Rohan Tambade

Mechanical Engineer

[Equity Insights Elite @EquityInsightss]

Biggest challenge India will face is the manpower...

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

while imported crane kits are reportedly underpriced by 25–30% and local manufacturing may raise competitor costs by 8–10%.

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

ACE says anti-dumping duties could reshape the market: without them, JV revenue may be 300 crores in 3-4 years, but with duties it could scale to 700-800 crores. There’s still no action yet from the govn on anti-dumping duties. 1/2

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

So losing 15% rev moves EBITDA margin by only 0-2 pts either way. Real pain is 10-20% hit to EBITDA level + derating risk. lower growth/valuation because you lose a tech/export engine, rather than a collapse in the margin profile of the whole business. (Worst Case) 7

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

🧵Jyoti CNC Automation : What we know about margins today? Recent disclosures put Jyoti’s consolidated EBITDA margin around 27–30% in FY25 and recent quarters (Q4 FY25-30.9%, FY25 28–29%) Huron + other overseas subs are <15% of revenue; India standalone is >85%. 1

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

Case 3 (Huron thinner margins, m = 20%):
Lost EBITDA = 0.20·0.15R = 0.03R
New margin ≈ (0.28−0.03)/0.85 ≈ 29.4%. EBITDA −10.7% 6

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

Case 2 (If Huron higher margins, m = 35%):
Lost EBITDA = 0.35·0.15R = 0.0525R
New margin ≈ (0.28−0.0525)/0.85 ≈ 25.6%. EBITDA −18.8%. 5

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

Case 1 (Huron = grp, m = 28%):
Lost EBITDA = 0.28·0.15R = 0.042R
New margin = 0.238 ÷ 0.85 ≈ 28% (flat). EBITDA −15%. 4

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

Assume: total rev = R, group EBITDA margin = 28%. So EBITDA = 0.28R. Huron share = 15% of R. New rev if lost = 0.85R.

if Huron margin = m:
New EBITDA = 0.28R − m·0.15R
New margin = (0.28 − 0.15m) ÷ 0.85 3

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

Jyoti CNC risk view: Huron (France) =15% of rev. Core story = India CNC + capex. Worst hit is EBITDA level, not core margin. 2

[Tijori @Tijori1]

Commercial Vehicle cycle looks strong and anciallries are a great way to play.

Here is a list of ancillaries and their exposure

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

This points to at least one stressed customer exposure, with potential impact on receivable recovery and provisioning.

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

🚰 Just went through Denta Water & Infra Solutions latest results & monitoring report. Business pipeline looks strong, but there are some serious working capital and cash flow watchpoints. Thread 🧵

Revenue & Profits - Flat Earnings

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

🏗️ Project execution risk:
1) Company has sought extension of time (EoT) on 4 projects; outstanding receivables on these - ₹169.5 cr.
2) Work is said to be continuing without hindrance, but approvals are “important for smooth operations”

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

⚠️ Working Capital :
1) Monitoring agency notes working capital days have “significantly” increased in FY25.
2) Net working capital almost doubled between 31 Mar 2025 and 31 Dec 2025.
3) Reason: work completed is stuck in inventory/unbilled due to slow billing and collections.

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

Monitoring agency + notes confirm funds are fully utilised as per objects (working capital, GCP, issue expenses) with no deviation.

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

✅ Positives first:
1) Order book - ₹841.5 cr as of 31 Dec 2025 strong revenue visibility.
2) New orders of - ₹377.3 cr between Apr-Dec 2025, including - ₹161.1 cr in Q3 alone.
3) Auditor’s limited review is clean.

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

@shiladitya4u In concall,spoke confidently about Semiconductor equipment opportunity (developing nano‑precision machines for fab equipment, 8-10 different equipment types).In house controller/drive/motor under the electronics PLI,with an expected 4-5% gross margin uplift & strong gov tailwinds

[Rohan Tambade @RohanTambade]

@Atulsingh_asan For Jyoti CNC Market is pricing in 50%+ EPS CAGR, ₹450cr capex execution,44% defence/aero stable order book,current (2.5 yrs order book visibility (capacity from 6000 machines to 16000),20‑21% margins,₹3,500cr FY28E rev @ 80% cap uti, Frwd 29x PE looks fair for a 25‑30% grower.

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

Different players in the Indian Commercial Vehicle Landscape