Ryan Maue

Meteorology + Climate | Look Up 🚀 | Florida State PhD | Go Blue Michigan | Cat 6 🐈 | 🌎 A.I. + Weather Maps @weathertrader

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Do the people sharing raw CFSv2 output for Niño 3.4 realize that seasonal forecasting requires bias or distribution correction?

+2.0°C (peak) still Super, but let's not get carried away with Hyper (+4°C) charts.

https://t.co/vUMiMIIECj

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Concise map showing typical El Niño wet/dry preciptation patterns from @climatehazards

https://t.co/4uNaPOFzrs

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Steyer won the endorsement of climate activists and environmentalists presumably because they are on his payroll.

This was particularly dishonest and ugly.

Becerra is not a zealot, and cares about unaffordability of California's green agenda.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Except for Governors Brown and Newsom, no one has done more damage to California than Tom Steyer.

His brilliant plan: tax A.I. tokens to create a sovereign wealth fund to fight climate change. 😬

https://t.co/oFvE7Nt1uv

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

In December 2025, Steyer underwent a "climate pivot" as Democrats "retreated from climate politics"

But that seems to have been a short-lived bout of sanity in California.

Back to the "old playbook"

https://t.co/U3bX6V8wmz

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Beautiful late-Spring day across the Eastern U.S. with mild temperatures in the 70s and 80s + low humidity.

Sunshine & a nice breeze thanks to Canadian origin trough. Enjoy!

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

@redsteeze This is the NFL equivalent of Jerry Jones pushing out Jimmy Johnson after back-to-back Super Bowls.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

60 Minutes when everyone has a 60 Seconds attention span.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

@haoxingdu @ClayMalott I'd be most interested in anomaly correlation and die off curves at 500 mb. That's the headline score for NWP last 30-years.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

I think of severe droughts during La Nina events, especially long lasting.

We'd have to think about monsoon failure in future with warmer world + (Super) El Nino ... does it still happen, or are we foreclosing that potential -- as compared to droughts from 19th Century related to La Nina.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Climate change isn't an external forcing or addition/multiplier to El Niño events.

The warmer baseline of 1°C since 1900 is the "current background state" within which El Niño is occurring.

The effects or impacts aren't "made worse"

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

@PaulRoundy1 I'd be more worried about La Nina in a warming world considering the "climate shock" that would occur with upwelling cold water rather than discharging the always warm "warm pool"

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

NHC took away ability to plot the line connecting the track points.

That's consistent with fact the track points are the only official forecast positions, and the trajectory/vector getting there is not.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

This is hyperbolic & arguably unhinged.

The onset of a natural climate cycle in the Pacific will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” said Secretary-General António Guterres.

https://t.co/5mc4l56eFV

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

This is a good way to demonstrate how attribution science goes astray.

You can't just remove 1°C from the Earth's climate in a linear manner to retrieve counterfactual statistics.

The Earth's atmosphere-ocean system warmer (or cooler) would have a different dynamical balance and distribution of weather events that makes apples to apples comparisons nearly impossible.

The evolution of El Niño, it's feedbacks, and impacts are based upon the initial conditions, which when changed create an entirely new reality or climate timeline.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Excitement building for our first Western Hemisphere tropical depression / storm of 2026.

Eastern Pacific Invest 90E --> 90% well way from land

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

🌡️In late May, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific reached El Niño territory for the first time in more than two years. That's a major flip from March's La Niña regime.

The warming pace is tracking with other strong El Niño years. Will 2026 live up to forecasts?

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

I'm a big fan of "Integrated Vapor Transport" for weather features other than "atmospheric rivers"

... formation of 2 tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific over the next 7-10 days near coast of Mexico/Central America.

IVT maximum on equatorward side (ECMWF AIFS 06z)

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Don't use NOAA's AI global models (AI-GFS/AI-GEFS)for anything important until they're upgraded to Version 2. They lose track of > 1°F of global temperature over 15-days.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

"Fewer than 5 per cent of UK homes have air conditioning, and developers say only a small proportion of new homes are being built with it."

Why? Crazy climate change related building regulations.

https://t.co/Qwnj9B6BMU

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Most states in the 🇺🇸 have >98% of homes with air conditioning. Many are over 99%.

Less than 5% in 🇬🇧 and about 25% in France 🇫🇷

About half of Europeans can't afford air conditioning even if they wanted it.

https://t.co/DbrRysvP4N