Ryan Paganetti

Super Bowl-winning independent NFL analyst | Former @Eagles @Jaguars @Raiders | Follow for league-wide research, analytics & hidden edges in football strategy

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

1/ After more than a decade working for NFL teams in football analytics, coaching, and game-management roles, I’m officially launching my own football research and strategy platform.

I’ll be posting original football research here throughout the year — starting today — while also offering select consulting and team audit work. 🧵

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@Sherwood9876 yeah absolutely

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

Fewest first downs allowed per game in a season since 1999
(defensive play caller included)

13.44/gm — 2000 TEN — Gregg Williams
13.50/gm — 2000 BAL — Marvin Lewis
14.25/gm — 1999 TB — Monte Kiffin
14.25/gm — 2003 DAL — Mike Zimmer
14.25/gm — 2008 BAL — Rex Ryan
14.69/gm — 2004 DEN — Larry Coyer
14.75/gm — 2002 TB — Monte Kiffin
14.75/gm — 2006 BAL — Rex Ryan
14.81/gm — 2009 NYJ — Rex Ryan
14.88/gm — 2023 CLE — Jim Schwartz
15.00/gm — 2008 PIT — Dick LeBeau
15.06/gm — 2003 DEN — Larry Coyer
15.19/gm — 1999 BUF — Ted Cottrell
15.44/gm — 2003 BAL — Mike Nolan
15.44/gm — 2010 SD — Ron Rivera
15.50/gm — 1999 JAX — Dom Capers
15.50/gm — 2004 PIT — Dick LeBeau
15.50/gm — 2008 PHI — Jim Johnson
15.56/gm — 2003 TB — Monte Kiffin
15.56/gm — 2007 PIT — Dick LeBeau
15.69/gm — 2004 WAS — Gregg Williams
15.75/gm — 1999 MIA — George Hill
15.75/gm — 2000 BUF — Ted Cottrell
15.75/gm — 2000 JAX — Dom Capers
15.75/gm — 2000 PIT — Tim Lewis

The 2023 Browns were the only team in the last 15 years to crack the list.

An absurd amount of defensive royalty on here.

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@juss1700 They played good on D!

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

Fewest first downs allowed per game in a season over just the last 15 seasons
(defensive play caller included)

14.88/gm — 2023 CLE — Jim Schwartz
16.06/gm — 2017 JAX — Todd Wash
16.24/gm — 2025 HOU — Matt Burke / DeMeco Ryans
16.25/gm — 2017 MIN — Mike Zimmer
16.31/gm — 2019 NE — Steve Belichick
16.50/gm — 2011 PIT — Dick LeBeau
16.62/gm — 2017 DEN — Joe Woods
16.69/gm — 2011 SF — Vic Fangio
16.75/gm — 2011 JAX — Mel Tucker
16.76/gm — 2021 BUF — Leslie Frazier
16.76/gm — 2025 CLE — Jim Schwartz
16.76/gm — 2025 LAC — Jesse Minter
16.81/gm — 2011 BAL — Chuck Pagano
16.82/gm — 2022 WAS — Jack Del Rio
16.88/gm — 2011 HOU — Wade Phillips
16.88/gm — 2017 PIT — Mike Tomlin
16.94/gm — 2015 NYJ — Todd Bowles
17.00/gm — 2011 NYJ — Mike Pettine
17.00/gm — 2016 HOU — Romeo Crennel
17.00/gm — 2017 PHI — Jim Schwartz
17.06/gm — 2012 PIT — Dick LeBeau
17.06/gm — 2015 SEA — Kris Richard
17.12/gm — 2022 SF — DeMeco Ryans
17.12/gm — 2025 KC — Steve Spagnuolo
17.12/gm — 2025 SEA — Mike Macdonald

The 2023 Browns were the modern outlier.

