@ChrisCamillo@EdwardEidUnfilt I didnโt want to hop In $SG because I avoid going there sometimes solely because their drink options suck. Wonder who else does this
@LongGameEquity This news dropped during open market hours ๐ญ I think market already reacted to this. Pretty sure this has been talked about before as well
Everything about $FLNC converges on one date:
August 5.
Everything points to a pleasant surprise after $BE's earnings.
โ $5.6B backlog.
โ 2 hyperscalers deal.
The flashiest piece of the story has $NVDA's name on it.
โ Start with the headline partnership: Fluence was named the exclusive storage partner in the NVIDIAโSiemens AI-factory reference design.
โ But the detail that matters: the design specs 2-3 HOUR batteries. The market assumed 1 hour.
Every data center built on that architecture buys 2-3x the storage.
And the blueprint stopped being vapor on May 7: master supply agreements signed with TWO hyperscalers.
โ Read it precisely: Fluence is now a QUALIFIED supplier. It still competes for each concrete order. Nebreda says talks are on with more hyperscalers.
The data center pipeline: ~12 GWh, mostly tied to those MSAs.
Jefferies called it "The 'BESS Case' Scenario".
The deals landed earlier than expected.
The technical detail I love most: per management, data center customers need power QUALITY, not just duration.
Fluence won on advanced controls and fast response.
That's a software moat, not an iron moat.
The order momentum is the best in its history:
โ ~$2B signed this fiscal year. Double last year's pace.
โ Record $5.6B backlog.
โ $600M+ more in the first weeks of Q3.
โ HALF of this year's bookings from NEW customers.
That last number is narrative gold.
The class action's core claim is that Fluence depended on Siemens and AES.
Best rebuttal possible: a book where half the new business is third parties.
โ The market already voted once: on earnings day the stock ripped ~42% premarket DESPITE a revenue miss.
Backlog, MSAs and the domestic-content tailwind beat one quarter's shipping delays.
The stock doubled in three months.
โ The quiet moat: the same tariffs that nearly killed 2025 now work FOR them.
Cells in Tennessee. Modules in Utah. Cabinets and BMS in Arizona.
FEOC rules punish every competitor running Chinese cells.
โ Already converting: Avantus' Rexford 2, 800 MWh in Southern California, built on domestically produced Smartstack.
โ The legal cleanup nobody prices: the $230M Diablo disgorgement claim, dismissed in court. Moss Landing, settled, non-material, no admission.
The SEC matter and class action remain. But the two bombs with concrete numbers attached are defused.
โ The operational recovery: adjusted gross margin back to 11.1% from 5.6%. ~$900M liquidity. Guidance reaffirmed. First Smartstack in commercial operation.
โ Sell-side turning: Citi to Buy at $24. GLJ initiating at $26.
And here's what makes THIS dip different from every small-cap bleed you know:
The sell-off isn't an offering. It isn't dilution.
No new shares issued. No raise announced. Not one dollar of dilution behind the drop.
The May secondary?
Legacy holders (the Siemens/AES stakes) selling THEIR existing shares.
Zero new stock created.
Zero proceeds to the company.
That's float overhang, not dilution.
Know the difference.
They still hold a large amount of shares.
They sold because they need to fund their own business, AES is being acquired, Siemens has a lot of capex.
A stock cut in half on sentiment while its order book hits all-time highs. That's the shape I look for.
Now, August 5.
The first hyperscaler ORDER was guided to land within the quarter being reported that day.
โ If it shows up with megawatts and a customer: the data center thesis goes from promise to revenue, and every layer validates in chain.
I'm long $FLNC. Qualified is not guaranteed.
That's exactly why the date matters.
NFA. DYOR.