@bubbleboi That’s broadly the thesis. One of CPO’s key value propositions is eliminating long high-speed PCB traces by moving optical engines next to the ASIC. If CPO is delayed, signals still traverse the board to front-panel optics, extending demand for advanced PCBs
@bubbleboi 1Y 25-delta risk reversals capture more than invasion risk.TWD skew is also driven by export hedging flows,central bank intervention patterns, USD funding stress,and geopolitical uncertainty broadly. Attributing richness entirely to invasion tail risk is an identification problem
@bubbleboi Stripping out carry and proxying TWD vol via DXY/CNH/KRW assumes those instruments are free of Taiwan invasion risk. CNH in particular would be heavily affected by the same event, so the “residual” isn’t clean — it’s contaminated by correlated tail risk in the proxy basket.
@blknoiz06 Could be right but impossible to know until definitive outcome of tariffs are known and also when tax cuts and deregulation come in and the scale to which they come in
@blknoiz06 Could be right but impossible to know until definitive outcome of tariffs are known and also when tax cuts and deregulation come in and the scale to which they come in
@TheCryptoLark What is the point in these engagement seeking tweets? You are the ‘expert’ apparently, shouldn’t you be telling people which will make more money? Lark the Larp
@gideonheilpern2@LayahHeilpern 😂, goes on about how much bitcoin she has but can only sends less than 0.02 btc to her beloved brother on his birthday, such a larp
@biancoresearch@Base58Check The responses to your observations highlight a key current issue with crypto. Anything seen as slightly anti crypto is seen as an all out attack (even though you are merely stating what you see in the data and you clarified you are long)