Seth Frantzman

Middle East security analyst, Phd, author of #TheOctober7War bylines @Jerusalem_Post @BreakingDefense adjunct fellow @FDD Exec Dir @MidEast_Center Mainer

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

I am thrilled to announce the release of my new book, 'The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza.'
While I've covered numerous Gaza wars, this one has been harrowing and long. Awakened by Hamas rocket fire on October 7, 2023, I began covering the conflict from its very first day.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

Separating the civilians from Hamas so they have new governance and rights is the only way to remove Hamas, letting Hamas continue to control the lives of 2 million people will mean it can continue to recruit and ruin the lives of more generations

This is obvious and has always been obvious since the Hamas illegal takeover in 2007. The fact is that some agendas continue to want Hamas to remain and keep the civilians stuck in this horrid future without choices and endless war

[CasualtiesOfTheDay @Ayei_Eloheichem]

Gaza resident "A":

“Young people aged 18, 19, 20. These are new operatives, who carry Kalashnikovs and weapons, and stand, for example, at intersections,They wear civilian clothes and masks. Hamas recruits young teenagers who need money, for something like 600–700 shekels.”

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨Scoop: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will soon remove nuclear material stored at a clandestine site in Syria after the Trump administration reached understandings with Syria and Israel. My story on @axios
https://t.co/HbJwfVJC62

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

@OALD24 Great

[Omar Abu Layla @OALD24]

It was a great pleasure to join the Syrian Army on a helicopter flight, dropping flowers to the Syrian people.

Unlike the defunct Assad regime, which dropped barrel bombs and brought death, today we drop flowers, send our greetings, and celebrate with our people at the festival.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

@BeirutCalling @burke_jason Interesting

[David M. Witty @DavidMWitty1]

In Iraq, source in the Coordination Framework says an agreement has been reached to disarm rouge militias. The PMF (Hashd) Council will be the official body responsible for disarming the militias. (This is like putting the fox in charge of the hen house). https://t.co/0HPvZGaIcQ

[Alberto Miguel Fernandez @AlbertoMiguelF5]

"The most important personalities in Iran are cut from the same cloth, largely ideological 50-70 (-ish) year old Islamist males mostly not from Tehran whose formative experience was the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War."

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

Wonderful to see

[Ayub Nuri @ayubnuri]

Moments with Kurdish villagers on the banks of the Great Zab River west of Erbil

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

@yaakovkatz Wild

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

Beautiful

[Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول @FARED_ALHOR]

Syrian Arab Army helicopters drop roses over the ancient Damascus Citadel.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

A few other differences. In both those cases the people had citizenship in a country. It can be harder to remove a terrorist group when it not only controls the people but the people have no alternative government. In Gaza the people are trapped under Hamas with no other options. It’s doubly hard to disarm the group in this case. If people in N. ireland had also lacked civil rights and a government to vote for as an alternative and were instead stuck under rule by only the IRA, without a process that let them choose civilian governance institutions and enjoy rights it would have been much harder.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

@irishelt Great

[Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول @FARED_ALHOR]

BREAKING — Syrian Foreign Ministry:

📌 After a year and a half of negotiations and intensive discussions led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, the future of Russia’s two military bases in Hmeimim and Tartus has finally been settled through a memorandum of understanding outlining the next phase of relations between the two sides.

📌 Under the memorandum, the process of reorganizing the Russian presence along the Syrian coast will begin. The Syrian state will assume management of civilian facilities, notably Hmeimim Airport and the Fourth Commercial Berth at Tartus Port, allowing them to be gradually integrated into the civilian administration system.

📌 Regarding military bases and facilities, the two sides agreed to redefine their role, transforming them from military bases into joint training and rehabilitation centers under new arrangements designed to safeguard their mutual interests.

📌 The memorandum sets a timeframe of no more than three months to complete the transition, after which the new arrangements will come into effect.

📌 The move represents the most significant development since negotiations began approximately a year and a half ago, opening the door to a new phase in Syrian-Russian relations.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

In addition the man who did this felt he had the right and privilege to harass this family. He knew there would be no legal ramifications, no law enforcement, he has the privilege to do this wherever he wants. Why? Because authorities say he does. They send a message to men that it’s fine to do this. Tomorrow he will do it again and again. And if anyone resists his presence and his harassment they can be prosecuted. We all know this. And one day it ends in violence. And if anyone raises a finger against him, they are prosecuted.

