Rory Taylor

Buy side | Macro | @WesternU MFE Alum | CFA | FRM | CAIA

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

S&P 500 margins going through the roof.

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

what a fantastic chart from @kevinmuir showing how unusual this earnings season has been

[Brad Bradford @BradMBradford]

If Mayor Chow had matched her speeches on housing with action, folks in Toronto might not be struggling to find a place to call home. But under her watch, housing starts last year fell to a 30-year low.

Toronto doesn’t have to accept that as good enough.

As Mayor, I’ll focus on this: getting to yes on building homes that you, your family, and the next generation can actually afford.

[Brad Bradford @BradMBradford]

I love Toronto and I know with strong leadership that gets the basics right, it has the potential to be the greatest city in the world.

I’m all in to make it happen.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up nearly 39% of the index, the highest concentration on record.

https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

IMF data, cited by Apollo’s Torsten Slok, shows that “the share of euros in global FX reserves is not going up and remains low at 20%” (please see chart below).
In other words, the euro has not benefited from concerns in some parts of the world about the dollar—concerns that have instead been reflected in growing central bank purchases of gold, which have helped push the precious metal to one record high after another.
#economy #markets #gold

[Marko Papic @Geo_papic]

🇨🇳has access to 1.x billion people for its entrepreneurs and scientists. But the 🇺🇸- thanks to its immigration policy and quality of life - has access to 8.2 billion!

Is that statement still true? Because it really comes down to that...

What comes down to that? Everything.

[Rory Taylor @RoryETaylor]

U.S. inflation is on the rise (2.9% yoy) while growth wavers, setting up a potential stagflationary environment (a very predictable outcome of tariffs).

This puts the Fed in a bind, forcing it to choose between its dual mandates. A lean towards growth risks further inflation.

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

Recession is a reflexive process where a contraction in employment feeds further weakness. That didn't happen last summer. Maybe it will happen now. I dont think so. But thats the only question that matters

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

The bear case has to be that tariffs don't get passed on because we are looking at a 5-7% decline in corporate profits. Not massive, but heavily concentrated on importing SMEs. That's surely the main risk to the labour market

[Marko Papic @Geo_papic]

This is THE question for stocks over the next three months.

[John Cochrane @JohnHCochrane]

Correlation is not causation. The Fed does not even pretend to control M2. There are no reserve requirements. Reserves are superabundant. Fed follows interest rate target not money supply. M2 is whatever people want it to be. MV=PQ yes, but describes how PQ and V determine M.

[Marko Papic @Geo_papic]

None of this is really profound. I suspect everyone knows this. But I am really just emphasizing here that France is a special case. Its profligacy is truly extraordinary. And given the pain its peers took to address their issues, it won't be able to hide in the crowd anymore.

[Rory Taylor @RoryETaylor]

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

The JOLTS measure of job openings fell in July. Looking to the next report, the real-time data from Indeed and LinkUp on job openings improved in August, hinting at a possible rebound next month. That said, we are clearly near the kink in the Beveridge curve.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

All time highs!

[Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 @JosephPolitano]

Data released today shows the Canadian economy is taking a major hit amidst the trade war, with GDP shrinking at a 1.6% annualized rate in the 2nd quarter

While consumption & public sector activity rose, the country saw the largest drop in net exports since early COVID

[Rory Taylor @RoryETaylor]

This reverses the dynamic of late 2023/early 2024, when strong employment numbers were accompanied by rising unemployment due to the soaring population growth rate.

[Rory Taylor @RoryETaylor]

The Canadian labour market is showing real signs of weakness as the impact of sector-specific tariffs work their way through.

Young people are being hit especially hard, as the employment decline in the month was concentrated among youth aged 15 to 24 (-34,000; -1.2%).

[Rory Taylor @RoryETaylor]

Overall, the unemployment rate held steady at 6.9% as the decline in jobs was matched by a decline in the labour force, aided by moderating population growth.