Robbie Fraser

Filmmaker | Writer | Producer/Director of PICTURES FROM... AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, THE BALKANS & UKRAINE | FINAL ASCENT | HAMISH | MD @DulcimerFilms | part time EP

[Robbie Fraser @Robbie_Fraser]

Proud of these and the team that made them. Please give them a look.

[Dulcimer Films @DulcimerFilms]

PICTURES FROM UKRAINE: Two films about one year in Ukraine, from a war photographer's point of view. With @foreigncorr1, from @BBCScotland - NOW LIVE ON iPLAYER #ukraine #picturesfrom #bbcdocs https://t.co/uULfuPeDP7

[Robbie Fraser @Robbie_Fraser]

@OzKaterji Thank you @OzKaterji

[Oz Katerji @OzKaterji]

This article is even worse than Lynch’s, and is written by an outright apologist for the Bosnian genocide. Speaking as a frequent contributor, the insane pivot on foreign policy this magazine is going through is alarming. These articles are completely divorced from reality.

[Robbie Fraser @Robbie_Fraser]

At the bottom of this free to read article is a link to the first of the Yale history lectures mentioned, which I'd highly recommend - you can also get them as podcast eps in various places so you don't have to clickwade through Youtube playlists

[FT World News @ftworldnews]

Historian Tim Snyder: ‘Our misreading of Russia is deep. Very deep’ https://t.co/H9xSLJUAFd

[Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien]

well, @nytimes reporting that Pentagon sources are saying that the 'main thrust' of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is now underway. Weird, I thought it had failed. https://t.co/HV8vwAmLvS

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

“The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle.”

https://t.co/LVUvwRD4S3

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

BREAKING:

New York Times writes that Ukraine has now started its main thrust of the counteroffensive, with thousands of Western-trained and Western-equipped reinforcements troops now thrown into battle

They had been held back until now, waiting for Russian lines to stretch.

🇺🇦

[David Pratt @foreigncorr1]

This by ⁦⁦@alittl⁩ is well worth reading. The life of one great foreign - correspondent- George Alagiah- as remembered by another who was both colleague and friend - Allan Little. https://t.co/HyzY14B1lK

[Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald]

#Odesa residents clear up debris from around the heavily damaged Transfiguration #Cathedral in the city's UNESCO-protected historic center. A lively port city, bombing Odesa is a bit like bombing a city on the French Riviera. Kremlin media yet to mention hitting the cathedral.

[Robbie Fraser @Robbie_Fraser]

Please tune in to watch these films, or catch them on iPlayer. I'm privileged to have worked with Doug on many occasions. You can also see and hear him talk as a contributor in "Hamish". This is a wonderful act of institutional memory and gratitude from @bbcalba

[Robbie Fraser @Robbie_Fraser]

Just watched LOST CITY OF Z on Netflix (UK) by James Gray (AD ASTRA, LITTLE ODESSA). It had completely passed me by when it came out but is phenomenal. Definitely worth a watch https://t.co/g7V4UF978V

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

Anders Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College, posted a brief analysis of the current state and prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive:

◾️The Ukrainian offensive is not going as fast as many had hoped. It may even not be going as fast as the Ukrainians themselves had hoped, but that doesn't mean they won't be able to succeed later this summer.

◾️The Russians are trying to re-gain the initiative in some directions, for example, by attacking in Luhansk region, but all these attacks did not lead to any significant changes in the front line. Ukraine attacks in three directions – from Orikhiv, Velyka Novosilka and Bakhmut. From Orikhiv, the most likely target is Tokmak, an important logistical hub. Although it is still far away, after a collapse of the Russian defense, things can go much faster. The re-taken area near Velyka Novosilka is also quite significant, the goal of this direction is similar to the offensive from Orikhiv – to cut off the logistics routes of the Russian Armed Forces between the Donetsk region and Crimea.

