Roo Tradea

Philosophy of SciTech/Science/Business/Investments/RE/Fitness/Gardening/Parenthood.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.”

— Warren Buffett

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@MisterSpread 💯👏🏻

[MisterSpread @MisterSpread]

Aged well

$MSTR no close above $300 this year

Buy target $75 Q4-2026 / Q1-2027

Price > emotions/narratives 🫡

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@Truecrypto Agree!

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

I get the MSTR concern. I really do.

$STRC at 85 matters. The pref stack matters. $BTC getting cut in half matters. Nobody serious should hand-wave that away.

But some of the doom talk feels like it’s assuming Strategy has no emergency exit. That part seems off to me.

Maybe they’re morons. I don’t know. I’m not sitting in @saylor’s office. But the higher-probability answer is that they understand BTC can drop 50%+ and they have some version of a plan for it.

They could have sold $3-4B of BTC at 80k and almost nobody would have noticed until after the fact.

They could sell $3-4B now if they truly had to. OTC, phone calls, relationships, treasury desks, whatever. This is not some illiquid altcoin treasury where the door disappears when everyone runs for it.

That doesn’t mean selling BTC would be bullish. It probably damages the story. It probably hurts the premium. It probably makes MSTR less magical for a while.

But that’s very different from “they’re trapped and the whole thing melts.”

The real risk is not that Strategy has no lever to pull. The real risk is that pulling the lever changes how the market sees Strategy.

Are they still the unstoppable BTC accumulator? Or are they now a levered BTC vehicle that may have to sell coins in ugly markets to protect the stack? That is a real debate.

But a real balance-sheet problem is not the same thing as a reflexive death spiral and ugly options are not the same thing as no options.

Also, all of this assumes they’re actually in emergency mode. Maybe they are. I don’t know.

But there’s another possibility too, the public is modeling this like the only lever is “sell BTC or die,” while Strategy may have financing paths, timing plans, or backstops we simply can’t see yet.

That doesn’t mean everything is fine.

It just means the doom case is treating unknowns like confirmed failures.

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@TonySeverinoCMT Blue and yellow

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

Great summary

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

What's going on with $STRC? Let us explain:

$STRC is a product Michael Saylor's Strategy sells to raise cash. You pay $100 for a share, and they pay you back roughly 11.5% a year in cash. Think of it like a high-yield account, not a normal stock. They then use that cash to buy Bitcoin $BTC.

The deal only works if the price stays near $100. That's the promise: park your money here, collect the yield, and your $100 stays worth about $100.

Strategy keeps it near $100 using one lever: the dividend. If the price slips below $100, they raise the payout to attract buyers and lift it back up.

The reason Strategy cares so much? When $STRC sits at $100, Strategy can issue new shares and use the cash to buy more Bitcoin. That's a big part of how the whole machine is funded.

But below $100, the machine stalls. Every $STRC share carries a $100 obligation no matter what it sells for, so issuing at $90 means collecting $90 while still owing dividends on the full $100. They'd be taking on a dollar of obligation to raise ninety cents. So they stop issuing and wait for the price to climb back toward par.

And right now, that machine is breaking. $STRC hit a new low today at ~$82. Bitcoin has been weak, and Strategy's cash pile has dropped from $2.25B to around $1B .

Two problems hit at once: Below $100, Strategy stops selling new shares, so that funding source dries up. And the dividend still has to be paid in cash every couple of weeks no matter what. So they reached into the Bitcoin...

In late May, Saylor sold 32 BTC to cover obligations on $STRC. First bitcoin sale since 2022, and the first sign the system was being truly tested.

That sale is the spark... it told the market Strategy was tapping its bitcoin to make payments, confidence cracked, and buyers started demanding a higher yield to hold $STRC. The price slid, and the loop kicked in.

The loop summarized: Price drops, so they need a higher dividend payout to defend $100. A higher payout means more cash owed to investors. More cash owed means dipping into cash reserves or selling bitcoin. Selling bitcoin pushes its price down and erodes investor confidence in the entire structure. A lower bitcoin price pushes $STRC down again. The death spiral begins.

Each step makes the next one worse. That's why the market is watching $STRC so closely right now.
$MSTR $BTC

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

$STRC Market demanding a lot more yield to fund this Ponzi.

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@blackwidowbtc @TheBabylonBee Just an idiot would post that review. I bet he bought alts at the top too 🤣

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@GabySillerP 💯

[Gabriela Siller Pagaza @GabySillerP]

Si a Trump le disgustara tanto el T-MEC ya hubiera solicitado la salida de EEUU.

Lo demás es estrategia de negociación. Punto.

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@cvotrades 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@benjamincowen What the hell does that mean?

[₿lackwidow 🕷 @blackwidowbtc]

The most common bullish saying this downtrend was this: "alts haven't pumped so the cycle isn't over yet"

What's the truth? Altcoins are irrelevant to the cycle

Anyone trying to call the #Bitcoin cycle using altcoin metrics flag themselves as the degens trading low cap memes

They want their meme coins to pump and shill so they are always bullish

Alts are the side pieces

I am trading based on #Bitcoin

Your altcoin charts are nothing to me, sorry

[Cheds Trading @BigCheds]

$DXY back over critical $100 level

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

Well, looks like $BTC didn’t like Warsh 🤷🏻‍♂️
#Bitcoin

[Roo Tradea @RooTuitea]

@IncomeSharks Lol 💯

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

We've bottomed or topped on $VIX the last 4 Triple Witching Days (tomorrow is one). This year has been unusual and may continue the chaos but here's what it looks like. We either front ran the volatility or it's about to get really wild the next week.