Good beagle boy

Mostly market musings

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Prediction: decent likelihood Grok Bot takes material market share in consumer from OAI / Claude

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

@hooeem u wrote this with Hermes didn't u...big clap

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Only when you spend hours a day vibe coding do you start to realise that at certain times of the day GPT will become slow AF

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Grok Bot is fantastic

Cursor acquisition is genius by Elon tbh

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Increasingly tempted to hit "ask Claude please" in reply to inane questions at work

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

The normie is nowhere close to discovering agentic AI that is run overnight

And you think we are topping out in tokens?

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

@MikeFritzell Add Trump tweet dude

Above S tier

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Level of finX bearishness / capitulation on semis/AI right now

Either means we're at the bottom of a fresh generational rip or it really is all over, hard to tell which

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

@thefish64 @tomfgoodwin Yes agree everything is available in Tokyo but feel he is talking about random towns / resorts / tier 2 cities

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

@degentradingLSD No way US gov going to lose ground to China in the race to control the singularity on a long end sell off, they need to bring oil prices down to resolve this which quickens getting to a deal with Iran

Why I am sceptical of the GLD and commods rally imo

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Kind of nuts how quick some people are to discount the combined progress of millions of the world’s smartest and most motivated individuals with unlimited capital, network/access and leveraging on literal superintelligence that already exists…yeah no shit, the next model iterations with better datasets and that can support longer context windows are going to blow minds

But then again a lot of people can’t see beyond their own egos

In America enough capital plus human ingenuity always creates outcomes that reinforce the original expectations, it’s a self fulfilling prophecy after a while. To give another example on the same theme, the gravity that Elon’s trillion buys kind of biases $SPCX towards being a high growth compounder…hard to picture any other way from here in the medium term

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

@LunarThinkTrade Maybe it is top speed for shorter context and fades in longer context tasks

Still a place for this

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Ah yes…LBO at 200bn+

So that is a mere 100bn+ of high yield / private credit supply

Casual equity cheque of 100bn give or take

Reality is that LBOs are still stuck in the 50bn range; EA, WDAY etc. and even these are considered massive for new debt supply. WBD probably the biggest LBO of recent times - Ellisons backing it though so a bit different

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Brett is on the money here

My work week at one of top named funds more like 12h days from early morning, longer days in earnings/blow ups, logging in on weekend mornings when looking at an interesting name/theme and wanting to accelerate my understanding

I’d say that a 65-70h week is minimum for most to stay sharp on models and coverage, 85-90h+ is diminishing returns territory for reasons you state

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Okay time for Korean bbq with the gf for my bday

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Same with depreciation. When I was in my twenties, same old face in the mirror every day looking back at me…easy to think that this youth will last forever

Now in early thirties, some grey hairs, slight tiredness around the eyes, a bit slower. Depreciation at work

My precious parents and the house I grew up in, still beautiful but a bit more frayed around the edges…nothing lasts forever, the reality of asset depreciation starting to sink in on a everyday and cellular level

Hard to price these things at 25, they are now obvious at 32

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Musk summarised inflation so simply and brilliantly in this one recent interview he did as: the ratio of goods/services to money

Hard to have lived this ratio change as a young man, whereas a curious and observant mind over 30 begins to realise that perpetual inflation is a feature, not a bug, of Western societies

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

Investoors under 30 will struggle to understand
- inflation
- depreciation
- cyclicality

3x time-based concepts at the heart of investing

[Good beagle boy @SP199393]

I’ve got a lot of love for Leopold and Situational Awareness. I dig the 4x leverage worth of conviction / fortune favours the bold mindset