We all know how the system is built.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

Important as Syria continues on its path that began after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024

[Qalaat Al Mudiq @QalaatAlMudiq]

Breaking.

The fate of the 2 Russian bases in #Syria has been decided.

A MoU has been signed to allow for the reorganization of the Russian presence in the country.

Damascus will assume management of civilian-oriented facilities, including Khemeimim Airport and the 4th commercial berth at Tartus port.

The military facilities will be converted into joint Syrian-Russian training centers.

The transition is expected to be completed within 3 months.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

No one has tried letting civilians leave the Hamas-run area to live a life free from Hamas with normal civilian governance; the kind of rights and freedoms and governance that you and I have.

Hamas only runs 30-40% of Gaza today. Yet two million civilians are still trapped under them. They aren’t allowed to leave. In Mosul the FIRST thing that was done was to let and assist civilians being able to leave Mosul, this ramped up in the summer of 2016 before the big operation kicked off.

This was key to removing ISIS. Terrorist groups survive by being able to hide among civilians. Separating civilians was successfully done in Mosul as a PRIORITY, and it worked. And then the civilians got a new government and freedoms.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

ISIS was defeated and almost completely disarmed by around 2019 in Iraq and most of Syria. It went from controlling a large area with some 50,000 or more fighters, tens of thousands of them foreign fighters, as well as having taken at least one Iraqi division’s worth of equipment in 2014…it was rolled back and completely defeated; in Mosul, which is a city and area around the size of Gaza with a similar population, ISIS was completely removed by 2017, and completely disarmed because all of its members were killed or removed from the field in that city and its environs.

The fact is that Hamas can be disarmed and defeated, using a method as was used with ISIS in Mosul. It’s true that one can’t be rid of all Hamas supporters, but it can be disarmed.

The fact is that Hamas is mostly disarmed in the West Bank, a success story of the PA and IDF.

There is a way. It’s a question of whether there is the will to do it and to let people in Gaza live free from Hamas. It worked in Mosul and Raqqa; it can work but the local people need rights and freedoms to be free from the extremists like happened in Mosul and Raqqa. Also journalists can travel to Mosul and Raqqa today.

[Ilan Goldenberg @ilangoldenberg]

There’s no example in history of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration working when one side insists on the other’s total surrender before taking any steps. This isn’t a recipe for “real disarmament.” It’s a recipe for perpetuating the stalemate in Gaza. Bibi knows it.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

It’s interesting to make this comparison regarding ISIS, because ISIS had probably twice the number of fighters that Hamas had, it had more light armored vehicles and it was up against forces that were mostly lightly armed in Syria and in Iraq it was facing the Iraqi Army and Peshmerga and PMF; as well as the Coalition that grew larger in 2015-2016.

Hamas by contrast was facing five or more IDF divisions, it was up against one of the most hi-tech Air Force’s in the world and one of the most advanced militaries; the huge firepower of the IDF.

Yet the plan to defeat Hamas was to have it move out of areas in Gaza with all the civilians moving with Hamas; and then the IDF conquered neighborhoods and then often left them in 2023-2024; sometimes the IDF conquered an area up to seven times, returning it each time to Hamas.

When the deal came in October 2025 all the civilians were still under Hamas control with no attempt at an alternative government, which basically ensures Hamas remains in power. Similar result at in all the wars before October 7.

The major difference is that in the war on ISIS the concept was to remove ISIS completely and free the civilians. In both cases the extremists committed genocide and kidnapping. ISIS kidnapped thousands of people, mostly young women, while Hamas kidnapped 251.

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

And two million civilians continue to be trapped under Hamas rule without being allowed to move to the rest of Gaza or form their own government or have alternative governance yet; helping them receive basic rights to not have to live under Hamas forever seems to be key to removing Hamas. One would think that after October 7 this would be a priority

[Clash Report @clashreport]

After 18 months of negotiations, Syria and Russia have reached an agreement on the future of the Russian presence at Hmeimim and Tartous.

Under the memorandum, civilian facilities—including Hmeimim Airport and Tartous Port’s fourth commercial berth—will gradually return to Syrian state management.

Military facilities will be restructured into joint Syrian-Russian training centers rather than operating as traditional military bases.

The transition is expected to be completed within three months.

Source: SANA