Stephen Bronars

Partner at Edgeworth Economics, Washington DC, Ph.D. in Economics from University of Chicago, opinions are my own.

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

The BLS just released the OEWS for May 2025 showing their estimates of pay distributions by occupation and area cells. While some 90th percentiles are censored, the highest annual pay reported is $929,520 for the 90th percentile among the 70 CEOs in Champaign-Urbana.
Highest reported 90th percentile annual pay for CEOs by MSA:
Champaign-Urbana, IL $929,520
Rochester, NY $786,180
Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT $785,860
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA $772,850
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC $765,300

[Pork Tornado🇺🇸 @_porktornado]

@Jason Red next to black is a friend to Jack
Red next to yellow could kill a fellow

[Noah Williams @Bellmanequation]

Scenes from the current AEA/ASSA, where booking space has not caught up to current attendance levels.

[Kitty Committee @KittyCommitteeX]

I NEED YOUR HELP!!!‼️⚠️

This dog has a set behavioral euthanasia date. His original owner lied to our local humane society and said he was aggressive and untrainable.

Because of this, he is unable to be adopted out and needs a home ASAP!

As a certified canine behavior modification trainer through the AKC in Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin, I PROMISE YOU that this dog is perfectly fine and is safe to rehome.

Please, if anyone of you are looking for a dog, help me rehome him and save his life.

If I am able to provide a home for him before the start of November, he will be saved. Repost, comment, and like this post. Please reach out if you are interested.

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

On the @RichEisenShow when discussing Drake Maye, @markschlereth said "Sacks taken are more a quarterback driven statistic than they are an offensive line statistic" and throwing the ball away is better than taking a sack. If each QB sack is replaced with 1.5 incompletions (so that a sack is less valuable than throwing it away), these 5 QBs would see the biggest decline in their QB rating through 4 games: JJ McCarthy, Cam Ward, Carson Wentz, Jake Browning, Lamar Jackson. The 5 QBs taking the fewest sacks & the lowest decline in ratings are: Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Daniel Jones.

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

Some of the largest employment revisions announced today were for the Information and Leisure & Hospitality sectors. Rather than losing 19k jobs from Mar 2024 to Mar 2025 the Information sector lost 86k jobs - an annual decline of 2.93%. For Leisure & Hospitality the gains dropped from 196k to 20k jobs (an annual increase of just 0.12%).

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

-880k of today’s -911k jobs revision was for the private sector. Until this morning we thought that private sector employment increased by about 1.496 million (1.12%) between Mar 2024 and Mar 2025. With the revision private employment is +616k (0.46%). The CES survey overstated private sector job growth by 140% relative to QCEW.

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

My review of last week's BLS jobs report shows that much of the unusually large -258k payroll employment revision was due to a -109k revision to state and local government employment. We should also expect a large projected revision announced on Sept. 9 due to benchmarking to the QCEW. https://t.co/QRkRBsQRmE

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

Since 2000 limited-service restaurant employment in California declined year-over-year (4th QTR BLS establishment data) 3 times: during the Great Recession and COVID-19 lockdowns, and after enacting a $20 minimum wage targeting some of these restaurants. https://t.co/LpW0761bJT

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

From today's jobs report: Over past 10 years federal government employment, other than post office, grew from Jan. to Feb. by an average of 5/100 of 1%. This year federal employment fell by 1/3 of 1%. Relative to prior years that means 9,200 fewer federal jobs out of 2.4 million.

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

@TBPInvictus There are other reasonable benchmarks but I present 2: 1. if employment in limited service restaurants grew at same rate as rest of private sector in CA (wtd avg of other industries) or 2. if growth difference in CA in (1) was same as in all other states (wtd avg of states).

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

In my latest post I find that by September 2024, 6 months after the $20 minimum wage in California became effective for some limited-service restaurants, 9,600 to 19,300 jobs were lost in this industry. https://t.co/I5YAaK2BL6

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

From today's jobs report, year-over-year changes, based on 3-month avg. of non-seas. adj. figures, July-Sep. from the household survey:
Full-time employment -641k (-0.47%)
Part-time employment +759k (+2.86%)
All employment +118k (+0.07%)
Multiple job holders +424k (+5.29%)

[Joseph Brusuelas @joebrusuelas]

One of the silver linings in the downward revisions to the BLS establishment survey is that productivity will likely be revised higher (declines in employment & aggregate hours worked) from 2.7% y/y to 3.4% y/y. I think it’s not just post-pandemic catch up but rather the tip of a productivity boom that will be enhanced as AI is integrated into the production of goods & provision of services.

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

After revisions job growth 3/2023 to 3/2024 is skewed towards govt, part-time, & second jobs. Payroll survey private sector jobs +1.44M (+1.1%), govt jobs +695k (+3.0%). Household survey full-time emp -1.38M (-1.0%), part-time emp +2.00M (+7.3%) multiple job holders +500k (+6.1%)

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

Benchmark revision to CES today shows private sector job gains from March 2023 to March 2024 were overstated by 819k; reported as +2,263k but actual gains were +1,444k. Overstatement (819/1444) = 56.7%. 1.1 % job growth year over year reported as 1.7%. https://t.co/iAtJAUgpXE

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

Over past year full-time employment decreased by 1.065M, part-time employment increased by 1.268M and total emp. increased by only 203k. (3 month moving avg. from household survey.) In stark contrast to establishment employment +2.564M over past year (also 3 month moving avg.)

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

Employment figures in jobs report continue to look weak. Employment as share of adult population is down .35%, unemployment rate is up .74% year over year. Employed adults +58k and unemployed adults +1313k July 2023 to July 2024. (Not seas adj.)

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

1/2 of CA's limited-service restaurants & 1/3 of workers are directly impacted by $20 min wage. Labor costs for these workers will increase by $1 billion/yr. Industry costs will rise even more if pay increases for supervisors and/or in exempt businesses. https://t.co/E1GepQcjbA

[Stephen Bronars @SBronars]

Jobs report - household survey (CPS); Year over year comparison from June 2023 to June 2024 using seasonally unadjusted data:
Employment +215k
Part-time employment +1.773M
Full-time employment -1.559M
Employment of foreign-born +1.157M
Employment of persons born in U.S. -943k