Royce C. Mendes

Economist/strategist | Former central banker | Opinions are my own

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@NickTimiraos @AdamPosen That’s the way we’ve always distinguished them when publishing our estimates/forecasts.

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@NickTimiraos @AdamPosen I think you were right to use estimate. I’ve always thought of an estimate as a measurement of something that already happened but is not yet known perfectly. A forecast is a prediction of something that has not happened yet.

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@conorsen The greatest steroid user.

[Mike Eppel @eppman]

In conversation with ⁦@RoyceCMendes⁩ about what to expect on Wednesday’s twin-bill of interest rate announcements for the ⁦@bankofcanada⁩ and U.S. Federal Reserve https://t.co/UoRTDuxQfg

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@BenRabidoux Households are always $XX away from insolvency. That’s why the unemployment rate is typically such a strong predictor of debt service.

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@tylermeredith Again, not trying to weigh on whether or not they are concerning.

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

Not trying weigh in on whether debt charges are concerning or not, but they must be assessed relative to GDP. The reason interest rates have fallen so much, so quickly is in large part because the outlook for GDP has darkened.

[Tyler Meredith @tylermeredith]

I’m sure the “debt charges are out of control” crowd narrative will update its priors.

I’m sure of it.

[Matt Lundy @mattlundy33]

New: Why unemployment is rising, but jobless benefits aren’t keeping pace https://t.co/0ArkQgYcKc

[Philip Smith 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @PhilSmith26]

The unemployment rate has been rising since October 2023. At the Canada level, however, the employment insurance beneficiaries rate has been flat. The rising gap between the two rates is most evident in Ontario, although it has also widened notably in Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan. #cdnecon

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@PhilSmith26 I don’t think you should be doing this in levels. Changes would make more sense to me.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Measured on a comparable basis (which mostly means excluding shelter in the United States), inflation over the last 12 months was 2.6% in the euro area and 2.0% in the United States.

[Omair Sharif @fcastofthemonth]

For anyone thinking the core CPI of 0.163% was an outlier, the Clev Fed median CPI will likely be around 0.174% (2.1% annz) and the 16% trimmed mean should be 0.14% (1.7% annz). The central tendency measures also showed modest inflation this month.

[Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi]

A dangerous situation. Effective sample sizes are already under strain because of rising nonresponse. Reliable economic data is something we should prioritize investing more in, not cutting.

[Philip Smith 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @PhilSmith26]

CPI and national accounts consumer and core consumer price indexes agree that inflation was under the BoC's 3% upper target band in March. The last time that happened was three years ago. #cdnecon

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@BrendonBernard_ Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t they use unpublished data for the current period to derive the population estimate?

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@BrendonBernard_ What impact do you think population growth is having on reported employment? Any issues to be aware of with the sampling weights? SEPH and LFS telling very different stories.

[Brendon Bernard @BrendonBernard_]

Canadian wage growth slowed in April, with the headline avg slipping from 5.1% to 4.7% y/y growth, slowest pace since last June.

A large portion of the still strong headline number reflects the types of jobs that are growing. Holding jobs mix constant, wages are up 3.3%.

[Kevin Carmichael @CarmichaelKevin]

How to handicap the timing of the BoC rate cut. My latest:

Carmichael: Read Macklem’s words too closely and you risk reading into them - The Logic https://t.co/fctVsIleYv

[Royce C. Mendes @RoyceCMendes]

@trevortombe It’s hard to see the BoC tapering given the lumpy maturity profile. Seems like it would be a binary decision for the program to continue or not. Either way, the central bank seems to have some runway now after getting CORRA under control and getting past the large April maturity.