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

Fewest first downs allowed per game in a season since 1999
(defensive play caller included)

13.44/gm — 2000 TEN — Gregg Williams
13.50/gm — 2000 BAL — Marvin Lewis
14.25/gm — 1999 TB — Monte Kiffin
14.25/gm — 2003 DAL — Mike Zimmer
14.25/gm — 2008 BAL — Rex Ryan
14.69/gm — 2004 DEN — Larry Coyer
14.75/gm — 2002 TB — Monte Kiffin
14.75/gm — 2006 BAL — Rex Ryan
14.81/gm — 2009 NYJ — Rex Ryan
14.88/gm — 2023 CLE — Jim Schwartz
15.00/gm — 2008 PIT — Dick LeBeau
15.06/gm — 2003 DEN — Larry Coyer
15.19/gm — 1999 BUF — Ted Cottrell
15.44/gm — 2003 BAL — Mike Nolan
15.44/gm — 2010 SD — Ron Rivera
15.50/gm — 1999 JAX — Dom Capers
15.50/gm — 2004 PIT — Dick LeBeau
15.50/gm — 2008 PHI — Jim Johnson
15.56/gm — 2003 TB — Monte Kiffin
15.56/gm — 2007 PIT — Dick LeBeau
15.69/gm — 2004 WAS — Gregg Williams
15.75/gm — 1999 MIA — George Hill
15.75/gm — 2000 BUF — Ted Cottrell
15.75/gm — 2000 JAX — Dom Capers
15.75/gm — 2000 PIT — Tim Lewis

The 2023 Browns were the only team in the last 15 years to crack the list.

An absurd amount of defensive royalty on here.

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@PFF nightmare to game plan against

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@_John_Shipley All great points.

The WR depth is so strong that they could suffer a significant injury there and not miss a beat.

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@BillClog501 Early 2000s AFC was a Warzone when it came to defenses

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

data via nflfastr

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@Lboyle_FF 4.47 per game

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

Most 20+ yard plays per game in a season since 1999
(play caller included)

6.19/gm — 2013 PHI — Chip Kelly
5.94/gm — 2001 STL — Mike Martz
5.94/gm — 2018 KC — Andy Reid
5.62/gm — 2011 CAR — Rob Chudzinski
5.56/gm — 2017 NO — Sean Payton
5.44/gm — 2000 STL — Mike Martz
5.31/gm — 2014 IND — Pep Hamilton
5.31/gm — 2019 TB — Byron Leftwich
5.25/gm — 2011 OAK — Hue Jackson
5.25/gm — 2011 NO — Pete Carmichael / Sean Payton
5.25/gm — 2011 PHI — Andy Reid
5.25/gm — 2016 ATL — Kyle Shanahan
5.19/gm — 2018 LA — Sean McVay
5.12/gm — 2000 DEN — Gary Kubiak
5.12/gm — 2011 SD — Norv Turner
5.06/gm — 2019 LA — Sean McVay
5.06/gm — 2023 SF — Kyle Shanahan
5.00/gm — 2021 TB — Byron Leftwich
5.00/gm — 2023 DET — Ben Johnson
5.00/gm — 2024 BAL — Todd Monken
5.00/gm — 2025 NE — Josh McDaniels
5.00/gm — 1999 MIN — Sherman Lewis
5.00/gm — 2010 NYG — Kevin Gilbride
5.00/gm — 2010 PHI — Andy Reid
5.00/gm — 2014 DEN — Adam Gase
5.00/gm — 2015 JAX — Greg Olson
5.00/gm — 2016 WAS — Sean McVay

The legend of @NickFoles lives on.

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

data via nflfastR

regular season only

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@TheLastFullback @AF_Football @WingOffNetwork maybe a package for Justin Fields this year?

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

According to Spotrac, Jaylen Brown has earned $235.2M in NBA career cash through the 2025-26 season.

That’s more than any non-QB in NFL history had earned through the 2025 NFL season.

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@CAFranchise Correct. Especially in college in high scoring conditions

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

The NFL punt is disappearing.

Punts per game per team:

2009: 4.78
2017: 4.75
2025: 3.58

From 2009 to 2017, punt volume was basically flat.
From 2017 to 2025, it dropped 25%.

Fourth-down aggression is rapidly changing the sport.

Just 13% of 2025 punts came in opposing territory — the lowest mark ever.

Interestingly, while field goal range has exploded, open-field punt net has barely moved over the last decade:

2015: 43.2
2025: 44.0

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@ShamsCharania Thanks for the great run Jaylen!!

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@EstablishTheRun @adamlevitan @notJDaigle OL being fully healthy could be huge. Was definitely correlated with the drop off in goal line sneaks because they were not down there as much

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@DhananiZain Don’t rule out Devonta blowing up for 1,600

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@RyanJ_Heath sitting in NFL gameplan meetings, one consistent message in the RZ is get the ball to your best players when things are extra tight down there

[Ryan Paganetti @RyanPaganetti]

@Ihartitz @MBFantasyLife @MatthewBerryTMR @RotoWire congrats and good luck!