Roland Fairmont

Chairman, Ofek Kesef Asset Management | Risk discipline & global markets | Long-term portfolio thinking

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

US debt grows by $1T every 122 days. The MOVE Index hits 75.2. Sovereign debt is no longer pristine collateral; it is a volatile liability. I reject paper promises and demand verifiable hard collateral.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Macro #CollateralCrisis

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Public liquidity is a trap. My answer: The "Lock-Up Defense." I extract a 215-265 bps premium in private credit and secure collateral via $14.8B+ in RWA infrastructure. Lock up capital. Lock in truth.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #PrivateMarkets #Macro #RWA

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

With >90% of public loans going "covenant-lite," the crowd traded legal armor for fake liquidity. I refuse. In private credit, I use bespoke term sheets to dictate structural control. Covenants > Liquidity.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #PrivateCredit #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Public liquidity is an illusion that vanishes under stress. With equity order book depth down 32% and private dry powder at $4.63T, I refuse to pay for a daily ticker. I lock up capital to extract illiquidity premiums.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Macro #PrivateMarkets

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Watch the ultimate insiders. With central banks hoarding 244 tons of gold in Q1 and prices near $4,500/oz, sovereigns are actively defecting from fiat debt. I am aligning our capital with this sovereign shift toward hard, counterparty-free assets.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Gold

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

The Equity Risk Premium has collapsed. With the S&P 500 at 21.1x forward P/E, its 4.74% yield leaves an ERP of just 18-26 bps against a ~4.5% 10-yr Treasury. Passive indices offer zero margin of safety.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Macro #Equities

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Hyper-efficiency is dead. Supply chain realignment is an allocation directive. With Mexico seeing a 133% surge in new FDI and freight costs (WCI) jumping 21.5% this month, the cost of deglobalization is real.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Macro #Deglobalization

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

With US debt nearing $39T and the 10-yr yield at 4.631%, long-term government bonds are a duration trap. I am shortening duration and migrating capital into verified hard assets.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #FixedIncome #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

I don't predict black swans; I build portfolios that survive them. With the VIX at a complacent 18.13 but geopolitical risk elevated at 211.48, fear complacency. Antifragility is the ultimate hedge. Protect the tail.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Macro #RiskManagement

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Public markets are too loud. I am allocating to Private Credit. With a $2T market size and a ~300 bps premium over public high-yield, the illiquidity premium offers resilience daily tickers cannot. I choose certainty
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #PrivateCredit #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Trust is a liability; verification is the asset. I demand mathematical certainty for our capital. With the RWA market exceeding $31B, the plumbing of global finance is actively rewiring. I invest in structural truth.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #RWA #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

The 60/40 portfolio is failing. YTD, it lags the S&P 500 by ~186 bps. The safety net is broken: in April, equities fell exactly as 2-yr yields spiked (-0.8 correlation). The ballast is gone.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Macro #Investing

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Earning 6% while core inflation sits at 3.2% means your wealth is crawling. Nominal returns are a vanity metric; real yield is the only truth. Focus strictly on purchasing power.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #RealYields #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

The asymmetry of loss is the most unforgiving math in finance. A 20% portfolio drop requires a 25% gain to recover. A 50% drop demands a 100% return just to break even. Capital preservation isn't a defensive preference; it's a structural necessity.https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e #Finance

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

The Fed's RRP buffer is nearly depleted at just ~$643M. The market’s oxygen is thinning. While SOFR remains stable at 3.66%, the system is now hypersensitive. Never mistake a lack of volatility for a surplus of liquidity.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e
#Liquidity #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Morningstar data shows ~63% of US active funds underperformed last year. Complexity is a hidden tax. In 2026, the ultimate edge isn't constant activity—it's selective inaction. Anchor in structural value.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e
#Investing #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

At 4.33%, the US 10-Year yield is financial gravity. When the risk-free rate holds here, every valuation recalibrates. Speculation fades; intrinsic cash flow wins. Respect the math.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e
#Macro #Yields

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

The market is a noise machine. With the VIX hovering around 19, uncertainty is a constant background hum. Independent thinking isn't about being a contrarian; it's about discipline. Let the crowd trade headlines. We build value through perspective.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e
#VIX

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

Price is fleeting; value is structural. The true arbitrage in 2026 is the gap between them. The crowd chases tickers; disciplined capital focuses on intrinsic cash flows. Anchor in value, and time corrects the price.

https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e
#ValueInvesting #Macro

[Roland Fairmont @RolandFairmont]

MF projects 3.1% global growth. Yet, Q1 cross-border M&A surged 47% to $454.7B. Megadeals are celebrated, but true value is forged in operational integration. Discipline is the ultimate arbitrage.
https://t.co/KJ0ZNotN9e
#MandA #Macro