Sean Roemer

DeFi & Crypto Analyst | Head of Investor Content @Yieldschoolysl | Love God, Love Others

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

BTC to $75k this weekend? Weekly cycle low looms (30-wk pattern since '22). Tax selling ends today, but gov’t shutdown fears bleed SPX (-1.4%) & BTC. Chop til May rate cuts—then $150-160k by July, $200k+ EOY. Chart says dip, then LONG. #BTC #Bitcoin

@APompliano @camelfinance

[Stacy Muur @stacy_muur]

I haven't seen the timeline be this bleak during my Web3 career.

So many people are capitulating.
Even Saylor broke his only principle not to sell any BTC.

I’m also seeing Bitcoin maxis start to worry about the quantum computing risk to crypto.

Let's be real here.
We're probably not getting another altseason or a new NFT summer.
That chapter is over.

We are, however, entering something called the "efficiency zone", where big companies like Coinbase, Sky, or Plasma start merging with classic TradFi.

Don't get me wrong.
I'm still buying BTC at these levels, tracking early-stage protocols, and advising emerging companies on strategies.

This is not a game-over.
It's a new chapter where crypto startups become TradFi startups, and TradFi startups use Web3's rails.

The industry has matured.

It's time we do the same and start adapting to these changes.

[Emperor Osmo 🐂 🎯 @Flowslikeosmo]

Here's your Crypto Watchlist for the Week:

$HYPE - Pulled back to -22.6% ATH after last week's local top debate played out. Still generating $75.3M in fees this month, up 27.1% MoM, with $60.1M returned to holders. The thesis hasn't changed.

$AAVE - Babylon BTC vault temp check still moving through governance. rsETH fully restored. -90.5% ATH.

$PENDLE - CLARITY Act July 4 signing target unchanged. Fixed-rate yield infrastructure, sPENDLE staking 20% to 57.9% since January. -83.3% ATH.

$ONDO - Same CLARITY Act trade at the infrastructure layer. -83.7% ATH.

$INJ - tokenized IPO access narrative up 9x on CT this week. First L1 to announce regulated tokenized assets, IPOs, and equities onchain.

$RAIL - Down to -52.5% ATH. ZEC dropped this week after a critical Orchard Pool counterfeiting bug was disclosed, present since 2022, with Arthur Hayes selling his entire position.

$ETHFI - 70K active cards, $2M in daily card spend, buybacks running daily, still priced as a restaking protocol at -96.5% ATH.

$RAIN - $686.2M unlock this week, 8.3% of float. Largest single unlock on this list by a wide margin. No protocol fundamentals to absorb it.

$ME (Magic Eden) - $10.2M unlock, 30.74% of float. Highest float impact on the list. Nearly a third of the circulating supply in one week.

$WLD - $19.2M unlock, 1.17% of float, and I still haven't seen a product update.

$PUMP - $15.1M unlock, 2.86% of float.

$TRUMP - $10.3M unlock, 2.66% of float. No protocol fundamentals to absorb it.

Macro - CPI Wednesday 8:30am ET is the main event. Last Friday's NFP came in 172K vs 80K expected, 10Y yield now at 4.71%, 30Y above 5%. Hot CPI print reprices rate cut expectations and hits risk assets directly. FOMC June 16-17 with Warsh presiding is the second read. Watch BTC at open Wednesday for the risk-on/risk-off signal.

~$858M in total supply unlocking this week. Last week was $345M.

What am I missing this week?

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

I love the cadence of this chart

Bitcoin % of Supply in Profit/Loss

As I said previously, you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before.

They just crossed.

Such a great chart for keeping people on the right side of the market in midterm years

[The DeFi Investor 🔎 @TheDeFinvestor]

Crypto Watchlist for the week ahead:

$ONDO - Ondo 24/7 RWA Perps will go live on June 9

$KNTQ - Kinetiq Launch, a platform enabling anyone to launch a HIP-3 DEX on Hyperliquid, launches on June 10

$STRK - Starknet will release STRK20, a mechanism enabling private DeFi, on June 9

$ETH - ETHConf, the largest Ethereum conference in America, starts on June 8

Macro events - SpaceX IPO will happen on June 12 + US CPI data will be released on June 10

$HYPE - Nansen will launch its own trading platform powered by Hyperliquid on June 9

$ENA - Ethena will announce its first growth initiative in partnership with Coinbase next week

$PYTH - Pyth Network teased a big announcement for June 10

If you enjoyed reading this, a like and a repost would be appreciated 🫡

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

Useful, if you’re in the HYPE ecosystem

[HL Eco @hl_eco]

By community request, 15 new dashboards are live on https://t.co/WaFSSsVwBa:

Price-to-Earnings: HYPE valued like a stock, its trailing P/E on one line next to Robinhood, Nasdaq, CME, ICE and Interactive Brokers.

HYPE Holders: how many wallets hold and stake HYPE, how fast that base is growing, and how concentrated the supply is across the top holders.

Daily Active Users: how many people actually trade on Hyperliquid, and how fast that number is growing.

Open-Interest Dominance: HL's share of total perp open interest over time, against Binance, Bybit, OKX, Bitget, HTX, Bitfinex, Kraken and Coinbase.

Builder Codes: cumulative volume curves, head-to-head builder comparisons, a 24h revenue leaderboard, and a searchable directory of every builder code platform.

ETF Buying Pressure: net inflows measured against float, HYPE beside BTC, ETH and SOL.

