols remain suppressed across term structures due to heavy overwriting → prime window to buy longer-dated vega 📊
• Tech: Pre-IPO Anthropic perps trade at ~$2T valuation on Binance following leaked prospectus 🤖

💵 Focus: Aug Core PCE Tomorrow | Friday NFP | HOOD Summit Product Drops.
→ Strategy: Buying cheap term vega, hedging HYPE unlock risk, holding core spot majors.

What happened:
• Digital majors are closing out their best quarterly performance since Q3 2025 despite $100 oil.
• Kalshi money markets aggressively priced in higher odds (67%) of an October Fed rate hike.
• Option volatility remains suppressed, creating a prime window to buy longer-dated convexity.

Now key: Tomorrow's U.S. Core PCE Inflation Report. Crucial test for central bank rate hike pricing ahead of Friday's NFP.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Range consolidation into quarter-end as options traders accumulate suppressed vega.
• Long term: Q3 outperformance (+40% BTC / +70% ETH) confirms structural institutional demand.

BTC is up 40% this quarter, ETH is up 70%, and option vega is dirt cheap.
Holding core spot, buying longer-dated vega, and tracking tomorrow's PCE. Q3 is locked in.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Cross-Asset Cash Flush Hits Gold & Stocks → US Rejects Hormuz Ceasefire → BTC Tests $82.8k Support

• Macro Flush: Simultaneous sell-off across Nasdaq-100 (744 → 737), Gold ($4,260 → $4,147), BTC ($84.5k → $82.8k) & DXY 📉
• Deleveraging: Falling Dollar alongside risk assets signals a cash-extraction & gross deleveraging dynamic, not a standard flight-to-safety 💸
• Geopolitics & Crude: US formally rejects proposed Hormuz ceasefire terms over the weekend → Brent crude surges on prolonged energy supply fears 🛢️
• Data Gauntlet: High-stakes macro week ahead with both PCE Inflation and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on deck 📊
• Derivs & ETFs: Front-end options implied vols stay elevated on heavy downside put buying; spot BTC ETF flows hesitate 💵
💵 Focus: PCE & NFP Releases + Defense of $82.8k BTC Support.
→ Strategy: Holding spot BTC at $82.8k support, maintaining put option hedges, keeping futures leverage flat.

What happened:
• Geopolitical breakdown in Middle East ceasefire talks drove a sharp energy price repricing.
• Broad macro books executed gross risk reduction, forcing liquidations across gold, equities, and crypto.
• Options traders actively bid up front-end put protection ahead of PCE and NFP data.

Now key: This Week's PCE & NFP Reports. Data showing sticky inflation or labor strength will heighten central bank tightening fears.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Range test at $82,800 technical support amid ETF hesitation.
• Long term: Broad deleveraging cleanses short-term leverage, setting up a healthier spot baseline once data clears.

Gold dropped, stocks fell, US rejected the Hormuz ceasefire, and BTC is testing $82.8k.
Holding core spot, hedging with put options, and tracking PCE and NFP data.
$82.8k is the line in the sand.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY

[Rising Capital @Rising_Cap]

📡 Rising Market Pulse

🧭 Trump-Xi Extend Trade Truce to Jan 2027 → Jobless Claims Stay <200k → BTC Bounces Off $82.8k Support to $84k

• Macro: Treasury Sec Bessent confirms US-China trade truce extended to Jan 10, 2027, averting immediate Nov tariffs 🏛️
• Fed Rhetoric: Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack warns inflation risks stay tilted to upside. Jobless claims <200k for 2nd straight week → Oct rate hike firmly on table 📊
• Energy: Crude eases on Iran's "7-day proposal" to open Hormuz, though ties to repudiated June MoU make a real breakthrough unlikely 🛢️
• Exchange News: Bitget suffers $351M exploit & pauses withdrawals; customer funds covered by $464M insurance fund (0 desk exposure) 🛡️
• BTC Price Action: Bounces precisely off $82.8k technical support to consolidate near $84,000 as quarterly options expire 📈
💵 Focus: Oct FOMC Hike Odds & Defense of $82.8k Support.
→ Strategy: Building Oct BTC strangles, deploying Dec HYPE/SOL strangles, setting up $92k/$105k call spreads.

What happened:
• The US-China trade truce extension removed an immediate November tariff shock.
• Bitcoin executed a textbook technical bounce directly off $82.8k technical support.
• Today's quarterly options expiry cleared, sending implied volatility back toward entry-friendly floors.

Now key: Post-Expiry Volatility Re-Positioning. As front-month IV softens, deploying long strangles and upside call spreads offers clean Q4 convexity.

Bigger picture:
• Short term: Rangebound consolidation above $82.8k support as option positions roll.
• Long term: Unleveraged spot buying defending breakout shelves confirms higher structural floors.

Trade truce extended, BTC bounced off $82.8k, and post-expiry options vol is softening.
Holding core spot, deploying Oct/Dec strangles, and preparing $92k/$105k call spreads.
The support held.
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Rising manages a crypto-focused quantitative fund and offers SMA strategies for HNIs, family offices, and institutions.
If you're looking for structured, actively managed exposure in volatile markets, feel free to reach out: https://t.co/zRmCC021VK
Not Financial Advice!!!
#digitalassets #quant #hedgefund #BTC #DXY