RubberneckExpat

From Chicago to London to Dubai to Houston to Jeddah to Doha to Paris, an eternal expat with a geopolitical perspective...

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@BotTheWrongDip @TankerTrackers ship to ship transfers alone take 12 to 36 hours. That's why Oman and Iran are making an agreement.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@maverick_oi @BrettErickson28 Yea, when you win a war, you make territorial gains. It's literally their and Oman's territorial waters, it's literally not a bridge too far.

This is not Israel in South Lebanon, unsustainable. This is Iran's backyard.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@JohnSievert @ChuchiMaster @TankerTrackers 4.
Unfortunately it's not done, if Iran feels the pain, they'll escalate. They're keeping things on simmer and don't want to ruin the receptive attitude they see in GCC & Oman regarding their new scheme of the strait independent of the US = Iran's strategic objective.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@JohnSievert @ChuchiMaster @TankerTrackers 3.
Classic Trump desperate for finality: unsustainably maxin transits short term, exaggeratin em, posted it's 100% demined, claims we can see nuclear from space so we don't need a nuclear deal; he's clearly making a climactic narrative to say strait's open=we won, we're done.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@JohnSievert @ChuchiMaster @TankerTrackers 2.
Iran has 5k short range missiles, makin 100+/month, drones? Limitless. They're choosin not to escalate beyond hittin ships, they see the US not retaliatin as a tacit admission they're in control cause this is untenable. Why else wd Oman join Iran announcing a new agreement?

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@JohnSievert @ChuchiMaster @TankerTrackers Hormuz will always be vital: 60% of traffic is non-crude, 20% of all LNG needs it & can't be bypassed, economics will always favour tankers for crude, especially since GCC supplies Asia which require tankers anyway.

Inflation hurts the US more than it benefits oil execs.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@BrettErickson28 So foggy: it's clear now Trump ratchetted up escorts, transits, endless posts, "strait demined & open", setting this up as a climax ending the war on his part "I opened the strait, we won. Nuclear deal? we see Pick Axe from space, that's good enough".

Poor Trump, it ain't over.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@BrettErickson28 This is lookin more & more like a dignified "fuck it, we're done" moment for Trump. For Iran, it looks like routine strikes on ships going unanswered is a good enough admission they run the joint. Oman & Iran's announced scheme backs that up: everyone knows this is untenable.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@maverick_oi @BrettErickson28 Iran isn't making insane demands, that's Israel who sabotages anything short of regime collapse: whole world sees it.

Oman & Iran just announced an agreement. UAE shuttled cash, Saudi is preventing Trump from striking. It's too late. They won the war.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@JohnSievert @ChuchiMaster @TankerTrackers Yea, but these are operating 24/7 now cause Iran won't open the strait.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@GasBuddyGuy I think what happened is the war basically fizzled out, neither side wants to escalate.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@RepJeffries Resign..

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@SecScottBessent @POTUS Impressive: Bahrain is smaller than NYC's 5 boroughs and its GDP is $45B, 80% of its population are Shiites.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@greg_price11 Lol, even the right doesn't buy that.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@MichaelLaRosaDC @cenkuygur @CoryBooker @RepJeffries @AbdulElSayed Lol... Ur the bigots, ur the extremists, ur literally enabling a genocide, ur at the bottom my friend.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@P_dubya_S @yarbatman @SecScottBessent U made me chuckle: "I didn't steal ur money, I just took legal custody & created leverage to control ur behaviour".

"I didn't steal ur money, it's yours, but I decide when and how and on what you spend it, but it's still yours".

Thank god t

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@haaretzcom Are you sure? There's a lot of Americans who despise him.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@BrettErickson28 A lot of that is going to new Trump-class ships, US Navy has been keeping a massive distance from the strait, going around Africa to avoid the Houthis, that's the last thing I want to make more of at a time a single saturating strike will 100% hit a carrier.

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@P_dubya_S @yarbatman @SecScottBessent U can already see a form of such dynamic in Milei, Honduras, Brazil. U can't set it up in a way only a right-wing gov is viable.

We're repeatin the same mistakes but at a much faster pace. Like Iran: we got Abughraib on day 1, replaced Khomeini with Khomaini by week 3..

[RubberneckExpat @RubberneckExpat]

@P_dubya_S @yarbatman @SecScottBessent I'm saying u can get those antennas out without heavy handed US regime change operation. Otherwise the imperial blowback will effectuate the exact opposite outcome you're seeking.

We got Castro because you of your US-backed Batista. Repeating the same mistakes.