SIQX

Situational IQ Index. Behavioral intelligence for MLB. Daily picks + weekly insights. Stephen Bridwell | Sr. Scientist | UC Berkeley

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick -- July 10, 2026

Kansas City Royals +128

Behavioral edge: +7.0 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 43.9%

Bullpen game -- pitching gated on bullpen quality

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick -- July 09, 2026

Kansas City Royals +128

Behavioral edge: +10.8 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 43.9%

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick -- July 08, 2026

Kansas City Royals +124

Behavioral edge: +10.8 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 44.6%

Bullpen game -- pitching gated on bullpen quality

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick -- July 07, 2026

Cincinnati Reds +139

Behavioral edge: +6.9 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 41.8%

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick -- July 05, 2026

Kansas City Royals +116

Behavioral edge: +12.4 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 46.3%

Bullpen game -- pitching gated on bullpen quality

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick -- July 02, 2026

Cleveland Guardians +100

Behavioral edge: +5.2 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 50.0%

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 30, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals +132

Behavioral edge: +8.7 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied: 43.1%

St. Louis's hitters out-rate Atlanta's on plate-decision quality by more than the +132 price reflects. The bats are the edge.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 26, 2026

Kansas City Royals +114

Behavioral edge: +12.6 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied: 46.7%

KC's hitters out-rate Chicago's on plate-decision quality by more than the +114 price reflects. The bats are the edge here.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

Great board — that's results. Here's the same 10 graded on plate-decision quality instead.

Alvarez holds #1 (elite on both). Soto and Rice climb. But the power/tools bats slide — Buxton, Crow-Armstrong, Carroll produce on contact damage, not at-bat process.

Different question, different board.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Team Rankings — June 25

Offense and pitching, ranked on command and plate-decision process — not ERA, not record.

The gap between process and results is where the model lives. Best results in a category and best process aren't always the same team, and that's usually a regression tell.

OFFENSE: Brewers, Cubs, Royals, Dodgers, Rays
PITCHING: Brewers, Dodgers, Mariners, Phillies, Braves

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 24, 2026

Washington Nationals +114

Behavioral edge: +5.5 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 46.7%

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 23, 2026

Chicago Cubs +102

Behavioral edge: +6.7 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 49.5%

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 21, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers +114

Behavioral edge: +12.6 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 46.7%

Starter edge: +12.9 PSIQX
Bullpen edge: −9.8 PSIQX

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 20, 2026

Cleveland Guardians +116

Behavioral edge: +10.4 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 46.3%

Starter edge: −0.2 PSIQX
Bullpen edge: +6.2 PSIQX

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 17, 2026

Kansas City Royals +108

Behavioral edge: +5.0 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 48.1%

Starter edge: +11.0 PSIQX
Bullpen edge: +4.7 PSIQX

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 16, 2026

Kansas City Royals +104

Behavioral edge: +5.1 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 49.0%

Starter edge: −2.8 PSIQX
Bullpen edge: +4.4 PSIQX

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick — June 14, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers +110

Behavioral edge: +10.1 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 47.6%

Starter edge: +0.6 PSIQX
Bullpen edge: −1.5 PSIQX

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

Contreras is right to be glad he doesn't have to plan for him — but it's not the 105. SIQX grades what a pitcher *forces*, and Miz is #5 in MLB (PSIQX 83.7): zone-whiff 98th pct, contact-against 97–99th, two-strike put-away 98th. The radar gun gets the clicks; the swing decisions are why it actually plays.

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

SIQX Pick -- June 10, 2026

Kansas City Royals +108

Behavioral edge: +7.4 SIQX points (10 components)
Market implied probability: 48.1%

Starter edge: -8.2 PSIQX
Bullpen edge: +1.3 PSIQX

The behavioral profile exceeds what the market has priced in.

@SIQXindex

[SIQX @SIQXindex]

First SIQX play in a week.

The board gave nothing the other six days, so we posted nothing — no edge, no play.

Today it cleared one:
Detroit Tigers +104 (vs Seattle)
+8.2 hitter edge at a 49.0% implied price, with the pitching close to even.

@SIQXindex