SV

Interested in Tech and Finance. Posting about my research in the companies I invest. Don't buy what I am buying. Do your research. NFA.

[SV @SMVCapital]

@wholemars @JonBryant421 How?

[SV @SMVCapital]

@WisemanCap

[SouthernValue @SouthernValue95]

Narrative: $MSFT is a loser and laggard in AI

Reality: $MSFT disclosed $37B AI ARR in April'26 growing triple digits, larger than Anthropic, OpenAI, or AWS AI run-rates at the same time.

In numerous direct customer checks, dozens of sellside checks, and hundreds of datapoints flowing through CIO surveys this quarter, the voice of the customer is resoundingly clear and defies the prevailing narrative. Microsoft is the leader in AI for large enterperises, not just in Azure but across Office, Cyber, Data/Infra software as well.

Product and commercial execution has only improved in the last couple months. Combined w/ recent pricing action, accelerating alt data (Yipit / M Science), FY27 looks off to a great start!

[SV @SMVCapital]

I completely agree

[Dillon Loomis @DillonLoomis]

With Tesla's Q2 earnings call this week, I'm sadly going in with much different expectations. I really don't know how much we can believe of what Tesla and Elon say

I'm only sharing this with the hope that Elon and Tesla will recalibrate and learn to underpromise and overperform rather than the opposite which creates new, unnecessary attack vectors and disillusionment of many Tesla fans and investors. If these goals are so uncertain, please just don't share them. Say whatever you want internally, but to say them publicly and not even get close does nothing but hurt the company and many following it

In just a few of the most recent calls Elon said the following:

Q2 '25: "I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla's Robotaxi by the end of the year."

Reality: not even close

Q3 '25: "We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year."

Reality: 1

Q3 '25: "We expect to be operating in Nevada, Florida, and Arizona by the end of the year."

Reality: none

Q4 '25: "In terms of taxi vehicles carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point between the Bay Area and Austin. This will probably double every month type of thing."

Reality: number largely stayed flat and Unsupervised is much smaller

I love Tesla and have been a superfan for well over a decade. I'm not here for short term $TSLA performance. But this is far more than just a one-off mistake or single moment of hubris. This is clearly a trend and as someone who holds Tesla to a higher standard, I'd love to see them do better with setting expectations. And further, if you do miss a timeline that was very public, communicating the reasons transparently would go a very long way to maintaining credibility going forward

[Dillon Loomis @DillonLoomis]

With Tesla's Q2 earnings call this week, I'm sadly going in with much different expectations. I really don't know how much we can believe of what Tesla and Elon say

I'm only sharing this with the hope that Elon and Tesla will recalibrate and learn to underpromise and overperform rather than the opposite which creates new, unnecessary attack vectors and disillusionment of many Tesla fans and investors. If these goals are so uncertain, please just don't share them. Say whatever you want internally, but to say them publicly and not even get close does nothing but hurt the company and many following it

In just a few of the most recent calls Elon said the following:

Q2 '25: "I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla's Robotaxi by the end of the year."

Reality: not even close

Q3 '25: "We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year."

Reality: 1

Q3 '25: "We expect to be operating in Nevada, Florida, and Arizona by the end of the year."

Reality: none

Q4 '25: "In terms of taxi vehicles carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point between the Bay Area and Austin. This will probably double every month type of thing."

Reality: number largely stayed flat and Unsupervised is much smaller

I love Tesla and have been a superfan for well over a decade. I'm not here for short term $TSLA performance. But this is far more than just a one-off mistake or single moment of hubris. This is clearly a trend and as someone who holds Tesla to a higher standard, I'd love to see them do better with setting expectations. And further, if you do miss a timeline that was very public, communicating the reasons transparently would go a very long way to maintaining credibility going forward

[SV @SMVCapital]

Accurate!! Lot of people turning bearish on Tesla!!

[Mike P @mikepat711]

TSLA EARNINGS PREVIEW:

-2026 is still the year of the robots. Is today 11:59pm on NYE? Didn’t think so, fuckers.

-5 new Robotaxi cities soon. When? Yes.

-V16 is when it really gets crazy.

-Cybercabs swarming every vacant office building parking lot in USA by Q4. Bookmark this.

Bears shook, haters cooked. Everything is free.

[Mike P @mikepat711]

TSLA EARNINGS PREVIEW:

-2026 is still the year of the robots. Is today 11:59pm on NYE? Didn’t think so, fuckers.

-5 new Robotaxi cities soon. When? Yes.

-V16 is when it really gets crazy.

-Cybercabs swarming every vacant office building parking lot in USA by Q4. Bookmark this.

Bears shook, haters cooked. Everything is free.

[SV @SMVCapital]

@joecarlsonshow you worried about $NFLX. Do you like the results?

[SV @SMVCapital]

@cperruna would you be getting in to $NFLX again?

[SV @SMVCapital]

@WisemanCap $MSFT to 600 and $META to 1000 💪

[Anni @anni_sen]

Memory crunch
Estimates are for $1.5T capex spend in 2027 with 40% of that going to memory.

Big Tech companies are set to spend around $1.5 trillion on global cloud and AI infrastructure in 2027, and BofA analysts estimate memory will represent around 35%-40% of that spending. Long-term supply agreements and an unprecedented supply crunch, with little additional capacity coming online until midway through 2027 at the earliest, should extend the memory cycle for at least another year. -Barrons
$MU $SNDK $DRAM $SKHY

[Kaushik @WisemanCap]

Look at that PE for NVDA MSFT META - BofA

[SV @SMVCapital]

@ICannot_Enough @ICannot_Enough the problem is growth rate has slowed down, the reason stock is not going up. Once they accelerate the growth again then we can see some good upside

[SV @SMVCapital]

@MrBeast 10000

[SV @SMVCapital]

@niccruzpatane Yeah I agree but if Kia EV9 had FSD, it would sell more because people do like boxy cars plus EV9 is more comfortable and has more space

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

Tesla Self-Driving in the @boringcompany Vegas Loop

[Bourbon Capital @BourbonCap]

When people start complaining about $MSFT CEO, $GOOG CEO and $META CEO... its time to buy

[SV @SMVCapital]

@pdicarlotrader $NVDA $RBRK

[SV @SMVCapital]

@TheRonnieVShow why?

[SV @SMVCapital]

@BullTradeFinder RBRK