Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceXAI make up a very large, yet concentrated portion of Private Equity, between those firms about 200-500b in derivatives, financial instruments, and especially SPVs are trading without explicit approval from the underlying private companies.
Because of this, all of that money could essentially go 'poof' causing a massive shockwave in the Private Equity space that will echo throughout the entire inflated tech and finance sectors.
This will not only destroy some of the massive ballooned valuations that we see these private companies trading at, but it will also cause insane ripple effects for their IPOs, subsequent lawsuits for all of the illegal brokers that initiated and raised using these vehicles, sketchy secondary grey markets, and cause hundreds if not thousands of investment funds, firms and angels to lose every cent they invested, because what they bought wasn't one of the big boys, they bought a Special Purpose Vehicle.
And that special purpose was to fuck everyone that bought it.
Welcome to the $SPV show.
🚨 LATEST: "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry warns the Nasdaq 100 is mirroring the dot-com bubble peak.
"We are witnessing history. In the stock market, that is not a good thing."
Sounds good, but just wait for the IPO, the $SPV that you got an email about....
Well, lets just say they call them Special Purpose Vehicles for a reason.
That purpose is to sell you nothing at above market prices.
Imagine owning an Anthropic SPV at sub $100B valuation, sitting on a juicy 10-20x on IPO, and you come to find out your shares are fraudulent and you own nothing.
Yikes
SPV even single layer, are no match for liquid stock, 2 other data pt from my own book/friends circle
1️⃣ Invested in Twitter '22 Privatization: Looking at ~2.5x gross at the $1.5T SpaceX IPO
2️⃣ Invested in xAI '25 SPV ($120B entry): with dilution/fee and all that, i will be lucky to clear 2x net ... 😭
Meanwhile, NVDA/TSMC and the high-conviction semi stack have absolutely smoked these returns, minus the carry, the lock-ups, and the SPV distribution hassle ..
Back on my SPV/12G soapbox for one more second: the real fallout here isn’t just policy. It’s game theory.
The entire unicorn ecosystem spent years pretending there wasn’t a massive shadow secondary market in private company stock:
unsanctioned SPVs
board-unapproved transfers
participation rights
synthetic exposure
second-layer SPVs holding first-layer SPVs holding founder shares
Everybody knew. Everybody looked the other way. Everybody got rich.
But now?
Now incentives have changed.
And everybody and their brother is about to relearn one of the oldest legal truths on earth: possession is nine-tenths of the law.
Because whoever currently controls the shares, distributions, liquidity proceeds, or economic rights is suddenly sitting in the power seat.
The guy who sold $1m of exposure that later becomes worth $100m now has every incentive in the world to suddenly become VERY interested in:
transfer restrictions
charter consent rights
void vs voidable arguments
beneficial ownership technicalities
rescission claims
And they won’t care about being exiled from “Ventureville” if the upside is generational money. Somebody is absolutely going to try this on.
That means the new risk for buyers isn’t necessarily outright loss. It’s litigation slippage. Duration slippage. Legal fee slippage. Delaware Chancery blood sport while courts sort out what everyone really owned.
The balance of equities is obviously with the economic buyers. The entire market knew this shadow system existed.
But once billions are on the line, expect very sharp people making very sharp technical arguments to unwind transactions they were perfectly happy to cash at the time.
Welcome to the arena.
founder friend just got scammed from Anthropic secondaries
apparently on the call they claimed "direct access to the cap table"
so my friend pretty quickly wired $500k
didn't check the fine print
they now own 5% of "Ant Tropic", a luxury vacation destination for ants
i told them they need to immediately pivot the business to AI because there are 20 quadrillion ants on earth, and the TAM is huge
If everyone is paying 10, 20, 30%+ in FEES to get exposure to risky pre-IPO equity in these far less than attractive $SPV entities, so they can lock up hundreds of billions at crazy valuations... what happens on IPO day when literally everyone is ready to cash in and the "buyers" they are waiting for are standing next to them also ready to sell...
Anthropic is dropping a big statement on secondary sales of its shares.
Anyone who has sold Anthropic shares via direct sales, forward contracts, or tokenized securities is "likely engaged in fraud.”
A lot of SPV’s guys are about to find out what a subpoena looks like…
So why don’t they want their stock trading on secondaries? 🤔
I've seen a lot of people offer you to invest in private companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Stripe etc and you should really avoid these offers I think
It's always like "yeah bro I know a way to invest I'll DM"
Then it always turns out be some 3 or more layered SPV (special purpose vehicle)
Which is essentially the original person who invested in them wants to sell his stock but legally can't (it requires board approval to sell and they usually won't allow you to, called right of first refusal (ROFR)) so instead they set up an SPV which they sign a contract with to pay it whatever the shares are worth at exit
But then you read the fine print and there's 3 layers of SPVs who take % management fees and a large % of the gains
So even if their stock goes up, you barely profit from it because the fees are so insane
That is of course if you profit at all as these companies will mark the shares as void and worthless if they find out
So yes it's mostly a scam/racket you should stay away from unless you get a really good deal and read the fine print!
You should always try invest directly by asking, they probably say no but you can always ask! I ask staff or founders on DM when I am talking to them about a bug or feature idea for example, it helps to have followers but even if you don't you can always ask
Especially if you're influential in a specific topic, many startups love to have you invest but you have to be early usually
Anyway avoid SPVs or at least read the fine print!
Anthropic is cracking down on the gray market in its shares
Those SPVs are looking fragile
It says that many SPV/tokenized transactions may be legally void and buyers may end up with zero recognized shareholder rights
This is a major shock for some family office investors
They could discover they own a legal claim on a vehicle… not actual equity in Anthropic
It's a timely reminder that exposure is not the same as ownership and SPVs come without guarantees
As private companies stay private longer, this could be the start of a fight between founders trying to control cap tables and investors desperate for pre-IPO AI exposure
Watch this space
If someone invested in a late stage Ai SPV and it might be worthless, can they write that off?
And what if they already declared some gains on the initial value etc…
Asking for some friends…
If Anthropic deems all secondary sales of Anthropic stock to be void
Does that mean the original buyer retains financial interest even after selling it away?
Lawsuit territory
You put $100K into a triple-layer Anthropic SPV at ~$350B. After fees, you've actually deployed ~$68K.
A $1.3T IPO returns ~2.75x after dilution. You net ~$30K.
Your layered SPV got you 68% Anthropic exposure. GOOG gets you 14%, and — for completeness — founding a four-person polycule in Bernal where two members are MTS at Anthropic gets you 22%, scaling to 31% if one of them has badge access to the office. Manifold has this trading sideways.
Meanwhile the fourth-layer SPV exists. I have seen it. It is GP'd from a Hayes Valley basement by a man who only eats raw liver and his returns are, inexplicably, fine. The fifth layer is Lighthaven. The sixth layer is a guy named Amish who whispers "Claude" into his Mac Mini at 3am and charges 2/20.
The 32% you lost in SPV fees did not, in fact, fund a Miami coke habit. It funded:
- $11K to a peptide dealer named Brook who has a Substack
- $8K to the GP's au pair, who is also his cofounder, who is writing a memoir
- $6K to a single Eames chair
- $4K to a prediction market shorting his own fund
- $3K to a Waymo that has been circling Dolores Park since March 2024 with no passenger
Here's what you should have done instead: take the $100K, drive to Sunnyvale, find an H100, marry it.
California is community property. On exit you own half, free and clear. That's an unbeatable tax basis. You also get to file jointly with the model that ate your cap stack.
You're welcome.