@SelkirkCopper $SCMI.v $SCMI $SCMI.NE $SKRKF
Core Thesis
Selkirk Copper is not a typical junior copper developer.
The market is largely valuing Selkirk as an exploration/development company, while the underlying asset is better viewed as a historically operating copper-gold-silver mine being recapitalized and restarted at the beginning of what may be a structural copper shortage.
The key distinction is the resource has already proven it could operate at much lower metal prices.
From 2007–2023, the site produced:
554 million pounds of copper
260,000 ounces of gold
2.64 million ounces of silver
With a fully functioning mine, mill, camp, roads, power infrastructure, tailings facilities, water infrastructure, and export logistics chain.
The principal question is no longer:
"Can this become a mine?"
The principal question is:
"What is required to restart a mine that already operated successfully for 12-15 (or more) years?"
Why The Opportunity Exists
Most copper developers must:
Discover a deposit
Permit it
Build infrastructure
Construct a mill
Raise massive capital
Wait 7–15 years before production
Selkirk may avoid much of this process.
The existing 4,100 tpd mill and supporting infrastructure potentially allow production as early as 2028, creating a significant timing advantage versus many global copper projects that may not produce until the 2030-2035 at the earliest.
The infrastructure is valuable not because of its replacement cost alone, but because it dramatically accelerates future cash flow and reduces capital requirements.
The Bankruptcy Reset
The previous operator failed financially, not geologically.
The bankruptcy removed:
Wheaton precious metals stream
Legacy Sumitomo offtake agreement
Legacy capital structure burdens
This creates what is effectively a "New Minto" with:
Higher copper prices
Much higher gold prices
Much higher silver prices
Full exposure to precious metal byproducts
Improved financing flexibility
The old mine proved the geology.
The new structure may unlock the economics.
Why Precious Metals Matter
Recent management commentary suggests approximately 30%+ of project value may be derived from gold and silver.
This is critical because:
Gold and silver act as byproduct credits
Byproduct credits reduce effective copper production costs
Lower net costs improve margins and resilience
Historically much of this value was streamed away.
Today it may accrue directly to shareholders.
Key Catalysts
Updated Resource Estimate (MRE)
Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA)
Water Management Plan
Restart Capital Estimate
Feasibility Study
Potential Offtake Agreements
Potential Streaming Transactions
50,000m+ Phase 2 Drill Program
Most Important Variable
The single most important number in the upcoming PEA is likely not NPV.
It is:
Restart Capex.
Current working assumption:
~C$200M-ish
A restart capex figure near this level would reinforce the core "shortcut" thesis (production in 18-24 months vs. 7-15 years).
Primary Risks
Water management and permitting
Restart capex materially higher than expected
Mine life shorter than expected
Commodity price volatility
Execution risk during restart
Financing structure
Water / permitting and capex remain the most important unresolved diligence items.
Investment Conclusion
Selkirk's investment case is increasingly less about exploration success and more about the value of a shortcut.
The market appears to be valuing Selkirk primarily as a junior developer.
The bull case is that Selkirk is actually a partially completed copper producer with:
Existing infrastructure
Proven metallurgy
Proven logistics
Proven concentrate quality
Strong precious metal credits
First Nation ownership alignment
Potentially near-term production timing
If the upcoming PEA confirms manageable restart capex, acceptable water solutions, and a 12–15 year mine life, the market may begin valuing Selkirk less like an explorer and more like a future producer.
That valuation transition is where the largest rerating opportunity likely exists.
@SelkirkCopper $SCMI.v
Not sure who this guy is but love the $21 price target. LOL
Better than average analysis - just passing it along.
https://t.co/GDgHPW46yg
From Chat - so do your own DD. Keep in mind this is more than the current market cap AND they have $300M of infrastructure in place already (maybe worth $700M in current dollars). There is real evidence they may not need another equity raise .....
@SelkirkCopper $SCMI.v
Everyone should take this recent streaming deal between Wheaton and KGL (copper miner under development w 2027-28 production estimate) and paste it into Chat. You can ask to compare this recent agreement with the Minto Mine agreement. Then ask what a current value would be for Selkirk using this structure and current PM values .... be careful you might end up buying more. https://t.co/XKeG0isjuk
$SCMI.v on top of this interview which is awesome. I have 3 historical docs from Minto Metals that should be of interest to all of us - https://t.co/XU3L0G2PHJ
https://t.co/Zjh1K4kzM8
https://t.co/YujXGpVvhS
I would recommend running them all through Chat - you will be buying more stock soon if you do :-)
@SelkirkCopper Loads of good stuff in here including $200M cap ex ballpark for restart.
So run the numbers but at 4100 tons per day at current metal prices using ~31% being gold. You get a pretty nice annual run rate :)
And all up and running in two years.
$SCMI.v