◾️However, the situation is different in Bakhmut – there are no powerful lines of fortifications. An offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the flanks can force the invaders to leave Bakhmut under the threat of encirclement, which will have a huge psychological effect on them, given how they trumpeted the battle for the city in their propaganda. The battle for Bakhmut is also important in that it draws Russian reserves from other directions, as well as from a psychological point of view, showing both domestic and foreign audiences the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win.

◾️It is impossible to exclude the crossing of the Dnieper by Ukrainian fighters. This will create huge problems for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which will find it extremely difficult to fight off simultaneous attacks in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

◾️Ukraine received a lot of Western military equipment for maneuver (mobile) warfare, not attrition warfare, and the West was counting on a quick breakthrough of Russian defenses. However, two serious mistakes were made:

1️⃣ Underestimation of the Russians – after all their previous stupidity, many in the West believed that it was only necessary to give the Armed Forces enough Western military equipment and sprinkle NATO doctrine on top, then the victory would be won by itself.

2️⃣ It cannot be said that NATO countries themselves are waging an exclusively maneuver warfare, and not a war of attrition. Before a maneuver war, in any case, it is necessary to weaken the enemy's defense lines – and in the West this is done by air force, gaining air superiority and destroying ground targets. When transferring military equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this part of the depletion from the air was forgotten.

◾️Because the Russian line of defense is too solid to break it with maneuver without attrition first, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to use the tactics of limited advance by infantry groups with powerful counter-battery combat. But after the Russian Armed Forces have suffered enough losses, it will be possible to try again to break through their defenses by maneuver, taking into account the fact that most of the Western equipment has not yet been involved.

◾️In Ukraine, ground-based artillery, not fighter aircrafts, is engaged in the attrition of enemy forces. Fortunately, Western leaders have begun to better understand what a titanic task lies before the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operating with a limited number of aircrafts. And that’s where cluster munitions will be very useful – this is the only way to quickly increase the firepower of Ukraine for quick success.

The video with the full analysis can be found here: https://t.co/HUrPR60MSu

[Robbie Fraser @Robbie_Fraser]

@DulcimerFilms @TBLTalkMedia @foreigncorr1 @Detroit67Book @EamonnONeill Thanks for the menshie @foreigncorr1 - there is a wee paywall but it's a really good show !!

[Dulcimer Films @DulcimerFilms]

A great podcast conversation from @TBLTalkMedia between @foreigncorr1, @Detroit67Book and @EamonnONeill covering a lot of ground - a great insight for anyone who has enjoyed our films in the series "Pictures From..." and the literal and figurative minefields involved in this work

[Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald]

Major attack going on in Ukraine. Explosions in Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskiy, Kyiv left bank. Shahed flying bombs approaching capital, cruise missiles targeting western oblasts. Slept through air raid alert. Tired.

[Agnes C. Poirier @AgnesCPoirier]

RIP Milan Kundera https://t.co/hjd0cE3YcT

[Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald]

Safe to say it’s probably not in honor of Cow Appreciation Day, National Free Slurpee Day, National Mojito Day, World Population Day, or National Blueberry Muffin Day.

https://t.co/ltVYkgVI9v

[Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR]

Today I asked Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov whether the June 24th deal with Yevgeny Prigozhin (about him going to Belarus post-insurrection) remains valid. His reply: "There are no fresh details I can tell you about this." Still more questions than answers...

[Jens Stoltenberg @jensstoltenberg]

Glad to announce that after the meeting I hosted with @RTErdogan & @SwedishPM, President Erdogan has agreed to forward #Sweden's accession protocol to the Grand National Assembly ASAP & ensure ratification. This is an historic step which makes all #NATO Allies stronger & safer.

[Robbie Fraser @Robbie_Fraser]

@jm_stout @annemcelvoy @valmcdermid 🙌🙌🙌 щиро вітаю Jen !

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

There is exactly one week left until the key day of the @NATO Summit in Vilnius. That means a week until the key moment for our common security in Europe. We are working with our partners as hard as we can to ensure that our common security in Vilnius prevails. It all depends on our partners.