Sandeep Godolo

A newbe Trader. A lot to learn

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@Intel_Jackal What nonsense. If you’re going to spread false news, at least make it sound logical.

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

https://t.co/0hR8Pmdtdf

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

Aramco CEO’s Bombshell Warning Exposes the Fragile State of Global Energy Markets

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Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser didn’t mince words during the company’s first-quarter earnings call on Monday. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz - now stretching into its third month amid the U.S.-Iran conflict - has already cost the global oil market roughly 1 billion barrels of supply. And unless the vital chokepoint reopens immediately, full market normalization could be pushed all the way to 2027.
This analysis is based on the Saudi Aramco Q1 2026 Earnings Call held on Monday, May 11, 2026. CEO Amin Nasser’s remarks outline a paradigm shift in global energy security due to the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf.

Investor Briefing: The "Hormuz Crisis" and Global Energy Rebalancing

1. The Scale of Disruption: "Largest Shock in History"
Nasser confirmed that the global energy market has already lost 1 billion barrels of supply over the three months of the Strait of Hormuz closure. To put this in perspective, this is the equivalent of roughly 10 days of total global consumption completely erased from the system.
Weekly Impact: Every additional week the Strait remains closed puts another 100 million barrels at risk.
The "Hormuz Lag": Even if the chokepoint reopened today, the market would not normalize immediately. Nasser warned that if the closure persists for "more than a few weeks from today," the market will not see full rebalancing until 2027.
2. Structural Damage vs. Physical Flow
A key takeaway for investors is that a "peace deal" or "reopening" will not be an overnight fix. Nasser identified four structural "lags" that will delay recovery:
Upstream Recovery: Restarting "shut-in" fields that have been offline due to export constraints can take months to reach previous pressure and output levels.
Infrastructure Deficit: Reports of damaged infrastructure during the conflict require significant CAPEX and time for repairs.
Logistical Knot: Tanker fleets are currently out of position or tied up in alternative, longer routes; repositioning them to the Gulf will take a full shipping cycle.
Inventory Depletion: Global onshore inventories are being drawn down at an "accelerating" rate. Nasser noted that gasoline and jet fuel stocks are reaching critically low levels ahead of the summer peak demand season.
3. The Fallacy of "Total" Reserves
Nasser issued a specific warning to energy traders: Global inventory numbers are misleading. * Much of the "reported" inventory is actually "dead storage" or "operational minimums" (oil locked in pipelines and tank bottoms) that cannot be drawn upon.
The actual accessible buffer is far smaller than the headline numbers suggest, meaning the market is physically tighter than current pricing may reflect.
4. Aramco’s Strategic Pivot: The Red Sea "Lifeline"
Aramco is aggressively de-risking its export model to bypass the Persian Gulf:
East-West Pipeline: The company successfully ramped this to its 7.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) maximum capacity, moving crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Future CAPEX: Nasser announced plans to expand Yanbu’s export capacity beyond 5 mbpd to further decouple Saudi exports from the Strait of Hormuz.
5. Financial Resilience Amid Crisis
Despite the chaos, Aramco’s Q1 financials demonstrated massive "crisis-alpha":
Net Income: $33.6 billion (up 26% YoY), beating analyst estimates.
Realized Price: $76.90/bbl (vs. $64.10 in Q4 2025).
Dividend: Maintained at $21.9 billion, signaling commitment to shareholder returns even as the gearing ratio ticked up from 3.8% to 4.8%.
Investment Implications
Extended High-Volatility Regime: With normalization pushed to 2027, "lower-for-longer" is officially dead. Expect a "higher-for-longer" price environment with extreme volatility tied to ceasefire rumors.
Refining Margin Spike: Nasser specifically highlighted the depletion of refined products (gasoline/jet fuel). Expect "crack spreads" to widen significantly as the crisis shifts from a crude supply issue to a fuel availability crisis.
Demand Rationing: High prices are no longer just a possibility; they are actively being used to force demand down (rationing) in Asian markets. This may lead to a slowdown in global industrial output.
Energy Security Premium: Companies with "resilient" logistics (like Aramco’s pipeline bypass) will command a premium over producers stuck behind the Hormuz blockade.
Bottom Line: The "1 billion barrel hole" in global supply is too deep to be filled by strategic reserve releases alone. Investors should prepare for a multi-year recovery cycle rather than a "V-shaped" return to normalcy.

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

Check out my #SPX analysis on @TradingView: https://t.co/0rXS41i8gk

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

Why blame chennai customs , when corruption is in every port sea or air

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

Indian custom are definitely very corrupt . Modiji please clean up customs

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@RaghavS14368905 @UPRERA Raghav any update. I have invested in Godrej golf links greater noida

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@dilshad_akhtar1 Not mytred but killed in action
Mytr my ass. Yah yah sinwar was nothing but a murderer who got what he deserved

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@SJosephBurns D

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@SahniNikhil @CeoNoida @UPRERAofficial @GodrejProp Any update on this project. I have booked flats but no news. Any association has formed for this project

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@Jake__Wujastyk @tradingview Pick me

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@MOSSADil India supports Israel right to respect to eliminate terrorism

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@prathakbatohi There are unverified rumours that Pakistan has sold 2-3 nuclear warheads to Quatar or Iran . Could they be trying to detecting these nuclear war heads in Karachi ? The rumour is the price paid to bankrupt Pakistan is 3.5 billion. Can some one verify these rumours?

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@TmarketL Sell

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@NaPewnoNiePLrc @Logical_Girll @zadakhabar Israel stood with India in the Kargil war which we will never forget. Perhaps you will never understand wr went thru the 26th Nov Mumbai attack. Look it up on you tube

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@IamChandanCM Thank you for reminding us to be always be on the alert

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@_Hareem_Shah Why do you spread fake videos?

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@RichardMoglen @traderlion Minirwini

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@Logical_Girll @zadakhabar India wishes the best for the people of Israel . We are sympathetic to their need for a permanent solution to their problems. It reminds us of the Mumbai 11/26 terrorist attacks from Pakistan terrorist.

[Sandeep Godolo @SGodolo]

@erbmjha India stands with Israel