Roger Soh

a peace of mind

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Let's simplify things.

The 4 yr cycle was only the 4 yr cycle because the last three business cycles were ~4 yrs.

The global business cycle has always driven Bitcoin's. When it topped, Bitcoin topped. When it reversed off the bottom, Bitcoin went parabolic. Even the shapes of charted business cycle metrics have dictated the shapes of Bitcoin cycles.

ISM is a well-accepted measure of this business cycle. Look at the last 3 yrs. A mini-cycle at best, flat at worst. ISM never pushed above 50, and thus crypto never went parabolic. Halving or not.

Why? A strong argument for the ~4 yr business cycle cadence has been the ~4 yr refinancing cycle of US debt. This time, the US holds an additional ~1.5 yrs of average debt maturity due to the COVID-induced rate crash. Likely extending the business cycle by ~1.5 yrs. @RaoulGMI and @BittelJulien have spoken about this at length.

Now to look ahead.

The green signal has always mirrored ISM. More recently, it has led.

What do we see? A major uptick off the bottom. The stuff that starts Bitcoin runs, not ends them. Not on the hourly chart. On the monthly and quarterly.

ISM is expected to follow, and finally lift off its 3 yr floor.

Fifteen years of history tells us what crypto likely does next.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@AshCrypto Done with wave 2, impulsive wave 3 incoming.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@IncomeSharks @CryptoKaleo Yes, bullish too early that's why no money to buy dip.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@benjamincowen "people" are a lot of retail traders in this space, we all wanted a alt season. You sounds like you are standing at the sideline to give judgement. I respected those who says "we" instead of "people".

[THORSwap ⚡ #BetterThanCEX @THORSwap]

Cross-chain Swaps via @THORChain are fully functional on @THORSwap.

[👑Crypto Caesar👑™️ @crypto_caesar1]

👑 Quick Market Update 👑

I have just come back from my family vacation so have been slightly vacant from X. Now I’m back.

I am still very bullish on #Bitcoin and #Crypto in general. It looks like we are NOT going to have an early top and left translated cycle. That means we will likely follow something close to the 4 year cycle topping out in mid or the latter part of 2025.

We have had a total of a 32% drawdown and a long consolidation period of 170 days. My guess is that once we enter Q4 (Oct-Dec) things will starting heating up for both #Bitcoin and #altcoins.

As you all know I wrote an article supporting the possibility of a summer rally. It seems I was wrong on that call but we still have remained in range and reached 69k in August so not too far off my prediction of 80k in August.

That being said I think Bitcoin will start to attack its ATH in Q4 and run away from it causing the ‘mania phase’ which will in turn allow alts to rip hard to the upside.

In relation to altcoins I see BTC.D at about 58/60% before alts begin to rip. For me that puts #BTC around the 80k mark for the beginning of a mania phase. At 58/60% BTC.D will start to fall off a cliff then the good alts will start to out perform Bitcoin considerably IMO.

Bullish Factors:

1. BTC still holds well on the monthly chart and bulls have stepped in at 50k and above.
2. The large shadow (wick) on the monthly chart is a sign of strength.
3. The miners have completely capitulated and the hash-ribbons are coiling.
4. Major institutions are now buying BTC.
5. We have only seen the beginning of the ETFs.
6. The Germans have dumped their BTC.
7. The MtGox holders are not interested in selling.
8. We are exactly where we should be in the cycle.
9. Global Liquidity is close to breaking out.
10. 16b in user funds from FTX are being credited in September/October/Nov.
11. The possible TRUMP admin are bullish crypto.
12. BTC.D is still very high.
13. All indicators suggest we are nowhere near a top.
14. Onchain isn’t indicating a top.

Bearish Factors:

1. The economy is fragile and the JPY carry trade is worrying. Just the other day we saw how things can turn and turn quick. If there is a meltdown BTC will be the first to feel the pain. That being said the JCB have said they will not fuck with IRs until next year to allow stability.
2. The Harris admin coming into power. I honestly don’t know what their position will be on crypto as they haven't pinned their colours to the mast as yet. However, to win votes she might u-turn to pro-crypto (let’s hope so).
3. War in the middle east is possible atm. Iran are on the brink. This is worrying. However, commodities generally do well in such environments. The only issue we have with this though is BTC is being considered a ‘risk on asset’ atm not a commodity.
4. The Biden admin selling Silk Road BTC.

All in all I think the bullish factors outweigh the bearish. I still remain in full position and remain positive. It may take some mire weeks of consolidation before we start pushing above 74k but I’m cool with that.

Any moves lower are an opportunity. Remember every September after a halving has always historically been a good entry point (see chart).

I will follow up with some charts etc but the above is my general position. Patience.

End.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@bitcoinarchive Ok, 61000... again

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@PizzinoMichael I have been watching both yours and Jason channel since last bull market. Both of you bring valuable free contents day after day. Im waiting to ride to the top with you and dump the bags to call the end of this cycle! It's damn hard to be in crypto.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@Crypto_Ed_NL Could the last correction be only 4th wave, currently is 1st wave of 5th.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@Crypto_Ed_NL Understand, I heard you mentioned about group in your videos. Where can I get the access? 🙏

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@FundedNext Surely RSI. The only tool that can predict future price.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@Ashcryptoreal With a proper correction for BTC and altcoins 1st before moon is safer here.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@IncomeSharks Much respect your view. A true trader thinks of probabilities, follows plan and cut noises.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@MuroCrypto A bounce can be happening anytime from here as most are oversold.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@IncomeSharks Sometimes we have to follow the sentiment and trend. It's just sideways action and waiting for the next move.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

If Bitcoin spot ETF gets approved by
end of next week. I will give $5,000
bitcoin to 5 people randomly. Just
like, retweet and make sure you are
following me. Lets pray for ETF

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@bitcoinarchive @EleanorTerrett Ok, true facts don't shake the market, only fud do.

[Roger Soh @RogerSoh6]

@bitcoinarchive Approval is round the corner. Exchanges needs to clear the leverage 1st.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

If Bitcoin breaks $50k by end of 2023
I will give $5,000 BTC to 50 people.
Just like, retweet and make sure you
are following me. Pls send it