SZ Crypto

Systematic crypto trend following. Every trade posted, wins and losses. Free guide: 7 checks before you pay for any signal service 👇

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

I lost money in crypto for years before I figured out why.

I started dabbling almost a decade ago. Bought whatever had hype behind it. Lost money on LUNA, and on another coin I can't even remember the name of.

Then COVID hit, inflation took off and I went looking for somewhere to put my savings. Bitcoin's fixed supply sold me. I put my money into BTC and ETH in late 2022, right at the start of the bull run.

I watched it climb. Then I watched other coins climb faster.

So I sold and rotated into higher-beta coins like SOL. I rotated right at the top. SOL fell harder than BTC or ETH, and I gave back every dollar of gains. I was lucky to get out at break even.

That taught me the lesson everything I do is now built on:

Every trade is three decisions. What to buy. When to buy. When to sell.

Get one wrong and the other two don't matter. And no human makes all three calls consistently while watching prices move.

So I stopped trying. I built trend-following systems that make all three decisions with rules instead of emotion.

Every day I post the results publicly, wins and losses.

Ever round-tripped a winning trade back to nothing? Tell me below 👇

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@Cointelegraph "Bumpy" is one way to describe Kospi -8% and SK Hynix -11% in a single session.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@TedPillows $780M of longs liquidated in the last 24 hours. Funding now at the day's high.

Some lessons take more than one day to learn.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

Kospi -8% with a trading halt. Nikkei -5%. BTC tags $80K.

$950M liquidated in 24 hours, over 80% of it longs.

Hot PPI then wicked BTC to $79.8K.

Now it's back above the daily open.

Price went nowhere. Leverage got wiped out.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@TedPillows Clean sweep. The real test is overhead: both 50-day averages sit at $2,495 and $2,554. That's where late shorts will try to reload.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

$814M liquidated in 24 hours. 170K traders wiped out.

Plenty of them were right about direction. They were wrong about size.

One rule would have saved most of them:

Never risk more than 1 to 2% of your account on a single trade.

At 2% risk, ten losses in a row still leaves you with 82% of your account.
At 10x leverage with no stop, one bad candle can leave you with nothing.

You don’t need to be right more often. You need to survive long enough to be right.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@cryptogoos The Fed controls today's interest rate. The 10-year yield is the market's guess about the next 10 years. Hiking into a job market that just added 29K jobs makes people expect a slowdown, and slowdowns lead to cuts later. So short-term rates go up and long-term rates go down.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@RaoulGMI Fundamentals tell you what survives. Price tells you when to own it. A 70% drawdown punishes anyone who only watches one.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@DaanCrypto 50 days of chop is where accounts quietly bleed. Not from one big loss, but from a hundred small trades.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

$814M liquidated in 24 hours. 170K traders wiped out.

Plenty of them were right about direction. They were wrong about size.

One rule would have saved most of them:Never risk more than 1 to 2% of your account on a single trade.

At 2% risk, ten losses in a row still leaves you with 82% of your account.
At 10x leverage with no stop, one bad candle can leave you with nothing.

You don’t need to be right more often. You need to survive long enough to be right.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@TedPillows This week's low wicked about $600 under the 50W EMA and closed back above it. The bulls defended that level almost to the dollar.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@RaoulGMI The trap is that incentives can fake the loop. Airdrops and yield buy users who look like adoption, then leave when the rewards dry up. Real persistence is whoever's still there after the incentives stop.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

BTC down 3.4% today. To get back to even, it needs +3.5%.

That gap grows fast:

-10% needs +11%
-25% needs +33%
-50% needs +100%
-75% needs +300%

This is why cutting losses early matters more than catching tops. Small losses are easy to recover from. Big ones can take years.

Most of the 50% drawdowns people sat through last cycle started as a -10% they decided to hold.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@cryptorover ETH is a fraction of BTC's size and nearly matched it in liquidations. That's where the leverage was hiding.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@trader_capitals @cryptogoos Agreed, and today's 3.4% drop is that test playing out live. A retracement that flushes leverage is healthy. One that breaks the levels buyers defended last month isn't. We'll know which this is fairly soon.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@Cointelegraph Last time the premium was this deep (June to August), BTC was carving out its bottom in the $60Ks. It's back at summer-low levels now, but price is holding around $82K. US selling at that intensity without the matching price drop is the interesting part.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@Cointelegraph The part that matters for BTC holders: miners usually close funding gaps by issuing shares, taking on debt or selling their bitcoin reserves. If it's the last one, that's steady supply hitting the market while everyone's busy watching ETF flows.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@Cointelegraph Whoever's framing is right, $800M against tens of billions in losses shows how little of a crash ever gets made whole. Compensation is a goodwill gesture on the exchange's terms, not insurance. The only real protection is position sizing and leverage you can survive.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

@TedPillows Samsung and SK Hynix make up roughly half that heatmap, both down about 4%. That reads more like a chip and AI selloff dragging the index than broad panic. The one to watch is whether US semis follow tonight, since that's what usually spills into risk assets like crypto.

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

https://t.co/HSV4RwEzGZ

[SZ Crypto @SZcryptos]

Weekly update 📊 (returns since strategy start)
Strategy 2: -6.99%
Strategy 3: -16.95%
Strategy 4: +7.58%
Portfolio: -4.24%
BTC benchmark: +17.37%

A rough week. Last Monday the portfolio was +4.8%. A week of chop, liquidations and fake breakouts took it negative.

This is the cost of trend following. You pay in sideways markets so you're in position for the trending ones.

Every number posted, good weeks and bad 👇