SPX Trading

Markets, Real Estate, Canada

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

The complacency we see today does bear some resemblance to February 2020, but there's also a crucial difference. Covid was a destructive economic force that was outside of any person's control. The trade war, in contrast, is a destructive economic policy that is entirely under one person's control. It can be walked back at any moment, and the experience has confirmed that it will be, if it needs to be. Yes, residual economic damage will occur, but just like with Covid, the market is not going to care about it if it sees a clear path to resolution.

The model that I'm using here is a simple trading range. If the market performs well, good time to sell. Trump will be emboldened to go with his instincts, which means we will get bad economic policies that weigh on the market.

If the market sells off aggressively in response to those policies, good time to buy. Pressure will build on Trump to walk them back, and keep building until he walks them back, which he eventually will, as he has shown.

Now, you can't play this kind of game very long without causing a recession, but if it's a recession that has occurred for known reasons, with the underlying cause walked back, and rate cuts are incoming, that's not going to cause the kind of downside that Covid did. Covid had the potential to be truly catastrophic, and it wasn't until the tail got chopped off by extreme stimulus, learning more about it, and progress on treatment, that it became an investment opportunity.

Another thing to realize is that, as with any correction, people get habituated to the "scary thing", and start fearing it less. Over time, it has to get worse to continue to induce the same level of fear and panic. And that's less likely to occur when policymakers have explicit control over it.