At @CoinDCX, my team and I have spent years working through crypto regulation in India and we track global developments too very closely.
One development we have been watching is Europe's MiCA experiment: the Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, the EU's attempt at one law for the whole industry.
It pulled off something genuinely hard: one rulebook across 27 countries, one licence to operate everywhere. Everyone calls it the model to emulate.
But we've come to believe the rulebook was the easy part. What Europe is running into now is the harder question: not what the rules say, but who actually enforces them.
Sharing some thoughts below. 🧵
Crypto is thriving because of the lack of regulatory clarity. In the last couple of years, a lot of F&O traders have migrated to crypto because of the low margins and ridiculous leverage they get in crypto F&O—leverage as high as 100x to 200x.
From @moneycontrolcom article (link in comments).
Many Crypto Influencers advised people to engage in futures trading with 1x leverage to avoid taxes.
As a result, 80% of India's crypto trading volume shifted to futures.
They aimed to save 30% in taxes, but instead, they lost 100% of their capital.
BREAKING: 🇮🇳 Over 80% of India's crypto trading volume is now in futures, per Moneycontrol.
• Reason: 1% TDS on spot trading (not futures).
• 70–80% of crypto derivatives traders are losing money.
• Retail investors account for ~70% of crypto futures trading.
🔥 LATEST: The Linux Foundation has launched the x402 Foundation to develop open payment standards for AI agents, APIs and applications.
Its 40 members include AWS, Google, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, Ripple and Circle.
BREAKING: 🇮🇳80% OF INDIA'S CRYPTO TRADING VOLUME MOVED TO FUTURES.
Around 70% of futures activity comes from retail investors.
One big reason is the 1% TDS on spot trades, while crypto futures currently avoid this tax.
- Moneycontrol
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang - Imagine if the world suddenly needed 1,000x more cars or 2000x more airplanes in just 2 years.
That's similar to how fast AI computing demand is growing.
INDIA COLLECTS APROX ₹706 CRORE IN CRYPTO TAX
Now RBI told Parliament that crypto shouldn't be LEGAL!
Does this make sense?
On July 2, the RBI faced the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance for the first time on VDAs.
Its message: don't legalize, they threaten the economy.
But the government's own rulebook says:
↳ Finance Act 2022: crypto = defined VDA
↳ Section 115BBH: 30% tax on gains
↳ 1% TDS on every single trade
↳ FIU-IND handles registration and AML
CBDT even sent notices to 44,000+ taxpayers for undisclosed crypto income.
YOU DON'T AUDIT AN ILLEGAL ASSET...
Lets check Previous Statements:
- RBI banned crypto in 2018.
-Supreme Court reversed it in 2020. -Now only Parliament holds the power.
-39.3M verified users. Chainalysis No. 1 for 3 years.
Whan do you think, Ban or Regulation?
🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL
I've watched multiple full market cycles, but I've NEVER seen this kinda setup
More than $10 billion in longs sitting below the market.
If Bitcoin drops to $40,000, EVERYTHING gets wiped out.
And once those liquidations begin, the selling can feed itself.
→ Longs get liquidated.
→ Price dumps harder.
→ More longs get liquidated.
That is how a real cascade starts.
The same influencers who said, “The Bitcoin market cycle bottom is already in,” will get completely rekt.
But here is the part nobody wants to hear:
That will be the exact moment to buy.
Not now.
Not after another fake bounce.
Exactly when the market feels the most painful, brutal and completely hopeless.
Look at every previous Bitcoin cycle:
2018 → Bottom
2022 → Bottom
2026 → The same setup is forming again
Once that liquidity gets wiped out, the market cycle bottom will no longer be a question.
This is how real bottoms form.
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