Ronny Chokaa

Economist | Capital Markets Trader

[Toby @TomolaGroup]

In 2008, Femi Otedola controlled 93% of Nigeria’s diesel market.

He placed a $500 million order for one million tons of diesel when crude oil was at $147 per barrel.

While his diesel was still on the high seas, three things happened at once:

1. Oil prices crashed from $146 to $34
2. Naira was devalued from N120/$ to N167/$
3. The 2008 stock market crash hit

When the dust settled:

→ $480 million lost to oil price crash
→ $258 million lost to naira devaluation
→ $320 million lost to skyrocketing interest
→ $160 million lost to the stock crash

Total: $1.218 billion in debt.

The same banks that once sent “elegant ladies” to court him for deposits started sending hefty, barrel-chested men to his Ikoyi home at dawn.

He surrendered 184 flats. Filling stations. Tank farms in Apapa. A Bombardier private jet.

Today he chairs FBN Holdings. The man who lost it all built it all back.

Disaster turned into a comeback story.

[JB @JBTHEPLUG1]

Much to do, much to learn, much to be.

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

@Lifeof_AG01 You need to convince yourself

[P@ulo🍁 @Paul000__]

Ile ujinga iko hii Kenya😂😂

[Man a Baldman @bienaimesol]

I can sit at a table with global leaders and still remain fully African, fully critical, and fully myself. Presence is not submission.

[Duke of Kamulu @sleekowen]

Me passing by Sarit Centre on my way to Gikomba kubuy mandege

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

In the end. All we have is family.

[Kevin Kiarie Ruhiu @KelvinuhK]

Special Thanks To my Family for Standing with me Through Out The Journey and For Receiving me at the airport Today.

[Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth]

My daughter’s lemonade stand was struggling, so we pivoted to AI compute.

She’s been acquired by Microsoft for $1.2 billion.

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Dangote is finally winning

It’s “highly profitable,” said Alan Gelder, VP Wood Mackenzie. He assessed the facility’s gross margin was over $30 a barrel based on crude and product pricing for early April, compared with about $15 for refineries in Europe.

[Richard Huston @1788richard]

期近が売られるとはこういうことです。

[sophie @netcapgirl]

“mom how did we get so rich?”

“we pivoted from footwear to an ai infrastructure company”

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

@rastogras @MalcolmPlus @moneyacademyKE It has already been subsidized.

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

@MalcolmPlus @moneyacademyKE Diesel is usually more expensive to produce than petrol. Diesel is usually the more expensive fuel in many countries.

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

@AllanNjugi @NytoP2PMwangi 😂😂😂

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

5/
The lesson:
Monetary policy effects are
• Dynamic
• State-dependent
• Regime-sensitive
Static textbook intuition misses this.
Emerging markets are about credibility + context.

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

1/
Three counterintuitive findings from Kenya’s macro data analyzed 🧵
📈 GDP growth is highly persistent
📈 Higher policy rates correlate with higher short-run growth
📊 Growth is strongest in moderate inflation regimes

Here’s why this makes sense 👇

[Ronny Chokaa @RonnyChokaa]

4/
Third: growth peaks in mid-inflation regimes.
Not ultra-low inflation. Not high inflation.
Moderate, predictable inflation often coincides with:
• Stronger nominal income growth
• Healthier pricing power
• Manageable debt dynamics
Stability ≠ minimal inflation.