Royal Fool 🏛️

CEO + Co-Founder @templarprotocol 🏛️

Secret Lovechild of Diogenes and Plato

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

Peaceful Life Over Greed.

Sailor should ditch the coke, check into rehab, delete his chatGPT account, and then hodl Strategy's BTC + DCA from his personal funds when he's out.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@RoyalFamily

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

EAs may argue: "a big funder making thousands of uncorrelated grants is sampling the ensemble." True and that's the tell.

EV is correct exactly when bets are many, independent, and additive. It's catastrophic the moment they're few, correlated, or multiplicative.

That second regime is where longtermism lives. One civilization, one government policy, one AI lab, one timeline, absorbing barrier, payoffs you can't pool across worlds. The place EA leans hardest on "multiply" is the one place the multiplication breaks.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

Morals aside, Effective Altruism EV calculations are statistically flawed.

Expected value is an ensemble average aka the mean across parallel worlds. But you, your institution, and your civilization each run one trajectory through time. When value is multiplicative and ruin is absorbing, the time-average growth rate diverges from the ensemble mean, and maximizing EV systematically destroys what it claims to maximize.

Naive EV is to ethics what over-betting Kelly is to a bankroll: maximal in expectation, ruinous in time. EA optimizes expected good, but the time-average it actually experiences is what survives. "Shut up and multiply" multiplies the wrong average.

EAs should read more Taleb and Oleg Peters.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

Ironically, if $ZEC formally verifies the orchard pool and introduces fixes to guarantee the supply cap is respected, then it may become a harder asset than $BTC due to the the impact of the potential exchange/custodian accounting malfeasance increasing the de facto supply of BTC, not to mention paper claims against BTC in the derivatives market.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

Probably one of the best long term drivers of zcash:native growth is that bitcoin:native will be increasingly held on corporate, fund, government, and central bank balance sheets, and decreasingly held by individuals.

bitcoin:native the outsider asset is becoming the insider asset. zcash:native will be the new outsider asset.

Sovereign Individuals/Cypherpunk believers will be disillusioned as BTC morphs into a digital gold entrenched within "the system" BTC is supposed to fight against. These people won't be happy just diversifying into stocks, gold, or real estate. They want to feel something again. They will buy ZEC because they want to be a part of the rebellion against a broken system. BTC will likely remain technically Cypherpunk, but it's harder to say BTC is Cypherpunk or to feel excited about it in the same way when the marginal buyer is wearing a suit. ZEC will fulfill that desire for freedom.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@danheld Regardless of the semantics of fractional reserve vs counterfeit, custodial malfeasance can create de facto counterfeit BTC, not onchain, but in the total supply being bought and sold. FTX is 1 example. It can be done against, even with PoR bc there's no proof of liabilties.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

I'm not referring to exchanges lending the BTC, but the difference between fractional reserve and counterfeiting is purely semantic.

Fractional reserve is when a "legitimate" party creates IOUs. Counterfeit is when an "illegitimate" party creates IOUs.

For example, if Coinbase initiates a fractional reserve accounting system against cbBTC claims, and uses cbBTC in its internal accounting system in place of real BTC on its spot BTC market and for lending, the effect on BTC price suppression is the same as if the BTC network had an undiscovered bug that allowed for counterfeit BTC.

If a derivatives markets has 300-400x paper claims leverage ratio (as happens in the precious metals market where JP Morgan and others received large fines for market manipulation), is that so different than there being 300-400 counterfeit claims?

In normal conditions, both fractional reserve and counterfeit can be used to suppress price.

In thin liquidity conditions when participants loose faith in their ability to redeem for the "real" spot asset, counterfeit and fractional reserve converge to being identical.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@GamiLabs @StakeCapital @upshift_fi Congrats!

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@KyleSamani @zodl_app Maybe @txds_ has Zodl user data from surveys, but don't think Zodl collects much user data via app analytics

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@KyleSamani @zodl_app Don't have data to support, but the retail who will trust their funds to a mobile app wallet prob hasn't changed much in past few months. A desktop wallet w/ hw wallet support or retail Multisig w/ shielded support doesn't exist.

Also, idk % of shielded pool that's retail

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

BTC & Crypto has repeatedly proven itself to be more anti-fragile than tradfi. We've experienced devastating hacks, drawdowns, panics dozens of times and have come back stronger each time. This time will be no different for BTC, ZEC, and DeFi.

Believe in something.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@zkDragon FV is probably the best tool we have, but FV results can change depending on the underlying hardware.

Would be great if ZEC FVed the software implementation AND FVed on several common hardware + compiler setups

smthg like https://t.co/LlFSTfPZdi

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

The BTC maxis were right to be suspicious of the supply in the shielded pool, but if this exploit discovery results in a way to verifiably audit shielded ZEC supply, then a major source of investor concern will be addressed.

Rooting for the Zcash team!

[zooko🛡🦓🦓🦓 ⓩ @zooko]

https://t.co/v7BiOdzU9E

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@zodl_app When are you going to push the update to f-droid?

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@jswihart @TemplarProtocol Zypher Lending

Borrow against ZEC without trusting centralized intermediaries

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@robustus @Agzt_111 @zooko @TemplarProtocol for borrowing against ZEC.

3 code audits, formally verified, isolated markets, oracle redundancy, and more security features.

Happy to share more details via DM.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

Probably one of the best long term drivers of zcash:native growth is that bitcoin:native will be increasingly held on corporate, fund, government, and central bank balance sheets, and decreasingly held by individuals.

bitcoin:native the outsider asset is becoming the insider asset. zcash:native will be the new outsider asset.

Sovereign Individuals/Cypherpunk believers will be disillusioned as BTC morphs into a digital gold entrenched within "the system" BTC is supposed to fight against. These people won't be happy just diversifying into stocks, gold, or real estate. They want to feel something again. They will buy ZEC because they want to be a part of the rebellion against a broken system. BTC will likely remain technically Cypherpunk, but it's harder to say BTC is Cypherpunk or to feel excited about it in the same way when the marginal buyer is wearing a suit. ZEC will fulfill that desire for freedom.

[Royal Fool 🏛️ @RoyalF00l]

@txds_ https://t.co/qXZ1aRIa44