97% probability $SPY crashes at least 10% after June 15.
There's 4 massive reasons $SPY can't avoid it:
1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before $SPY crashed 78%.
2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.
3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market
Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops. $MU peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.
4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year
Midterm years average a 17% $SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw $SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.
♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share with you my $SPY target for the crash.
If you want to know our super list of 3 companies we will add when $SPY sells off and the option contracts:
COMMENT "explosion" and reshare this post! I'll share it with you. Remember you don't need to add $GOOG you can add $GGLL especially on down days.
You know what
I’m restarting the $100 to $10,000 challenge.
I want everyone to have a fair shot at this.
Last time it took me about 7 days, will try to do it faster this time.
If you want to follow along, RT + comment “join” below
Going to lock comments in 24 hours