@Direct_Cupdates Are you certain on the cup points for golf? From your numbers I believe you're assuming four teams tied for 5th, but this site shows three teams tied for 5th with Stanford in 8th due to win/loss/tie results. Small diff but could be important: https://t.co/j0xyfJs1lw
@jordanlong20@Direct_Cupdates Actually tied for 10th, which is only slightly better than 11th (pts split between 10 & 11). Only about 1.5 pts better than USC!
@Nellinose@Direct_Cupdates Oops - didn't expect NM to jump big with 15 pts. TX currently tied for 9th. Ark could jump us too after the 4x4, so tied for 10th, so splitting pts with 11. Just barely enough!
@Direct_Cupdates I don't see how it can be a diff of 2 pts. If they finished 2&3 instead of 1&2, their score would drop from 18 (10+8) to 14 (8+6).
@Direct_Cupdates Ran some numbers based on semifinal finish/final seedings (not perfect but it's all I have). I see GA at 55, USC at 47, A&M at 33, so a likely #2 for USC.
I only have TX with 21 points which is a hopeful 11th. This is gonna be tight. Single shifts or ties could make a big diff.
@texasembassy@Direct_Cupdates Well I didn't see that coming. IIRC, a tie for first splits the points which costs USC 5 (please check that). That helps, especially with TX men at 34. USC max now 1263.75.
If USC W take 1st, TX W need 4th. Other USC/TX combos for a TX cup: 2/11, 3/14. Any ties complicate.
@texasembassy@Direct_Cupdates A lot will depend on USC W. If they finish 2nd with TX M at 31, TX W can still clinch with 10th place (or 32/9 and 34/8). If USC W take 1st, TX W will need 4th to win the cup.
If USC W drop to 3rd, TX W can drop to 12th (assuming 31/1st in M for TX/USC).
@Direct_Cupdates USC's max is 1268.75 assuming a double nat. If TX men collapse (say 25th), TX could still clinch with women at 8. Also M/W 22/9, 21/10, 19/11, 18/12, 16/13. Ties could affect that.
A 1/2 finish for USC costs them 10 points, so a TX finish of 25/14 or 26/13 still clinches.
@Direct_Cupdates Just ran the numbers based on the updated T&F ranks. If TX finishes 2nd in Softball and as expected in T&F, their final is 1267.5, just below USC's max (assuming 1st in M&W T&F). It could come down to small diffs in T&F for Texas. A SB natty for UT would nearly clinch.
@Direct_Cupdates Did you already update Softball to a top 4 finish? I've got Texas with a 1259 assuming they don't blow the huge lead against K-State (and assuming 17/11 finish in M/W T&F). Here's my spreadsheet (I haven't added USC).
https://t.co/i3R2BWpAST
@Direct_Cupdates Stanford's tough fought battle in Softball ended in a loss which places them in a tie for 17th. Unless they can mange a top 16 finish in track & field, the best they can do is an expected national championship in W Golf and Rowing. Their puts their max back at 1247.5.
@Direct_Cupdates Here's a copy of my spreadsheet. Enter expected finish under Place. Actual is copied from Calc but can be overwritten in case of ties. Sorted sorts Actual plus the four required to calculate the Total. https://t.co/hE3mv4kWav
@Direct_Cupdates I disagree that Stanford's max is 1251.5. I've updated them to exiting Softball in the Super Regionals giving them 64 pts and taking them to 1251.5 (assuming 100 pts each for both W Golf and Row). But they could go further in SB, up to 100 pts (1287.5 max).