HIP-4: prediction-market growth by category, and a fee calculator against Polymarket and Kalshi.

Validator Decentralization: stake concentration by operator, and a world map of where the L1's nodes physically run.

Digital Asset Treasuries: unrealized P&L of HYPE treasury companies, now side-by-side in compare mode.

HYPE at the Market Cap of X: the price it implies if HYPE carried any large-cap's size.

Grayscale HYPG: the third HYPE spot ETF, now tracked.

Protocol-Specific Dashboards: dedicated deep-dives for HyperLend, Hyperbeat, Project X, and Liminal.

Light Mode.

And https://t.co/WaFSSsVwBa can now be installed as an app on your phone or desktop.

Hyperliquid.

[Tobias Reisner @reisnertobias]

At current pace HYPE burns 0.03% of circulating supply daily.

The urge to annualize that

[The DeFi Investor 🔎 @TheDeFinvestor]

Top DeFi projects by token buybacks:

@HyperliquidX ($HYPE) - $1,3 billion
@Aster_DEX ($ASTER) - $319 million
@Pumpfun ($PUMP) - $280 million
@Raydium ($RAY) - $214 million
@SkyMoney ($SKY) - $120 million
@JupiterExchange ($JUP) - $89 million
@AerodromeFi ($AERO) - $66 million

What I find interesting is that Hyperliquid, Aster, Pump Fun, and Aerodrome are less than 4 years old.

We are still early.

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

@Dadivan_sol @piggybank_fi It makes their unlock period look reasonable compared to the LAB unlock at least, sheesh…

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

The @piggybank_fi X team could have communicated this better than they did, bottom line. The average reader needs to be able to comprehend the post. Good job here @Dadivan_sol

[Dadivan.Sol @Dadivan_sol]

Quick explanation of the @piggybank_fi situation:

A month ago, PiggyBank put $100k into a discounted locked $LAB position and hedged it with shorts.

The trade thesis was simple: capture the discount between the locked tokens and market price.

Then $LAB went crazy.

Thin liquidity, wild price swings, and expensive funding made the hedge too costly to maintain, so the team closed the short.

They still hold the locked $LAB, which is worth $1.35M on paper today, but since it can't be sold until unlocks start on August 14, they're excluding it from NAV for now.

That's why vaults are showing drawdowns today.

Not a hack. Not bad debt.

A basis trade that got messy, with the final outcome still depending on what happens after unlock.

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

@cryptoupdate_io @EthanDeFi_ Nailed it

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

Uh oh…

[PiggyBank @piggybank_fi]

Dear Community,

- One month ago, PiggyBank got into a new position for $100k (~2% of the portfolio at the time), as part of the strategy’s scope of deploying into mid-cap basis trades.

- The strategy involved purchasing locked $LAB tokens at a significant discount through a Tier-1 OTC desk and hedging that exposure through perpetual shorts. During the holding period, $LAB experienced violent manipulation, including chaotic price movements on thin liquidity, and deeply negative funding rates.

- Maintaining the hedge became economically irrational and would have caused us to cross our risk thresholds. We therefore decided to close our short to cap the downside.

- In accounting terms, the total value of our $LAB locked position is $1.35m at current prices. However, due to the illiquid nature of this position, Piggybank is excluding it from the NAV until the first unlock on August 14. Even though this is an evolving situation that could still generate substantial returns, this is the fairest and most transparent way to let users manage their liquidity.

- Accordingly, today’s NAV will show a ~15% drawdown on the USDC vault, ~12% on SPYx and ~9% on JitoSOL.

- A detailed report will be published next week with next steps.

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

@TraderSteve_ The downside risk here is so much less than missing it for the potential upside. Risk/reward says buy and hold spot here. Now, leveraged trading that’s a whole other ballgame.

I agree with the you though, either way.

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

What a hot mess

[Apyx @apyx_fi]

🚨 Apyx Protocol Update

The team is working to deploy additional liquidity into secondary markets, we expect improved conditions within the next few hours.

For users in leveraged Morpho positions, we understand the real pressure you're under and are actively working on solutions to bring more liquidity into lending markets.

This week was a stress test for the protocol. We appreciate everyone who voiced concerns, both the constructive feedback and the tough questions. It matters and it doesn't go unnoticed.

We owe the community a transparent account of how the protocol performed and how we plan to come back stronger. We'll continue to communicate as liquidity improves and will be sharing proactive updates going forward.

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

@moranitrading Coming soon. 🫡

I see lower than the high 40s but I will not be picky.

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

Ones to watch

[Stacy Muur @stacy_muur]

DeFi yield trackers worth bookmarking ↓

→ https://t.co/DaIh9NmDu0
→ https://t.co/lJoAWsrRbO
→ https://t.co/KtRPmi4TOm
→ https://t.co/QUbFg7ELXz
→ https://t.co/jDxCP4tRsg
→ https://t.co/58GJGjbnx2

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

@TraderSteve_ Solid work

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

@CryptoJelleNL 58k ⌛️

[More Crypto Online @Morecryptoonl]

Bitcoin is still following the roadmap I laid out 14 months ago when I said:
"When the next bear market hits, it won't be the time to panic sell. It might be one of the best buying opportunities of the decade."

There is a lot of fear in the market right now.
Ironically, the same people who wanted to buy Bitcoin at $120,000 often lose interest when it trades 50% lower.
That is exactly why bear markets create opportunity.

[Sean Roemer @RunRoemer]

@SailorManCrypto Reason #43 why I follow you. Transparency and realism