Martin Rodgers, CFA

Analyst | Portfolio Manager | Investor

Track and review JSE and globally listed companies

Tweets not advice!

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TRUMP: WE'LL FILL OUR STRATEGIC RESERVES RIGHT TO THE TOP

that's over 400 million barrels

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Just started getting back into exercising and then the house got hit with the flu...

New born sleep schedule is rough but adding a sick toddler to the mix is next level!

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

@JohannBiermann1 Legend! Well done

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

@JohannBiermann1 Trying to get back in shape slowly after having the little one. Dankie, meneer!

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Tough one to get up for but we did it.

Enjoy your Sunday, everyone!

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

We keep going.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Not even the cats were out this morning.

Have a good day, everyone!

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Tweet of the day:

[JC Louw @jc_louw]

Those were "Rookie Numbers"...

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

SA Gold Producers - MTD total return (since 27 Feb 2026):

DRDGOLD -21%
Gold Fields -23%
Pan African Resources -23%
AngloGold Ashanti -25%
Harmony Gold -34%

Broad-based selloff across the sector. Harmony taking the heaviest beating - down a third in under a month.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

SA Gold Producers - Total returns since 31 Dec 2024:

1. Pan African Resources +277%
2. AngloGold Ashanti +272%
3. Gold Fields +197%
4. DRDGOLD +186%
5. Harmony Gold +59%

End of Feb was a good time to decrease exposure... in hindsight.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

SA Gold Producers - Total returns since 31 Dec 2024:

1. Pan African Resources +277%
2. AngloGold Ashanti +272%
3. Gold Fields +197%
4. DRDGOLD +186%
5. Harmony Gold +59%

End of Feb was a good time to decrease exposure... in hindsight.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Just the cats and me this morning.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

I asked Claude (Opus 4.6 Extended) to give the Top Value Picks across each GICS sector on the JSE.

Here is the list of 9 shares it says is the highest-conviction value opportunities based on a simple value screener.

Interesting list but definitely requires additional analysis.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Sun International $JSESUI - Analyst Snapshot

Consensus Rating: 4.33 (66.7% Buy | 33.3% Hold | 0% Sell)

Last Price: R40.51
12M Target: R53.00
Implied Upside: ~30.8%

Prescient Securities downgraded to Neutral today (TP R45.00), while Avior and Nedbank remain bullish at Outperform/Overweight with targets of R61.00 and R65.00 respectively.

LTM Return: +10.1%

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

SPAR $JSESPP implementing voluntary severance programme – part of a broader cost reset to match current trading conditions.

Retailers and retail services unaffected. This is a head office/group-level restructure to support future growth.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Woolworths $JSEWHL to acquire 100% of in2food Holdings

Cash-funded from existing resources and facilities.

Who is in2food?
- SA-based supplier of premium private label products across freshly prepared convenience food, fresh produce, and long-life categories, as well as several ambient and bakery products
- Revenue: R5bn+ per annum
- 8 world-class manufacturing facilities
- Produces 3.2 million+ packs per week
- Key supplier to Woolworths Foods for 30+ years
- Also serves food service, wholesale and export channels

Sellers include the founders and Old Mutual Private Equity. in2food's leadership team stays on to run it as a standalone business within Woolworths.

Transaction subject to competition authority approval.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Old Mutual FY2025: Ops up +13%, adj. earnings +24%, but missed consensus across the board.

Key figures:
• Results from ops: R9.82bn (+13% y/y) vs est. R9.95bn
• Adj. headline earnings: R8.26bn (+24% y/y) vs est. R8.31bn
• IFRS profit: R8.41bn (+9.6% y/y)
• DPS: 93c (+8% y/y) vs est. 97c
• Final div: 56c vs est. 60c
• RONAV: 15.2% (up from 12.7%)
• Solvency ratio: 162% (down from 182%)
• FUM: R1.64 trillion (+13%)

Value of new business collapsed -52% to R850m. VNB margin fell to 1.2% (from 2.5%) on weaker persistency assumptions. Well below target.

Positive highlights:
• Old Mutual Insure underwriting margin up to 6.8%
• R450m in cost savings already delivered; R2.5bn target for 2026
• R3bn share buyback underway (R0.7bn done)
• Discretionary capital nearly doubled to R6.1bn
• OM Bank tracking well ahead of Q2 launch

Analyst sentiment:
Consensus rating 2.56 – 33% buys, 56% sells
12M target: 1573c vs last price 1461c (+7.7%)
UBS most bullish at 1920c | Citi most bearish at 1243c

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Couple of sell-side analyst updates this morning:

- Super Group $JSESPG raised to Overweight at ABSA Securities; PT R21.10 (32% upside)
- Gold Fields $JSEGFI raised to Overweight at ABSA Securities; PT R1,045 (34% upside)
- OUTsurance $JSEOUT raised to Buy at Investec; PT R84 (16% upside)
- Clicks $JSECLS raised to Buy at Citi; PT R411 (41% upside)
- TFG $JSETFG cut to Sell at Citi; PT R71 (3% downside).

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

MTN Group FY2025 Results

• HEPS +1,058% to 1,274 cps - massive turnaround
• Service revenue +22.7% in CC to R218.5bn
• EBITDA margin up 5.4pp to 44.5% (CC)
• Net debt/EBITDA down to just 0.3x
• Dividend +45% to 500 cps
• 307.2m customers (+5.6%)
• Data revenue +36.4% | Fintech revenue +23.2%
• R3.6bn in efficiency savings

IHS acquisition announced. Fintech separation progressing in Ghana & Uganda. Ambition 2030 strategy pivots to three platforms. CMD ~June 2026.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

Sun International FY2025: HEPS +38.7% | Sunbet flying at +79.8% H2 income growth | Casino market share up to 46% despite market decline | Special dividend of 100 cps on top of 252 cps final | Net debt/EBITDA a comfortable 1.5x

New CEO Bengtsson unveiling 5-year value creation plan at Capital Markets Day today. 2026 trading off to a good start.

Share price up 7.4% on the open.

[Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor]

US natural gas jumped nearly 30% on Monday given increase in heating demand thanks to freezing weather sweeping across most of the US.

Feb contracts up more than 117% in 5 days, biggest gain going back to 1990.

Interesting!