Ryan Schnurr

Data Analyst @TPaction

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Tonight’s Arizona early ballot update added 22,969 ballots from Pinal, Yavapai, Coconino, Navajo, Apache and Graham counties. Republicans cast 44.1% of the new ballots, against 33.5% for Democrats. Yavapai came in at R +26.8 and Pinal at R +11.7

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Something to look out for, Pima county has returned 24,255 ballots, just 38% of the 63,917 it had at this point in 2022, while Maricopa is running ahead of its 2022 pace. Pima’s early ballots have leaned heavily Democratic (D +35.1 vs D +25.6 in 2022), so the statewide margin will move as Pima catches up. The trend to watch is the gap against 2022, which has narrowed from D +4.0 to D +2.6 on the same day.

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Tonight’s Arizona early ballot update added 22,969 ballots from Pinal, Yavapai, Coconino, Navajo, Apache and Graham counties. Republicans cast 44.1% of the new ballots, against 33.5% for Democrats. Yavapai came in at R +26.8 and Pinal at R +11.7

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Republican share of early returns is now above its 2022 path for the same day of early voting, and above the 37.1% Republicans finished with in 2022 early voting overall. Democratic share has slipped below its 2022 same-day mark of 40.4%.

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Gila County drop! 967 ballots, 54% of them from Republicans. Statewide, Republicans now make up 37.0% of Arizona’s early returns, ahead of their 36.5% share on the same day in 2022.

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Maricopa County, Day 10 of early voting: this morning’s update added 78,211 ballots, split almost evenly (D 30,502 / R 29,938). Republicans now trail by 2.7 points in early returns, a slightly smaller gap than the same day in 2022 (D +2.9).

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Still very early, but while 2022 wasn’t great for AZ Republicans at the top of the ticket, early 2026 returns look better than a simple ‘2022 was bad’ comparison indicates:

• A stronger candidate this cycle should mean less ticket-splitting than ‘22.

• Early returns show a higher R share (36.6% vs 36.0%) and a narrower Dem edge than ‘22 (+4.6 vs +4.8)-roughly the same 0.66% margin Hobbs won by.

• Matching and especially beating the prior midterm (when Republicans were the out-party) while now being the party in power is a solid structural sign.

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

With 156,415 early ballots returned in Arizona, the Republican share of returns (36.6%) is running just ahead of the same day in 2022 (36.0%).

The D advantage is also narrower than at this point in 2022: D +4.6 now versus D +4.8 then.

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

@del_corcoran @tylerbowyer Congrats on being slightly up (with a whopping 60k of early returns in) vs an election you lost by 5.5%

[Real Political Data @RealPData]

An interesting trend we’re seeing so far in early voting is it seems like Democrats are immediately exhausting their votes in the first few days, and immediately implode afterwards.

[Turning Point Action @TPAction]

Want to hear a real Horror Story? Katie Hobbs lost 250 Billion Gallons of Water. She's like a serial killer of deals.

Don't let her keep representing AZ!

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

@TonerousHyus Yep

[Vice President JD Vance @VP]

Vice President JD Vance breaks down the data:

"If you are working as an H-1B visa in the United States of America, you’re earning $20,000 less than an American citizen hired in the same position. If you were brought in by one of these foreign outsourcing firms, you’re making $48,000 less than an American citizen in a similar position. So I’m sure that everybody here understands the game that is being played. You bring in indentured servants from outside the country, you lay off American workers and, if you’re a corporation, you make a ton of money by under cutting the wages of American workers, replacing them with people who frankly shouldn’t be in the United States of America to begin with."

[Turning Point Action @TPAction]

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[Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz]

26% of young Republican men blame their problems on women.

66% of young Democratic women blame their problems on men.

🔗 https://t.co/zqSfSm3SrE

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

@Ben_Larrabee I will never get over the fact that this image exist

[Smirkley @Smirkley]

I checked with publicly available data.

States with more ICE arrests per capita have had weaker rent growth since Trump took office: r = −0.53 or −0.69 weighted by pop.

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

Never forget

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

#New General election poll - Iowa

🔵 Harris 47% (+3)
🔴 Trump 44%

2020 - 🔴 Trump +8

Ann Saltzer #A - 800 LV - 11/1

[Ryan Schnurr @RyanSchnurr_]

One of many reasons why @ZachLahn is the blueprint for GOP governors going forward.

[Lahn HQ @LahnHQ]

Zach Lahn will create a program that allows every kid who graduates from an Iowa high school to invest their income taxes into an account that can be used on a down payment for their first home:

"It sends a message that Iowa wants you to stay."