It’s weird how no one in the Trump admin seems to care who’s making these insider bets on the markets. No investigation, no outrage. It’s almost like this administration is completely full of shit about law and order.
Dear Media:
Blindly quoting the President without fact-checking or context is just misinformation with a press pass.
We don’t need stenographers; we need journalists. Do your job.
my favorite Bible story is probably the one where Jesus starts an unprovoked, unnecessary and illegal war, blows up a building full of schoolgirls, destabilizes the world's economy, tells the Pope to go fuck himself, and then jets off for a long weekend of golf at Galilee-a-Lago
$760M short on oil. Placed 20 minutes before the Hormuz announcement.
This is the 3rd time.
March 23: $500M short — 15 minutes before Trump delayed Iran strikes. Oil dropped 15%.
April 7: $950M short — hours before the US-Iran ceasefire.
April 17: $760M short — 20 minutes before Hormuz declared open.
The CFTC is investigating.
The ‘peace trade’ was sold to retail. Someone else got out first.
Who knew?
Congrats on “opening” a strait that was open six weeks ago, and all it cost was at least 13 dead service members, thousands of dead Iranian civilians, tens of billions in taxpayer dollars, our loss in global standing, and the Iranian regime’s increase in power. Phenomenal work.
Todd Blanche was Trump's personal fixer, and he was also responsible for Ghislaine Maxwell's transfer to a minimum security girl's summer camp. This is the Epstein Administration. Wake up you dipshits
SPX rallied 2.9% today. This marks the first time in 90 trading days that SPX finished at least 2.85% above the prior close.
Historically, these outsized upside shocks have tended to precede higher volatility rather than sustained momentum. Looking back to 2006, similar occurrences have generally been followed by choppier price action and weaker risk‑adjusted returns over the subsequent one to two weeks.
What stands out in the data:
1) Near term returns skew negative. Average performance is negative across every horizon from 1 to 10 days, indicating poor follow through after the initial surge.
2) Weakness tends to deepen with time. Drawdowns are modest early but deteriorate meaningfully after Day 4, with the Days 6-8 window showing the worst combination of win rate and average return.
3) Volatility increases with a lag. The largest downside outcomes do not occur immediately; historical worst‑cases widen from single digit declines early on to roughly ‑20% or more within two weeks.
4) Upside tails are narrow. Strong positive follow through beyond one week is rare and largely driven by a single historical episode.
5) Even at horizons where outcomes are positive roughly 50% of the time, average returns remain firmly negative, implying losses have historically outweighed gains.
Bottom line:
Large upside shock days have tended to mark inflection points within downtrends rather than new trend accelerations. Price action becomes choppier and risk skews to the downside. History argues for expecting higher volatility and poorer risk-adjusted returns, not a smooth continuation higher.
Having blown up the world economy with the war he claims to have won, is winning, needs help to win, and needs no help to win, Donald Trump is now heading towards Palm Beach for yet another well deserved, tax payer funded, relaxing day of golfing.
The Strait of Hormuz not just about oil...
A secondary but critical risk is the severe disruption to global fertilizer supplies. Roughly one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade, including key nitrogen-based products like urea, normally passes through the Strait.
With Gulf exports stalled, production halts in dependent regions, and prices spiking 30–40% (urea up sharply to ~$700+/ton), farmers face shortages just as Northern Hemisphere planting season ramps up.
This sets up a potential double hit: energy shortages/inflation combined with food price spikes and possible shortages downstream, as reduced fertilizer application could lower crop yields and tighten global food supplies.
Trump says the decision to bomb Iran came after advice from Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and Pete Hegseth.
A real estate developer. A television host. And the president’s son-in-law.
Not intelligence chiefs. Not military command.
The Middle East 🔥 and the global economy now lives with the consequences of that advice.
This is the Omni Score Oscillator I am building - It currently looks at RSI, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, CCI, MFI, Williams %R, Z-Score, Chaikin Money Flow, Ultimate Oscillator, Keltner Channels, Anchored VWAP and throws off a bull/bear conviction % .....good results so far! $SPY $ES ...currently saying to BTFD
Every major correction of the last cycle starts the same way
First the 8/13 EMA crossed down
Then the 8/21 crosses
• Covid crash
• 2022 bear market
• Tariff selloff
The 8/13 just crossed again
Most won’t notice until the market is already -15%
Pull up the weekly $QQQ
Qullamaggie on Track and Trade Stocks With Triple Digit EPS and Revenue Growth
“This EXPI has triple-digit EPS and revenue, bro. It’s going straight up. This is what happens, guys. This is why you should keep track of all of these high-growth stocks with momentum, okay? They need to be in a watchlist. You need to keep track of this. This thing is up 1000% in like eight months or something.
Another one is FUTU, okay? Another one, triple-digit EPS and revenue growth. Look at this thing; it’s up like what? Also, 1000% in like eight, nine months, ten months. If you’re looking for an edge, one place to start is tracking stocks that have triple-digit EPS and revenue growth. Just a hint.
TIGR too, another one. China brokerage, yeah. Triple digit since March lows. This thing is up 600%. I mean, earnings are fuel, okay? I mean, you have these random pump stocks that can make big moves with no reason really other than, you know, chat rooms and forums are pumping these.
But earnings that’s fuel, okay? It’s like rocket fuel—triple-digit EPS and revenue growth. It’s like rocket fuel; it gives stocks a reason to go up.
One way to trade - you don’t even need to do any scans. Just build a watch list of the fifty or thirty fastest-growing stocks in the stock market, like everything just, you know everything. They don’t necessarily have to be like triple-digit EPS and revenue growth, but everything is that say fifty percent like mid-high double-digit EPS. Revenue growth or higher, keep them in a watch list.
The top say 50 ones, and just look for setups on those stocks, and you’re gonna outperform the market by a wide margin. Year after year, you don’t need to do any scans at all. You just keep track of that one watchlist with fifty stocks and just look for good setups on those among those.
That’s all you need to do to get a big edge. Now you’re not gonna outperform like every market rally because in some markets cyclicals lead or beaten down stocks lead. But if you only trade the fastest growing stocks, you probably gonna do very well year after year after year. No rocket science involved; you don’t need any fancy indicators.
You don’t need someone on TV to tell you this or that because you already know what works in the stock market.”
BREAKING: Fox News SHATTERS Trump's approval myth, admits to viewers that his approval rating has plummeted to a low of 38%, "they've given him 9 months... and things really haven't improved."
Make sure everyone sees this.