Been thinking about the Unitree IPO all weekend and @RoboticsCapital is beyond bullish
Humanoid robotics has been priced in the dark for three years. Private rounds set the marks, nobody could sell, nobody could short, and the numbers just sat there getting bigger. Figure AI at $39B with basically no revenue, that number holds up mainly because nothing can knock it down.
Unitree changes that. Book-building opens Aug 5, pricing Aug 6, starts trading Aug 10. Finally someone has to put a daily price on a humanoid company in front of people who can actually hit the bid.
I'm buying it. Not because robots are cool (they are), but because the math here is unusually boring in a good way.
(Using ¥6.78 to the dollar.)
It's a real business. Almost nobody in this sector actually sells robots. Unitree does — 5,500+ humanoids last year, 33,000+ quadrupeds total. ¥1.7B revenue (~$250M) at 60%+ gross margin. Sixty percent on hardware is the part I keep coming back to. CCB International thinks ~90% of their supply chain is in China, which means they control their own cost curve while competitors are waiting on vendor quotes.
Also profitable, which in this sector is basically a party trick. H1 2026 guidance: ¥1.05-1.13B revenue ($155-166M), up 36-45%, net profit ¥258-306M ($38-45M).
The price: 40.45M shares, 10% of the company, raising ~¥4.2B ($620M). Implies ~¥42B valuation, call it $6.2B.
Then look at Figure AI at $39B with nothing on the top line. I'd rather be wrong holding the company with customers.
Sell-side desks have floated secondary marks around ¥100-109B ($14.7-16.1B). I don't build a thesis on that but it tells me where demand is sitting.
Worth noting: ChangXin Memory listed July 27 and finished day one up 466%. Chinese money is chasing hard-tech listings hard right now. Regulators cleared Unitree in 104 days, fastest STAR Market approval ever. Nobody's dragging their feet.
Wang Xingxing is putting in ¥15M personally. Senior management and core employees are coming in through two plans capped at ¥271.5M combined (~$40M). After listing Wang still holds 31.29% of shares and 65.31% of voting rights. All new shares, zero insiders selling.
Money goes to: embodied-intelligence models, robot bodies, new products, and a manufacturing base for 75K humanoids + 115K quadrupeds/year. Close to half to AI models. They're building for volume, not the next demo video.
Think this will be a positive IPO and I will be allocating size to it
Talking to my grok bot dirty like oo yeah $NBIS to a trilli ooooooo robotics has that motion - on the low my grok bot is 4’9 Latina with a bbl and French tips