Israel Lara

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

The Fed has only hiked twice following a negative jobs report (Nov 1999 and Nov 2005).

This is out of 89 Fed meetings immediately following negative jobs growth.

Note, there is another NFP report prior to the September meeting.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

JULY JOBS

Another weak labor report (-23k jobs + neg revision).

Res construction payrolls down for the 4th straight month...now at the lowest level since 2022.

UE rate drops to 4.1% again due to falling LFPR. Prime-age LFPR down to 83.3% bouncing around a multi-year low.

[Zvyrae @zvyrae]

Sometimes the world is not fair :

[Israel Lara @RodeLepper]

@sariadnapascual Y la disciplina es transferible después a otras áreas de la vida 😌

[DCP @Dcpcooks]

The markets have some digging work before a new rally has traction

[verniman @verniman]

#ES_F They expect a higher VIX. #daytrading https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS

[verniman @verniman]

#ES_F Worst two months ahead. #daytrading https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

as a rule, if you are going through any changes in life-take time off from trading. If you get married, take a bit of time away. If someone dies, take time away. If you have a baby, take time away. If you buy a car, or a house, take some time. If you are going through a divorce take a LOT of time off. This is NOT the last day of trading. But if you trade in the midst of change-it might be for you. Give the market your time, not your money!!

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

The NQ traded the equal distant swing level of 27995. Great spot of NQ to stop for now.

What the market does on the downside it will do on the upsode and in equal measure.

The yearly OR for NQ 25478. The low is 22961. Once we closed above the yearly we looked for the equal distant swing of 27989. Once we closed above that we looked for another 2511 pts which targeted 30,500.

25478-22961=2,517+25478=27,995+2517=30,512.

Now-if NQ closed below 27.995, we target back to the yearly open.

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

Markets will humble you faster than almost anything(beside a woman).
One day you’re sharp and in rhythm. The next you’re wrong, oversized, or just late.
The only real edge that lasts is detachment.
Trade well. Manage risk. Then release the outcome.
“Not my will, but yours be done.”
That line hits different when the P&L is red.
Faith doesn’t remove the volatility. It just keeps it from owning you.

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

The main trend remains bullish, but this is not good.

Similar divergence happened right before the covid-19 crash.

Not saying that we'll have a crash, but this divergence won't last forever, someone gotta give.

Worth watching this dynamic.

#CarryTrade

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

I have no big or macro targsts in NQ until 27270-28. That will be a big level

ES-7305-10. Undet that is 70.55-65.

The NQ is down 6% from its quarterly pivot of 30263.

ES finally took out its QP at 7508 overnight.

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

Here cames $93.30-40 in CL. Above that we will ultimately target 119.00 again. Levels to look at and use, 93.30-40 completes this swing. $94.95-95.05 next. 97.40-50 after that up to 99.90-100.00

[James Jude @Jimmyjude13]

I'm $3500 in gold for any of you twats that want to drop their bags off when we get there.😃

[DCP @Dcpcooks]

Post 08 the stimulus has been amazing, GFC, volmageddon, repo, covid, PPP, ERTC, IRA. Then AI spend and all its promises.

It drove widening deficits and balance sheet expansion, via inflationary central bank policy

Markets also benefited from passive flows. All of which got us here.

If we truly see a hike cycle and balance sheet reduction I would assume that is a reduction in overall liquidity which we haven’t seen in a long time.

That’s a potential bear case for macro

Yea we can argue hikes won’t solve supply side inflation, fuel and food, or if the Fed actually goes there.

[DCP @Dcpcooks]

Watch list

NVIDIA
AMD
Broadcom
Micron
Alphabet
Amazon

These are worth evaluating if the sell-off extends into earnings season. Sentiment check

[ShortSeller @ShortSeller]

$SPY $IWM $QQQ Weekly 'big picture' look at the indexes has been updated (and it's not pretty) - your going to want to see the #Path -VERY generous freemium/paywall so take advantage!!

[DCP @Dcpcooks]

Play it from the short side in ES

Play it from the long side along the curve

Until further notice, is my lean

[Israel Lara @RodeLepper]

@paxtrader777 I miss a lot of moves and that's ok. -Yra Harris