Sepanjang bulan Maret-Juli 2026, PT Infineon Technologies Batam mengekspor komponen semikonduktor penting ke Filipina, mulai dari Wafer, Integrated Circuit hingga Processor.
tutorial humbling experience:
tiap mulai merasa pinter, jangan lupa nonton video proses cara membuat microchips biar merasa masih banyak yang perlu dipelajari.
Hehe, seru banget WW3. Intense ya, favorit orang Indonesia ini pertanyaannya.
Jawaban paling sederhana: A Brave New World, it’s a multipolar order.
Seluruh arsitektur keamanan dunia paska WW2 yg dijamin poros adidaya, dan kemudian Amerika paska runtuhnya Sovyet sekarang berubah radikal.
Kalibrasi ulang kebijakan LN Amerika di Western Hemisphere (Meksiko, Kolombia, Venezuela, Cuba), friksi dengan negara NATO (Greenland, Ukraine), Perang Dagang (Tarif, Anggaran Pertahanan, Proteksionisme Eropa, rantai produksi mineral/energi global), rontoknya semua perangkat multilateral (PBB/ICC/ICJ di Gaza) dan klimaksnya: kegagalan Amerika melindungi pilar utama hegemoni Petrodolar di Timur Tengah dalam tiga tahun terakhir.
Semua melahirkan dunia baru tanpa ‘polisi’ — penjamin keamanan. Kegagalan Amerika melindungi kepentingan keamanan globalist yg memaksa negara kawasan lebih asertif.
Rusia di Eropa, memaksa EU bangun tanpa Amerika. Turki dan Pakistan di TimTeng, Saudi di Jazirah Arab, Mesir di Afrika Utara, Jepang di Pasifik dll.
Tanpa kehadiran kekuatan yg bisa memaksakan ketertiban umum, semua kekuatan mencari kesempatan melindungi kepentingannya. Friksi yg muncul kemudian keniscayaan dari dunia baru dg stakeholder baru.
Kurleb begitu imho.
The Frontier Market Behaviour.
Ada yg udah pesta duluan sebelum undangan dicetak. Asimetri informasi yg gak adil buat investor ritel.
Harga saham ULTJ dari senin - jumat siang kemaren udah naik dengan volume gede. Pas rilis berita resmi di bursa, ritel join the party, sementara pihak yg tau duluan udah kenyang makan minum.
Liat kejanggalannya:
11 Sep: Surat rencana aksi korporasi dikirim ke OJK
15 Sep: Harga & volume mendadak melonjak abnormal (+13%). BEI tanya "ada apa?", emiten jawab formalitas "tidak tau"
18 Sep (13:50 WIB): Keterbukaan info akuisisi Rp14,57T baru resmi rilis ke publik.
18 Sep (Puncak): Ritel HAKA sampai Rp2.190, sementara pihak yg tau duluan (sell on news) sampe harga kempes ke Rp2.060.
Kerja bang @IDX_BEI@ojkindonesia
- Lacak akun yang net buy gak wajar sebelum pengumuman
- Cari informasi bocor darimana, apa dari internal perusahaan? Apa dari kjpp/kap? Atau dari temen2 kalian sendiri
Itu UU P2SK jangan jadi pajangan doang. Perlindungan pasar modal itu buat ngelindungin investor ritel utamanya, bukan kelompok rampok.
Finally, Purbaya is reportedly being replaced by Suahasil Nazara.
From a market-confidence perspective, I see this as positive, although admittedly the bar left by Purbaya is very low.
Suahasil is not an unknown political appointment suddenly dropped into the Ministry of Finance. He is one of the most experienced fiscal technocrats inside the system, having served as Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency from 2015/16 until 2019 and Deputy Finance Minister since 2019, including years working alongside Sri Mulyani. Before government, he was an economics professor at the University of Indonesia, with graduate training at Cornell and the University of Illinois.
That precedent matters. He understands the APBN machinery, debt management, taxation, fiscal decentralization, subsidies, social protection and, importantly, how financial markets think about Indonesian fiscal credibility. He does not need six months to learn where the bodies are buried inside the budget because he has effectively been sitting inside the engine room for more than a decade.
His background also suggests a more conventional technocratic approach. As head of BKF and later deputy minister, Suahasil spent years working within the fiscal framework associated with Sri Mulyani, where the emphasis was generally on maintaining the deficit framework, preserving financing credibility and balancing growth objectives against fiscal sustainability. More recently he has continued stressing fiscal resilience, productivity-enhancing investment and the need to mobilize long-term capital without compromising budget stability.
That does not mean I suddenly become bullish on Indonesia’s fiscal outlook.
Suahasil inherits the same difficult arithmetic: expensive government programs, weak tax collection, rising subsidy exposure if oil remains elevated, Danantara commitments, distressed SOEs, and a bond market that has become much more sensitive to fiscal credibility.
And he cannot completely distance himself from everything that came before either. He has been Deputy Finance Minister throughout much of this period, so this is continuity with a more credible technocratic face, not a complete institutional reset.
But communication matters enormously for a finance minister.
Markets want somebody who understands that the rupiah, government bond yields and sovereign risk premium are not inconveniences to be talked away. They are prices telling policymakers what investors think about the credibility of policy.
That is where I think the change could matter most.
Purbaya frequently approached economic communication as if confidence itself could be manufactured through optimistic statements. Suahasil’s historical style has generally been more institutional and technocratic, which should reduce unnecessary policy noise and potentially rebuild some confidence with bond and currency investors.
So I would call this incrementally positive for Indonesian assets, especially the rupiah and government bonds, assuming the appointment is confirmed.
Not because Suahasil is some miracle worker.
Simply because Indonesia is moving back toward a familiar fiscal technocrat at a moment when credibility matters more than optimism.
And frankly, after Purbaya, clearing the bar is not particularly difficult.
CIRI-CIRI TRADER YANG SUDAH MATANG
1. Nggak perlu selalu benar
2. Nggak takut cut loss
3. Nggak mengejar profit besar
4. Fokus menjaga modal
5. Punya trading plan
6. Tahu kapan tidak trading
7. Bisa menerima loss
8. Tidak membiarkan emosi mengambil keputusan
Tujuannya bukan menang setiap trade.
Tapi tetap bertahan di market dalam jangka panjang.