Russell Gray

The Main Street Capitalist™

Empowering main street Investors to live free and prosper

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

Seems to me like Wall Street actually hopes for weakness on Main Street so the Fed has a reason to pump more air into their jumphouse.

https://t.co/bEbvFGuS2t

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@BrandonLuuMD The activity is the reward. I think by shifting the focus to a lesser prize, the motivation and therefore the engagement decreased. This is why people who work for money are often less happy and productive than those who work for love.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

One is currency. The other money. Main Street needs to know the difference. Save money.

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

The writing is on the wall.

#Gold 🔥🎯

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

A patriot concerned about tyranny and the loss of personal liberty asked if I'd ever seen a wolf pack take down a bull moose. He said there's no plan, no grand strategy. Every wolf just fights ... doing what it can. Whatever the big challenge, get moving. So I did and still am 30 years later.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

Yes. Slowly. And then suddenly.

[Peter H. Diamandis, MD @PeterDiamandis]

The thing nobody tells you about exponential change is that it feels like nothing is happening right up until the moment everything happens at once.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@gman5180 @aj_inapi Carrying your 45s

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@DrFrankTurek Genesis 6

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

Got gold?

[Doug Casey's International Man @intlmandotcom]

The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely—and erroneously—regarded as the risk-free rate of return.

The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its beating heart.

Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.

A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% when the war started. Now it is around 4.60%, an increase of roughly 63 basis points.

I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months—until it forces the Fed’s hand. At that point, the intervention will be sold as “stability,” but the mechanism will be familiar: suppress yields by debasing the currency.

At today’s debt levels, every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $3.9 billion in annual interest expense. So a 63 bps rise is not trivial—it translates to nearly $250 billion in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a 2025 budget deficit that was already around $1.8 trillion.

Higher yields mean the US government must pay tens or even hundreds of billions more in interest on its debt. At the same time, the global economy faces even greater added costs because Treasury rates serve as the benchmark for borrowing worldwide.

That is not an insignificant move. However, given all the headwinds I have discussed, I suspect the 10-year Treasury yield is headed much higher because investors will demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation. Further, if Hormuz remains closed, drastically higher oil prices are all but certain. Higher energy prices mean higher prices across the economy and higher official inflation rates, which means investors will demand still higher yields to compensate.

The problem is that interest on the federal debt is already over $1.2 trillion and is now the second-largest item in the budget. The US government cannot afford yields going much higher because the interest expense would push it toward bankruptcy.

I am not sure how—or even if—the US government can manage this situation. Something has to give, and we will not have to wait long to find out what.

The Iran war may prove to be more than another foreign policy disaster. It could be the trigger that exposes the fragility of the entire dollar-based financial system.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@truecorrective @ALEXNEWMAN_JOU @JohnFetterman Yes, but ... public schools are creatures of the state. Very difficult to penetrate and reform. I think home-school and charter schools ... working through parents rather than the educational bureaucracy is the higher probability path.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@JoshPhilipPhair @MarioNawfal Agree. There's more going on than meets the eye. Oil, Gold, USD, China. Probably all in the mix.

[StripMallGuy @realEstateTrent]

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but many real estate fortunes were helped along by one of the greatest tailwinds in history:

falling interest rates.

Be careful when judging track records.

Some of it is skill. Some of it is timing.

We may not get that same environment again.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@realEstateTrent Well said and very true.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@Biblicalman Keep your heart with all diligence, forgot of it spring the issues of life. Proverbs 4.23 I believe.

Don't follow. Seed and Weed.

Delight yourself in the Lord and He will give you the desires of your heart.

Psalm 37.4-5

Blessings

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@adamtaggart Try a long infrared sauna. Works for me. Feel better soon!

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@laralogan @GEdward_Griffin @GEdward_Griffin and me at the scene of the crime. One of my favorite memories with a great man and good friend. Thanks Ed for challenging and helping so many people think beyond the surface.

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

@GfhbJjhhn @adamtaggart https://t.co/4hMjERILcl

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

Trump says a reset is coming. Powell and Bessent call an emergency meeting. Is it really about AI? Or could there be a relation between these two announcements? @adamtaggart

[Russell Gray @RussellGray]

The output cant be fixed until the system, not the people or policies, are fixed. It's a fundamentally flawed system which requires every increasing debt. Rather than yell at the output or the pulling the levers we need to close attention to the inevitable replacement. That's where true tyranny might emerge.