Ruben Nizard

Economist @coface, covering North America and the #crudeoil market. Formerly covering #Africa. Views expressed here are my own.
Tweets in English & French.

[Coface France @Coface_France]

Le risque #social et #politique est au plus haut en France et ailleurs selon notre Économiste @RubenNizard. Sur la dernière décennie, de nombreux événements ont illustré un #mécontentement grandissant au niveau international...

👉 Retrouvez l’article sur https://t.co/o5AJxXUpQn

[Coface Group @coface]

Beyond the repercussions of the war in 🇺🇦, global monetary tightening and multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of #stagflation (almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist).🧵👇

[Coface Group @coface]

#Ukraine: prospects for a rapid resolution of the war seem increasingly unlikely. As #sanctions against #Russia continue to pile up, a return to the pre-war situation seems illusory, even in the event of an early end to the conflict. More in our study: https://t.co/cHamIY8ok0

[Coface Group @coface]

In our latest #ExpressECO video, @RubenNizard examines the contents of the #UnitedStates' #infrastructure #investment package, and how this spending package could affect the economy: https://t.co/v9xrdl1cK0

[Coface Group @coface]

Has the global #retail industry returned to normal? That's the subject of our latest study, available for free here -> https://t.co/tLNuHUy8wb and also of this thread⏬

[Coface France @Coface_France]

Des bonnes nouvelles pour 2021 ? 🤞 Le plan de relance américain devrait avoir un impact positif sur le #commerce international cette année. Plus d’infos sur @AgefiFrance : https://t.co/6dHSCDIoUq (paywall)

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

I am happy to share with you @coface's latest focus on the U.S. trade deficit!
Our analysis notably suggests that the $1.9 trillion #AmericanRescuePlan, could contribute up to $56 billion to a record trade deficit.
https://t.co/YWCWgEgBPm

#trade #ARP #Biden #recovery

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

Suite à l'annonce de l'élection de @JoeBiden, les questions sont nombreuses pour connaître les positions du président-élu sur la relance, la fiscalité, la politique commerciale, ou l'environnement. Quelques éléments de réponse: https://t.co/YiKpHOCtRt

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

Joe Biden has pledged to restore a more multilateral approach, which could help improve relations in the coming months, but will not resolve long-standing trade issues. Tensions with China will persist, while new free trade agreements are unlikely to be adopted any time soon.

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

The European Commission's decision to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods as part of the dispute over subsidies to planemakers was a reminder yesterday that trade tensions will not disappear overnight after Joe Biden's election.
https://t.co/lKzlflJA2P

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

Join me for a #webinar about 2021 Thursday, November 5 from 11 AM-12:30 PM EST. I’ll be teaming up with @bdemourafernan1 and Patricia Krause to discuss #USElections2020, #Brexit and the latest on Latin America. You can sign up here: https://t.co/MZ3SbdAIbL

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

A quick explainer to make sure you're up to date before #US #Election Day on #November3!

[Coface Group @coface]

Ahead of the #US presidential #elections2020, @RubenNizard, Coface’s North America economist, takes a look at both candidates’ campaigns & the risks associated with the election. For more info on the #UnitedStates, check out:
⏺️ https://t.co/aCvOukTzzp
⏺️ https://t.co/Gzrv4ZSDyI

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

Interesting focus by @BrookingsInst on the resilience and recovery of regional #trade in East Africa, with Kenyan exports growing sharply in the last months. https://t.co/qo4X9H7BVR

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

@coface published its Barometer for Q3 2020 with updated forecasts and assessments. This quarter release also includes the annual update of our Political Risk Index, showing that the #US is particularly vulnerable to civil unrest as #Election2020 looms!
https://t.co/APAoT2B604

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

Data released this morning by the @BLS_gov showed brisk but slower progress in the recovery of the labor market in July. Progress is even slower beyond temporary furloughed employees. #Employment was still 8.4% lower than in February. #longroadtorecovery

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

One month after #cusma entered into force (on July 1st), #tariffs on Canadian alumin(i)um are back! #Canada had retaliated to punitive tariffs in 2018/19, it is likely to do so again.

[CBC News @CBCNews]

BREAKING: The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has implemented a tariff of 10 per cent on aluminum products imported from Canada. https://t.co/fKQX2ZwWyq

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

Based on a sample of listed companies, @coface estimates the share of #zombie firms was, at least, 6.4% at the end of 2019. The upward trend is likely to be exacerbated amid the #COVID19 pandemic.

For more information, check out our latest Coface Focus: https://t.co/ZCe52iH8th

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

Business bankruptcy in the US amid #COVID__19 has been trending downward. Our latest publication explains why this is a misleading development!

https://t.co/ZCe52iH8th

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

These downwardly revised GDP figures mean an increase in bankruptcies of more than 40% in North America by the end of 2021.

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

The Great Shutdown is coming to an end and activity is starting to pick up. But, containment measures will leave a legacy and Coface expects the recovery to be gradual.
https://t.co/mEzXj61hCx

[Ruben Nizard @RubenNizard]

In North America, we forecast the US GDP will fall by 5.6% and that of Canada by 6.5% in 2020. In 2021, GDP would recover by 3.3% and 4.5% respectively.